ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[aerology]

comments from WUWT thread where I detailed my whole 2010 season forecast in IMHO

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/23/d ... /#comments

Richard Holle says:
August 23, 2010 at 6:21 pm

Tom in Florida says:
August 23, 2010 at 2:24 pm

When Danielle becomes a major hurricane this week, Richard Holle’s prediction will be confirmed as exact to date.
Reply:
are you referring to this one?
PostPosted: Sat Jul 31, 2010 3:04 pm.
Survey number of storms in August
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2009 2:38 am
Posts: 43
Location: Concordia, Kansas
I voted for two named storms, one really weak one around the 20th to 23rd, and a stronger one later forming around the 25th and making landfall Florida panhandle close to end of month, 30th or 31st.

Or this one?;
August 16, 2010 at 12:39 am

Made a my space blog comment on the updated forecast I posted on WUWT “thoughts on the 2010 hurricane season.”
2010 detailed Hurricane forecast
Current mood: adventurous
Today I climbed out on a big limb, with chainsaw in tow, with this forecast?

There are four ingredients needed to make a large storm, available heat energy, moisture to change phase states to generate the low pressure zone, ion potentials to drive the “precipitation” (not just condensation), and a global lunar tidal effect to drive the wind patterns that tighten up, as the tropical air mass that becomes the tropical storm, moves off of the ITCZ and further away from the equator, the Coriolis effect kicks in and strengthens, to assist the formation of the cyclonic circulation along with the associated ionic drives.

We have been having three of these ingredients showing up in the three named disturbances so far. However the global “pole to equator ion charge gradient” is currently stagnating, all of the seasonal drivers of these shifts in charge gradients will occur later in the year than is the”Normal” (although nonrandom pattern of distribution.)

The solar cycle has been slow, but is starting to pick up as we approach the heliocentric conjunctions of three of the four outer planets that drive the global ion potentials that create and drive these large storms. I have posted a detailed forecast of the dates to expect these storms to be produced several time over the past year.

Due to the geomagnetic effects of the increased coupling, of the solar fields extended out from flares and coronal holes, as the Earth passes through the focused area that lines up heliocentrically with the outer planets:
Neptune on the 20th of August, the Earth will have an increased homopolar generator charge potential inducted into it, then relaxed over the next two weeks (till end of August 2010) that will induce the typical discharge pattern that generates the large flows of ions that allow the global tropical storms to attain sizable effects above cat 1 – cat 2 levels, because of increased wind and precipitation production, powered by the enhanced action of the opposing ion charges swept into the cyclonic flow structure.

September 21st through 24th 2010 will see the bigger set of conjunctions that will do a much better job of driving the intensity of resultant global tropical and extra-tropical storms, that form on the discharge side of the ion flux patterns, after these dates. No the season is not over yet.

The lunar declinational tides that peak at the culmination of the declinational sweep occur at Maximum South on 19th August then heads North with tropical moisture in tow until the effects has run its course by the 2nd to 4th of September 2010, is the window of opportunity for the first weaker outbreak of global TS.
The lunar declination is Maximum South again on the 15th of September 2010, ahead of the peak of charging of the Uranus / Jupiter heliocentric conjunction of the 24th of September 2010, and it should be in phase with the movement of tropical moisture laden warm air crossing the equator following the moon, as it moves North across the equator on the 23rd of September.

The same day of the peak charging effects of the homopolar generator as the Earth responds to the increased inductive effects carried on the solar wind to affect the coupling through to the outer planets from the sun out of a large coronal hole created on the sun just for the purpose of providing the magnetic field energy needed. This powers up the cycle of positive ion charging along the ITCZ, by pushing more moisture into the lower atmosphere, to then add drive to the ion discharging phase, driving the resultant outbreak of global wide intense tropical storms, that will occur post conjunction.

By the time the Moon reaches maximum North declination on the 29th of September 2010, the global ACE values will be close to peak for the year. Inertial momentum of the global systems should carry on the enhanced zonal flow through the next two weeks.

With the continual decreasing electromagnetic coupling as the Earth moves past these outer planets the severe weather activity levels, will drop with continued attempted recovery enhancements at the lunar declinational culminations, until by the time of the synod conjunction of Venus and Earth on the 29th of October 2010, we will see a last hurrah, then a slow shift into the storms of a deep cold NH winter.
(edit to add disclaimer)
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ColinDelia]

Decreasing dry air to the west

[ColinDelia]

Yeah, Brent. Looks to be on the increase.

[Gustywind]

Increasing convection...

[Evil Jeremy]

IMO, 30% at 8AM. A 1/3 chance of reformation over the next two days seems about right, to me at least.

[abajan]

Increasing convection...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/avn-l.jpg

Yep. Chances for re-development may be upped to 30% in the next TWO.
EDIT: You beat me to it, Evil Jeremy!

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Increasing convection...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/avn-l.jpg

Yep. Chances for re-development may be upped to 30% in the next TWO.

Maybe surely, and that's why we shoud continue to keep an eye on this feature. San Juan PR Weather Discussion is also on this way... Wait and see.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030943
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST FRI SEP 3 2010


LOOKING AHEAD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK MAINLY WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING...TRACK AND
INTENSITY ALL REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...LOCAL RESIDENTS AND
TOURISTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM
DURING THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT
THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

$$

04/06

[Gustywind]

Slight and steadily increasing convection continues

[ColinDelia]

Agree with you guys. Probability should go up.

[ColinDelia]

Ocean Heat Content steadily increasing in the coming days

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 285
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF GASTON. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5
TO 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE

[ColinDelia]

Yeah 40% seems reasonable. I wouldn't argue with anyone who thought it should even be higher in this case.

[Blown Away]

TAFB keeping the low and maybe moving just South of due West through 72 hours.

I agree with ColinDelia, the NHC could have gone higher but I bet they want to make sure the convection persists. I think we will see Gaston again!

[wxman57]

Looks like it's still a TD to me. Redevelopment is almost a certainty.

[HurrMark]

Once it gets into a more moist environment, it probably should regenerate....actually was very shocked yesterday when I saw it dissipating. Gaston must have just run out of gas...

[cycloneye]

Looking better with each new frame.

[SFLcane]

So much for this system getting further westward... Both the GFS and EURO models recurve this pretty quickly.

[cycloneye]

So much for this system getting further westward... Both the GFS and EURO models recurve this pretty quickly.

But not before entering the Eastern Caribbean and moving over Puerto Rico.

[SFLcane]

So much for this system getting further westward... Both the GFS and EURO models recurve this pretty quickly.

But not before entering the Eastern Caribbean and moving over Puerto Rico.

Yea no doupt you guys in puerto rico should really keep a close eye on this in the coming days. Could be quite an intense hurricane possibly coming your way.