ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[THead]

Yep, gonna be a blustery night in the OBX, I also noticed what you are saying about the western eyewall on radar. The Cape, Nantucket, and then Nova Scotia are still in for what could be a rough time, even if Earl is "only" a Cat 1 when it gets there. I'm wondering how he will react when he is fully engaged with this cold front. Wilma was only a Cat 1 going over eastern S. Fla, but it seemed like being engaged with the cold front that was guiding her, really magnified the effect. Broward county had ALOT of damage from Wilma. I guess what I'm trying to say, is everyone still in the path, don't get too complacent just yet!

Wilma made landfall south of Naples as a cat 3 and passed over southeastern florida as a cat 2

Hmm, did they revise it later to a Cat 2 over SE Fla? Because they called it a Cat 1 at the time, and I couldn't believe it. Was the worst Cat 1 I had ever been through, for sure. I remember Wilma like it was yesterday. Everyone thought we were safe because she was coming in from the gulf side. 8 million dollars damage to my Condo bldg, 3 years to repair....the main reason I am now living in Georgia!

[Sanibel]

The high cloud tops were probably obscuring the southern part of the eyewall from radar.

[CrazyC83]

Yep, gonna be a blustery night in the OBX, I also noticed what you are saying about the western eyewall on radar. The Cape, Nantucket, and then Nova Scotia are still in for what could be a rough time, even if Earl is "only" a Cat 1 when it gets there. I'm wondering how he will react when he is fully engaged with this cold front. Wilma was only a Cat 1 going over eastern S. Fla, but it seemed like being engaged with the cold front that was guiding her, really magnified the effect. Broward county had ALOT of damage from Wilma. I guess what I'm trying to say, is everyone still in the path, don't get too complacent just yet!

Wilma made landfall south of Naples as a cat 3 and passed over southeastern florida as a cat 2

Hmm, did they revise it later to a Cat 2 over SE Fla? Because they called it a Cat 1 at the time, and I couldn't believe it. Was the worst Cat 1 I had ever been through, for sure. I remember Wilma like it was yesterday. Everyone thought we were safe because she was coming in from the gulf side. 8 million dollars damage to my Condo bldg, 3 years to repair....the main reason I am now living in Georgia!

High-end Cat 2 in SE Florida (95 kt). It was Cat 3 in SW Florida though.

[fasterdisaster]

Yep, gonna be a blustery night in the OBX, I also noticed what you are saying about the western eyewall on radar. The Cape, Nantucket, and then Nova Scotia are still in for what could be a rough time, even if Earl is "only" a Cat 1 when it gets there. I'm wondering how he will react when he is fully engaged with this cold front. Wilma was only a Cat 1 going over eastern S. Fla, but it seemed like being engaged with the cold front that was guiding her, really magnified the effect. Broward county had ALOT of damage from Wilma. I guess what I'm trying to say, is everyone still in the path, don't get too complacent just yet!

Wilma made landfall south of Naples as a cat 3 and passed over southeastern florida as a cat 2

Hmm, did they revise it later to a Cat 2 over SE Fla? Because they called it a Cat 1 at the time, and I couldn't believe it. Was the worst Cat 1 I had ever been through, for sure. I remember Wilma like it was yesterday. Everyone thought we were safe because she was coming in from the gulf side. 8 million dollars damage to my Condo bldg, 3 years to repair....the main reason I am now living in Georgia!

No, it was never called a Category 1 then.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al242005.public_a.037.shtml?

[ericinmia]

Off topic, but...

Look into the official high resolution post storm analysis wind maps for dade & broward counties. You'll be hard pressed to find anything but high cat1 winds durring Wilma. Gusts were in the cat 2 range. People have this wonderful ability to exagerate their circumstances and views to 'pad' their thoughts. Show any average person a sustained 55-85mph wind and they'll tell you it was horrible cat 2-3 winds and when a 98mph gust/microburst comes through they'll tell you it was cat 3-4.

People just aren't great with interpreting wind speed.

[THead]

Off topic, but...

Look into the official high resolution post storm analysis wind maps for dade & broward counties. You'll be hard pressed to find anything but high cat1 winds durring Wilma. Gusts were in the cat 2 range. People have this wonderful ability to exagerate their circumstances and views to 'pad' their thoughts. Show any average person a sustained 55-85mph wind and they'll tell you it was horrible cat 2-3 winds and when a 98mph gust/microburst comes through they'll tell you it was cat 3-4.

People just aren't great with interpreting wind speed.

Thanks Eric, I think that is what I am remembering then, the post storm analysis. My original point was, still don't get complacent on Earl, anyone who is in his path, because look at the damage Wilma did, while racing along with a cold front. She was really moving, forward speed-wise. 30 mph or more, and it looks like NHC expects similar fwd speed with Earl, once he becomes fully engaged with the front.

[ericinmia]

To back up my previous thoughts:
Reference: http://www.lakeeriewx.com/Meteo241/Rese ... alysis.gif

Sorry I'm on my phone...

Edit:
Exactly! Just because it's only sustained cat1 doesn't mean your off the hook and it's time to relax and party. Stay Vigilant!

[breaking wind]

I couldnt agree with you more. During hurricane Jeanne, we had 45-50 mph sustained winds with gusts to 60 where I live in central fl and I would of swore at the time it was 60 sustained with 80 mph gusts. And yes we had shingles blown from a moderate at best tropical storm.

[Zarniwoop]

Will Mass. even notice when Earl goes by?

[funster]

Earl seems to be taking his sweet time getting past Hatteras. Thought this would zoom by rather quickly.

[THead]

Will Mass. even notice when Earl goes by?

From the 2AM NHC Advisory:

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM
VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS ON FRIDAY...AND SPREAD OVER THE
COAST OF MAINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
MASSACHUSETTS FRIDAY NIGHT.

[ronjon]

Hatteras taking a beating tonight. Sustained winds at 45 gusting to 60 kts.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=hcgn7&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT

[supercane]

Good compilation of obs, CrazyC83.

[ronjon]

Diamond Shoals buoy about 10 miles SE of Hatteras. Pressure now down to 29.08 and falling rapidly.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=41025&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT

[BrianD]

Just as earl looks like he's dyin a lil.... He's firing in the center again and pretty good in the latest imagery

[BrianD]

Glad he isn't still looking like this at his current position

[toto]

Brian... do you still see the cloaked gnome with the wooden club ? ;-)


.

[Brent]

How quickly they fall:

[BrianD]

Brian... do you still see the cloaked gnome with the wooden club ? ;-)


.

no only in that one pic thats y i blew it up fiona's whole system looked sorta like a cliff ledge with a bearded gnome in a cloak with a wood staff looking into a portal which the portal would've been earl it was a pretty interesting looking graphic of the presentation at that time . Did you catch the earlier one someone posted where earl looked like felix the cat or a cartoon character ?

[Crostorm]

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