ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[jaxfladude]

Folks, Gaston will be back..

Not good

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 425
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON WHICH DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW
ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[ColinDelia]

Easy, they needed to check another name off the list to get the prediction numbers!

Fine with me. I'm pro hurricane climatologists!

[ROCK]

no doubt he will be back....probably be a she once in the carib.... since it is a remant low will it still retain the name if it does regenerate? Remember TD 10 back in 05 became Katrina.....

[fasterdisaster]

no doubt he will be back....probably be a she once in the carib.... since it is a remant low will it still retain the name if it does regenerate? Remember TD 10 back in 05 became Katrina.....

Unless it merges with another weather system, no, it will still be Gaston. Remember Ivan in 2004.

[ColinDelia]

Really starting to think the TUTT in the central Atlantic is gonna put a damper on the comeback. How are the models handling this TUTT? Anyone figure it out yet?

HPC at 1pm.

A TUTT IS DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND IT WILL EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ISLES BY 30-36 HRS...WITH A CLOSED/CUT OFF LOW TO THEN
FORM NEAR 20N 60W THROUGH 42-48 HRS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRESS TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY 60-72 HRS...TO MEANDER
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO/NORTH OF VENEZUELA. IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...A 50-65KT JET MAXIMA
IS TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL
BE OF CONCERN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSIDERABLY WEAKER
MAXIMA OF 35-45KT WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE EAST AS THE TUTT LOW
RELOCATES TOWARDS HISPANIOLA BY 84-96 HRS. AT MID LEVELS A GOOD
REFLECTION OF THE TUTT PATTERN IS EXPECTED...WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC TO MOVE ALONG 50W/53W BY 48 HRS...AND
ACROSS THE ORINOCO DELTA REGION/ISLAND CHAIN TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BY 72-84 HRS. AT 700 HPA THE GFS NOW SHOWS A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN AND ENTERING THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY 96-108 HRS...WITH
FAIRLY STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION TO ACCOMPANY THIS
PERTURBATION. ALTHOUGH STRONGER AT 700 HPA...THE CORRESPONDING 850
HPA

[Macrocane]

no doubt he will be back....probably be a she once in the carib.... since it is a remant low will it still retain the name if it does regenerate? Remember TD 10 back in 05 became Katrina.....

Unless it merges with another weather system, no, it will still be Gaston. Remember Ivan in 2004.

Don't go that far, remember Colin from 2010? LOL

[Migle]

no doubt he will be back....probably be a she once in the carib.... since it is a remant low will it still retain the name if it does regenerate? Remember TD 10 back in 05 became Katrina.....

Yep, there's a good chance that something like that could happen, but Katrina was TD12 and I think this one would just be Gaston again.

[cycloneye]

00z Best track

AL, 09, 2010090300, , BEST, 0, 137N, 402W, 25, 1009, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[ColinDelia]

[b]00z Best track

AL, 09, 2010090300, , BEST, 0, 137N, 402W, 25, 1009, TD

That's the rainshower you pointed out earlier

[CrazyC83]

00z Best track

AL, 09, 2010090300, , BEST, 0, 137N, 402W, 25, 1009, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

TD has to be a mistake, it should be DB or LO...unless advisories are to resume or there was an error...

[cycloneye]

00z Best track

AL, 09, 2010090300, , BEST, 0, 137N, 402W, 25, 1009, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

TD has to be a mistake, it should be DB or LO...unless advisories are to resume or there was an error...

It has to be an error because I dont think they will resume advisories the way the system looks now with a lone thunderstorm.

[Gustywind]

SSD
02/2345 UTC 14.1N 40.3W T1.0/1.5 GASTON

[SootyTern]

But wouldn't that be like this season for Gaston to spring back to life once we've all written him off for now?

[RL3AO]

They've all been struggling till they hit 50w.

Yep. Danielle and Earl didn't do much until then.

[HURAKAN]

They've all been struggling till they hit 50w.

Yep. Danielle and Earl didn't do much until then.

Neither did Fiona.

[DESTRUCTION5]

^^^ LOL...Fiona Still hasn't..

[HURAKAN]

^^^ LOL...Fiona Still hasn't..

60 mph storm is pretty respectable

[srainhoutx]

Perhaps one of the Pro Mets can chime in, but I'm seeing some suggestions of updrafts heading E into the Western Basin. Correct me if I wrong.

[jasons2k]

At least they said "DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW" instead of "Dissipated".

I do think Gaston will be back and needs to be watched very carefully.