ATL: GASTON - Models

[South Texas Storms]

ha! finally a model thats puts this into the gulf! i think there will be several more west trends in the models in the coming days...dont write off gaston at all yet.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Please show an image of the initialization that doesn't exhibit a closed system. Maybe I am looking at the wrong chart.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _000.shtml

No isobars and the X mean an open low at 850 mb which is near the surface.

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

384 hours

Texas/Mexico border

[South Texas Storms]

goodness gracious that is one rediculous weather map on the gfs at 348 hours!

[Vortex]

H+300 Direct hit on SFL


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_300l.gif

[Ivanhater]

[Vortex]

Massive storm heading for texas at H+384




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

[KWT]

Not too unrealistic run from the 18z, if it reaches the Gulf then the pattern supports a track IMO right the way across the Gulf...

[blazess556]

Not too unrealistic run from the 18z, if it reaches the Gulf then the pattern supports a track IMO right the way across the Gulf...

gfs has been on fire lately.

[SootyTern]

Won't verify, but that GFS shows a hurricane right over my house on my birthday

[Florida1118]

Won't verify, but that GFS shows a hurricane right over my house on my birthday

Happy almost birthday! Eh, Until it reforms and comes closer im not a bit concerned

[Duke95]

Please show an image of the initialization that doesn't exhibit a closed system. Maybe I am looking at the wrong chart.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _000.shtml

No isobars and the X mean an open low at 850 mb which is near the surface.

Thank you. Learn something new every day.

I think it still has an X on it as late as 84 hours but I see what you are trying to say.

[andrewsurvivor]

Yet in a way comforting. Perhaps a pro met can give the actual odds but after tracking storms for 30 years seems the one place it usually does not make landfall is where models project 10 days out though I think the story here is the shifting patterns allowing storms to travel further west. I'm thinking this is going to be a stressful period coming up for all of us. And btw, you guys are awesome...really enjoy the opions and expertise!

[ROCK]

thank goodness that is at 300hr-384hr....still think FL Panhandle with Pensacola in the NE quad....

[Ivanhater]

thank goodness that is at 300hr-384hr....still think FL Panhandle with Pensacola in the NE quad....

I'm thinking down the coast a bit to some city called Houston..heard of it?

Just joking

[perk]

Geez that is one big storm.

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL doesn't dissipate 09L.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation


WHXX04 KWBC 022348
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON 09L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.5 39.4 275./ 6.0
6 13.2 40.0 241./ 6.4
12 13.1 40.3 246./ 3.3
18 13.1 40.5 292./ 2.1
24 13.3 41.0 283./ 5.7
30 13.6 41.7 296./ 6.9
36 13.9 42.7 284./10.5
42 14.3 43.8 292./11.3
48 14.2 45.0 268./10.9
54 14.4 46.2 276./12.0
60 14.6 47.2 284./10.5
66 15.0 48.4 288./11.9
72 15.1 50.2 273./17.3
78 15.3 51.6 277./13.7
84 15.3 52.8 268./11.2
90 15.2 54.5 268./17.0
96 15.3 56.2 273./15.7
102 15.4 57.2 275./10.6
108 15.9 58.8 288./15.6
114 15.9 60.3 271./14.5
120 16.0 61.8 275./14.5
126 16.1 63.0 271./11.6

[Gustywind]

18z GFDL doesn't dissipate 09L.


WHXX04 KWBC 022348
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON 09L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.5 39.4 275./ 6.0
6 13.2 40.0 241./ 6.4
12 13.1 40.3 246./ 3.3
18 13.1 40.5 292./ 2.1
24 13.3 41.0 283./ 5.7
30 13.6 41.7 296./ 6.9
36 13.9 42.7 284./10.5
42 14.3 43.8 292./11.3
48 14.2 45.0 268./10.9
54 14.4 46.2 276./12.0
60 14.6 47.2 284./10.5
66 15.0 48.4 288./11.9
72 15.1 50.2 273./17.3
78 15.3 51.6 277./13.7
84 15.3 52.8 268./11.2
90 15.2 54.5 268./17.0
96 15.3 56.2 273./15.7
102 15.4 57.2 275./10.6
108 15.9 58.8 288./15.6
114 15.9 60.3 271./14.5
120 16.0 61.8 275./14.5
126 16.1 63.0 271./11.6

Does not dissipate it Cycloneye and even more show a direct impact on Guadeloupe as many others models have showed it much of the day.