EPAC: Ex Tropical Depression TEN-E

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 31 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THE LOW IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THESE WINDS COULD
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[HurrMark]

Someone please change the heading to reflect the E-Pac...thanks...

[HURAKAN]

Someone please change the heading to reflect the E-Pac...thanks...

Oops, thanks!

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312356
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 31 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT...BUT THESE WINDS COULD
DECREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011153
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED SEP 1 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

This system is reaching the limits of where it can develop as the temps are about turn cold.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PHNC 011430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2N 107.1W TO 17.8N 110.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 011200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.5N 107.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.5N 107.7W,
APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 010356Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH AN EQUATORWARD
BURST OF WESTERLIES THAT ARE POSITIONED TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST TO RELAX AS THE DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021430Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Up to 80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED SEP 1 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Migle]

Stays at 80%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED SEP 1 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

[Chacor]

ABPZ20 KNHC 020536
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED SEP 1 2010 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES
WEST LONGITUDE.. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING
THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. $$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/CANGIALOSI

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 2 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[HURAKAN]

latest

[Migle]

Looks good right now. Should be a TD at anytime now.

[Migle]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU SEP 2 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA
MEXICO HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM AT ANY TIME...BUT THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER COOLER WATERS BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

[Brent]

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO HAVE BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Parungo]

Best Track: Tropical Depression 10E


EP, 10, 2010090306, , BEST, 0, 196N, 1094W, 30, 1001, TD

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102010
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 109.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUT A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102010
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED A
FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO HAS
ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE CIRCULATION CENTER LIES NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE ON THE CONVECTIVE
MASS...VALIDATING SHIPS MODEL ANALYSES WHICH INDICATE MODERATELY
EASTERLY WIND SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...A 0458 UTC ASCAT
PASS INDICATED A SWATH OF 25 KT WINDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ALTHOUGH
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 2.5/35 KT AT 0600
UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET MORE CONSERVATIVELY AT 30
KT...CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS. ALTHOUGH THE
DEPRESSION COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER...EASTERLY SHEAR AND ITS
PROJECTED PATH OVER COOLER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN LINE
WITH THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS...NONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7...ALTHOUGH WITH A SKETCHY
HISTORY OF THE CENTER LOCATION DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS
ESTIMATE IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION
TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE CYCLONE BECOME SHALLOWER LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST PRIOR TO
DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 19.7N 109.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 20.1N 110.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 20.5N 112.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 20.8N 113.7W 25 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 21.1N 115.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 06/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 032032
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102010
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010


THE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS TODAY. THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME
APPARENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION. A
1726Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF BELIEVABLE 25-30 KT VECTORS IN
THE DEPRESSION. IN ADDITION... A 1420Z AMSU PASS INDICATED THAT THE
SYSTEM CONTAINED 27 KT MAXIMUM WINDS FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE.
THUS...THE INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECAY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL SSTS...
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...AND MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36
HOURS...BUT IF THE CONVECTION GOES POOF THIS EVENING...THE SYSTEM
MAY NOT REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH LONGER.

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 8 TO 10 KT IN THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.2N 110.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 20.5N 112.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 20.7N 114.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 20.8N 116.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 20.8N 119.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE