ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[JPmia]

So much for this system getting further westward... Both the GFS and EURO models recurve this pretty quickly.

But not before entering the Eastern Caribbean and moving over Puerto Rico.

Looks you guys/gals in the Eastern Caribbean islands are in the hot seat this year. Good luck!

[Bailey1777]

can anybody remember where ike formed and where he was forecast to head in the early stages?

thanks Darren

[canes101]

can anybody remember where ike formed and where he was forecast to head in the early stages?

thanks Darren

Here you go Darren

[djmikey]

Everyone thought Ike was to recurve into the ATL. As you can see he started to then quickly decided the GOM was home...As we have been saying, we just don't know yet. It all depends on the setup a week from now!

[ColinDelia]

New SHIPS output.

SHIPS gets back to 35 knots in 24 hours, 67 knots in 72 hours, 93 knots at 120 hours
LGEM gets back to 36 knots in 36 hours, 68 knots in 84 hours, 105 knots in 24 hours

[RachelAnna]

Ike was an experience! I hope the setup isn't anything like that!

[ColinDelia]

[BigA]

Per latest microwave, structure looks decent, and the intenstity models certainly think redevelopment is likely (The intensity models are less easy to discount with this than with pre tropical cyclones, because this already does have a vortex associated with it). My gut is that it will return, and the models seem to agree for now.

[ronjon]

So much for this system getting further westward... Both the GFS and EURO models recurve this pretty quickly.

Actually the 00Z Euro model brings a weak low (ex Gaston) into the SW caribbean sea.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html

[Vortex]

noticed that as well ronjon...

[CrazyC83]

Still way too far east for Recon though. When would they fly in, around 50W?

[gatorcane]

So much for this system getting further westward... Both the GFS and EURO models recurve this pretty quickly.

But not before entering the Eastern Caribbean and moving over Puerto Rico.

Looks you guys/gals in the Eastern Caribbean islands are in the hot seat this year. Good luck!

I don't think we know it going to miss the U.S. yet, in fact a track through the Caribbean sea and a hook to the north at some point seems possible. The U.S. impacts are not out until 280+ hours out so alot can change with the models.

[Sanibel]

The center looks like it pulled slightly north and towards the 15 Latitude. This is off what the models were saying.

[Vortex]

not really sanibel..several indicated that with a bend back west then wsw later this weekend...

[MWatkins]

Recon won't fly until 55W, and this thing is already coming back together. Microwave presentation (above) is impressive, and notice the small bands starting to string out to the SW? That's a sure sign Gaston is trying to reorganize.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis-s.html

MW

[Vortex]

12Z GFS about to roll...

[MGC]

Yep guys, looks like convection is starting to pop around the center, looks like Gaston is beginning to take his second breath....will have to keep an eye on this one because if it does regenerate it will likely threaten land. Earlier I though Gaston might go fishing but not now.....MGC

[KWT]

Yeah its starting to comeback, probably just swallowed in way too much of the dry air and needed some time to reorganise itself.

Also this one is a big candidate for a threat to the Caribbean islands probably as far wesr as Haiti IMO and as you you all know I've been suggesting recurve for most storms...I'm FAR from convinced thats the case here, though in all fairness a Hortense type track is most likely IMO...

[HURAKAN]

latest .. starting to look good

[abajan]

...LGEM gets back to 36 knots in 36 hours, 68 knots in 84 hours, 105 knots in 24 hours

Oops! There seems to be a problem here.