ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Evac4]

If you look at the MIMIC, you can see the bigger eye wall taking over and going straight north. It looks like the west wall is going to run right into the OB. I don't have the best weather vocabulary, but ya know what I'm saying. Not real sure I'm doing the link right either.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2010_07L/webManager/basicJavaDisplay.html

[fox]

If Earl is dying out like this I suspect it will be no problem when it reaches Nova Scotia? A logical guess anyway?

[vbhoutex]

I can definitely see an east of due north movement now. That should keep the sustained hurricane force winds east of the Outer Banks.

Looking at several different radar loops, it appears to me that it is still going to be a close call for the OBX. What is the heading you are getting now for the track? To my untrained eye and using only the radar loops I would have to guess that the center would pass within 30 miles of the OBX. I would think with the double eyewall and a possible ERC going on(?) that the winds might spread out some also. Would you please explain to me what I am missing?

[mf_dolphin]

If you look at the MIMIC, you can see the bigger eye wall taking over and going straight north. It looks like the west wall is going to run right into the OB. I don't have the best weather vocabulary, but ya know what I'm saying. Not real sure I'm doing the link right either.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2010_07L/webManager/basicJavaDisplay.html

I think you handled both just right.

[mf_dolphin]

If Earl is dying out like this I suspect it will be no problem when it reaches Nova Scotia? A logical guess anyway?

Not sure if I'd agree. Looks like another eyewll replacement cycle just completed and it's over the Gulf Stream now. Still time to at least maintain some strength before it gets to you.

[mf_dolphin]

Recon just reported 121 kts at flight level and a 50nm eye. Earl's still got some punch.

[toto]

~

I'm watching, waiting for the cloaked gnome to use His club.

[fasterdisaster]

As a matter of fact, the downgrade to Category 2 might have been a bit premature, as 121 kt FL winds were just found.

[Malcome]

So, what do you guys think? Could Earl either grow, or just maintain itself over the next few days. I mean, the humidity and heat here in Nova Scotia has been CRAZY the last few days, and will be the same tomorrow. I always thought high heat, warm water, and humidity was good food for a hurricane, but then, I am just going on limited knowledge. Should we be ready for a Hurricane, or a tropical storm?

[mf_dolphin]

So, what do you guys think? Could Earl either grow, or just maintain itself over the next few days. I mean, the humidity and heat here in Nova Scotia has been CRAZY the last few days, and will be the same tomorrow. I always thought high heat, warm water, and humidity was good food for a hurricane, but then, I am just going on limited knowledge. Should we be ready for a Hurricane, or a tropical storm?

My take is always prepare for the worst and hope for the better. Hard to go wrong that way.

[dizzyfish]

Well the weather doesn't look too friendly at Avalon Pier http://www.avalonpier.com/piercam.html (Kill Devil Hills)

Watching the radar it sure looks like they are gonna get clobbered to me.

Hoping for the best for everyone affected.

[cpdaman]

If you look at the MIMIC, you can see the bigger eye wall taking over and going straight north. It looks like the west wall is going to run right into the OB. I don't have the best weather vocabulary, but ya know what I'm saying. Not real sure I'm doing the link right either.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2010_07L/webManager/basicJavaDisplay.html

yes but that is about 50 min ....old now.....does that update automatically

[fasterdisaster]

With the size of Earl's eye now, as much as a 25-30 mile distance would still result in a direct hit. Let's hope for some more easterly movement.

[Julanne]

Can any pro mets give me an update as to the direction of this beast? I see that it is going NNE at presently. Could we on Cape Cod get a "miss' out of this?

The new models have adjusted to the current motion and shifted to the east a little. The wind field is expanding, so I wouldn't be surprised if the eastern part of Cape Cod sees hurricane force winds for a short period. It shouldn't be any worse than many nor'easters though.

Thank You. I'm ready and I think I'm going to get some sleep now as tomorrow could be a long night. I will check this board peridically through the night. Best wishes to all affected by Earl.

[CrazyC83]

As a matter of fact, the downgrade to Category 2 might have been a bit premature, as 121 kt FL winds were just found.

That supports a 105 kt intensity. Given the lower SFMR, I would have kept it at 100 kt at 0000Z.

[wxman57]

I can definitely see an east of due north movement now. That should keep the sustained hurricane force winds east of the Outer Banks.

Looking at several different radar loops, it appears to me that it is still going to be a close call for the OBX. What is the heading you are getting now for the track? To my untrained eye and using only the radar loops I would have to guess that the center would pass within 30 miles of the OBX. I would think with the double eyewall and a possible ERC going on(?) that the winds might spread out some also. Would you please explain to me what I am missing?

3hr movement 020 deg at 18 kts is what I get off IR satellite. That would put the center about 90 miles east of Hatteras as it passes. Should be enough to keep hurricane force winds offshore (except in gusts).

[Stephanie]

Earl gave us a beautiful sunset with lots of pinks, oranges, blues, etc.

[ConvergenceZone]

unless there's a unforseen change in the track(which shouldn't happen due to the steering currents), the US is about to avoid a damaging a blow....I'm thinking we really lucked out on this one!

[Stephanie]

unless there's a unforeseen change in the track(which shouldn't happen due to the steering currents), the US is about to avoid a damaging a blow....I'm thinking we really lucked out on this one!

I'll keep my fingers crossed. I'll feel more confident when Earl has passed Cape Hatteras and Cape Cod. It definitely could've been a heck of a lot worse than it is looking right now.

[funster]

unless there's a unforseen change in the track(which shouldn't happen due to the steering currents), the US is about to avoid a damaging a blow....I'm thinking we really lucked out on this one!

Hope so, but Earl still has to get a few more degrees east to avoid hitting Cape Cod. Earl's still pretty close to 75 west.