ATL: Ex INVEST 99L - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[Evil Jeremy]

Can the Atlantic actually go 5 for 5?

[HURAKAN]

ex-Gaston and 99L

[ColinDelia]

Wonder what the record is, Jeremy. Probably nobody knows? (and I mean since satellites)

[ColinDelia]

Wide view showing 99l (here PGI39L) and the wave behind it. Some models develop PGI40L instead.

[Floodo_Is_My_Hero]

Wonder what the record is, Jeremy. Probably nobody knows? (and I mean since satellites)

From WGN News in Chicago:

"According to hurricane specialist Dr. Christopher Landsea there were five Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones in existence between Sept. 10 and 12, 1971, with four named storms: Edith, Fern, Ginger and Heidi while the fifth storm, then a tropical depression, went on to become Hurricane Irene. On two other occasions there were four simultaneous hurricanes roaming the tropical Atlantic. The first time was on Aug. 22, 1893, for Hurricanes 3,4,5 and 6 (storms were not named until 1950) and more recently on Sept. 25, 1998, when Hurricanes Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl were being tracked. Hurricane Georges was responsible for thousands of deaths in Haiti."

-Colton

[Evil Jeremy]

Wonder what the record is, Jeremy. Probably nobody knows? (and I mean since satellites)

From WGN News in Chicago:

"According to hurricane specialist Dr. Christopher Landsea there were five Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones in existence between Sept. 10 and 12, 1971, with four named storms: Edith, Fern, Ginger and Heidi while the fifth storm, then a tropical depression, went on to become Hurricane Irene. On two other occasions there were four simultaneous hurricanes roaming the tropical Atlantic. The first time was on Aug. 22, 1893, for Hurricanes 3,4,5 and 6 (storms were not named until 1950) and more recently on Sept. 25, 1998, when Hurricanes Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl were being tracked. Hurricane Georges was responsible for thousands of deaths in Haiti."

-Colton

What I was talking about was not how many storms were alive at the same time. By "5 for 5", I mean, will this be the fifth tropical wave to come off of Africa in a row to become a cyclone.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[Floodo_Is_My_Hero]

Wonder what the record is, Jeremy. Probably nobody knows? (and I mean since satellites)

From WGN News in Chicago:

"According to hurricane specialist Dr. Christopher Landsea there were five Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones in existence between Sept. 10 and 12, 1971, with four named storms: Edith, Fern, Ginger and Heidi while the fifth storm, then a tropical depression, went on to become Hurricane Irene. On two other occasions there were four simultaneous hurricanes roaming the tropical Atlantic. The first time was on Aug. 22, 1893, for Hurricanes 3,4,5 and 6 (storms were not named until 1950) and more recently on Sept. 25, 1998, when Hurricanes Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl were being tracked. Hurricane Georges was responsible for thousands of deaths in Haiti."

-Colton

What I was talking about was not how many storms were alive at the same time. By "5 for 5", I mean, will this be the fifth tropical wave to come off of Africa in a row to become a cyclone.

Ahhhh...my bad! My wife always tells me I should just keep my mouth shut! LOL! I just haven't gotten the hang of that yet. Thanks for setting me straight! And my money is on this being "5 for 5". The tropics are coming on strong!

[ColinDelia]

Me too but thanks for the info "Floodo_Is_My_Hero"

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW ARE SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

[HURAKAN]

latest vorticity

[HURAKAN]

03/1345 UTC 14.9N 19.4W T1.0/1.0 99L -- Atlantic

latest

[HURAKAN]

Jeff Masters:


New tropical wave
A large tropical off the coast of Africa is moving westward at about 10 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression next week. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Wind shear is currently too high, 20 - 30 knots, for the wave to develop. However, once the wave reaches a point a few hundred miles from the Cape Verdes Islands two days from now, wind shear will drop and development will be more likely.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[ColinDelia]

PGI40L is positioned NE of 99L so it might reduce the dry air reaching it

[HURAKAN]

SAL is pretty weak

[HURAKAN]

latest

[HURAKAN]

860
ABNT20 KNHC 032353
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS...AND ON RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANT LOW OF GASTON...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE
...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

not looking hot tonight