ATL: GASTON - Models

[Migle]

Interesting run, but I this doesn't have a shot especially since this one's suppose to go through the Southern Caribbean not the northern.

[Vortex]

Also GFDL picks up speed abit late friday night...

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

SHIP continues very bullish.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 030034
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0034 UTC FRI SEP 3 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE GASTON (AL092010) 20100903 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100903  0000   100903  1200   100904  0000   100904  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.7N  40.2W   14.2N  41.2W   14.8N  42.5W   15.5N  44.4W
BAMD    13.7N  40.2W   14.3N  41.1W   15.0N  42.5W   15.7N  44.3W
BAMM    13.7N  40.2W   14.1N  41.1W   14.8N  42.2W   15.3N  43.6W
LBAR    13.7N  40.2W   14.2N  41.4W   15.3N  42.8W   16.5N  44.7W
SHIP        25KTS          25KTS          29KTS          36KTS
DSHP        25KTS          25KTS          29KTS          36KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100905  0000   100906  0000   100907  0000   100908  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.1N  46.5W   16.7N  51.7W   16.6N  57.9W   16.3N  63.3W
BAMD    16.0N  46.3W   15.6N  51.4W   14.4N  57.4W   14.0N  62.3W
BAMM    15.6N  45.3W   15.4N  49.6W   14.8N  54.6W   15.4N  58.8W
LBAR    17.7N  46.7W   19.9N  51.5W   20.8N  56.7W   21.2N  60.6W
SHIP        44KTS          61KTS          75KTS          88KTS
DSHP        44KTS          61KTS          75KTS          88KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.7N LONCUR =  40.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  13.5N LONM12 =  38.9W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  13.4N LONM24 =  37.3W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Vortex]

The initializion at 00z is right were we have some convection firing tonight...

[Wx_Warrior]

Good ol' 18z GFS.

[sunnyday]

If I had a nickel for every map that had a "direct hit on South Florida," I would be rich. I have seen the hurricane symbol covering the lower half of the state many days out, and of course, that means Florida is safe as the storm gets closer. I hope it stays that way--predicted to go there many days before and then goes away and harms no one.

[Typhoon_Willie]

I agree with the above post! I hope that the storms will stay away.

[ROCK]

0z rolling in....

24hr

[ROCK]

36hr

[lonelymike]

Rocks house must've taken a direct hit as he's fallen off the board with the model run

[Ivanhater]

84 hours..Strong high

[lonelymike]

Wow with that high Gaston is headed to Mexico through the Carribean

[Ivanhater]

96 hours..Even stronger high pushing Gaston WSW

[Ivanhater]

102 hours

[Ivanhater]

108 hours...Huge difference from the Euro with a very strong high and faster movement

[Wx_Warrior]

& resurrecting it back to life. Looks poor @ the moment.

[Ivanhater]

114 hours

[Ivanhater]

120 hours

[Ivanhater]

126 hours..hitting Southern/Mid Islands entering the Caribbean

[ConvergenceZone]

I guess with that high in place. No CV storms are going to be recurving for awhile....