ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Gustywind]

Making a shy approach on the screen... but let's wait and see.

[HURAKAN]

updated

[CrazyC83]

Unlike with 11E though, there is no need to rush advisories on this one if suspicious as land is not immediately threatened.

[cycloneye]

IMO,60% at 8.

[Gustywind]

[OURAGAN]

it's going to fish

[Florida1118]

it's going to fish

And your reasoning behind this statement is...?

[OURAGAN]

For the moment it's moving to the NW (300°), big fish

[Gustywind]

[fasterdisaster]

For the moment it's moving to the NW (300°), big fish

No, it isn't. Right now it's barely moving at all.

[x-y-no]

For the moment it's moving to the NW (300°), big fish

I don't see it. Looks like a slow west motion to me.

[Tstormwatcher]

For the moment it's moving to the NW (300°), big fish

Actually it is moving west right now. Think you are confusing Ex-Gaston with the newest invest.

[HURAKAN]

860
ABNT20 KNHC 032353
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS...AND ON RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANT LOW OF GASTON...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE
...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[Evil Jeremy]

Code red!

[cycloneye]

Is moving west per 8 PM TWO.

[cycloneye]

[fasterdisaster]

If Gaston re-develops and becomes a strong hurricane, while I certainly hope it doesn't affect anybody, I have to say that I hope most of all that it bypasses Haiti. They're in more need of a break than anybody right now.

[abajan]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg

Looks like most of the dry air is now behind it. Translation: Strengthening is likely from this point onward.

[KWT]

If Gaston re-develops and becomes a strong hurricane, while I certainly hope it doesn't affect anybody, I have to say that I hope most of all that it bypasses Haiti. They're in more need of a break than anybody right now.

There lies my biggest fear and worry for this system, the idea of a westerly track till 60W is looking solid now IMO but really it wouldn't take much for this to ride along 15-16N and end up coming way to close for comfort to Hispaniola.

Anyway we've got a long way to go with this one, but obviously its too early to call with this one past the E.Caribbean.

It is also worth noting that some models barely do anything with this and weaken it into the Caribbean probably due to interaction with the recently developed ULL/TUTT feature but they maybe underdoing this ones chances...

ps, also models suggest there could even be some slight south of west motion at some point, upper high looks quite strong in the C.Atlantic.