ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#701 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 03, 2010 7:30 pm

00z Best Track

AL, 09, 2010090400, , BEST, 0, 152N, 426W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#702 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 03, 2010 7:58 pm

It looks like a TD or even a TS.

Image
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#703 Postby blazess556 » Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:00 pm

cycloneye wrote:It looks like a TD or even a TS.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/187.JPG[/img]

when i looked at the loop it looked like a ts to me too. circulation looks to be right under the convection. i think we see it back to a td at 11.
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#704 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:01 pm

It's so cute, I want to put it in my pocket!
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#705 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:04 pm

Gaston is sure getting his act together tonight..No question he's bordering on TS..I wouldnt be shocked abit if were talking nearing hurricane strength tomorrow night...
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#706 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:07 pm

Very tight and concentrating all the energy right near the center..Often times these can deepen quickly...I'd expect he'll be quite abit larger in overall size by tomoorow as well.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#707 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:10 pm

Is the ridge strong enough to make it a big threat to the islands, even if it is now at 15-16N? I ask because there are many members (Including me) who live here that want to know this very important question.
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#708 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:11 pm

Probably will see the NHC get tempted, though they will be careful knowing Gaston pretty much died as soon as it got upgraded last time around, may not be so quick to re-upgrade this time round.

Still looks like a TD to me, probably up at 16.5N which is exactly where the hurricane models suggested.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#709 Postby blazess556 » Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:12 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is the ridge strong enough to keep it from missing the islands, even if it is now at 15.2N? I ask because there are many members (Including me) who live here that want to know this very important question.

i think the ridge is strong enough to push it wsw towards the islands. most of the models build a pretty strong ridge.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#710 Postby OURAGAN » Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:15 pm

I hope it will not go straight to my island of Guadeloupe, i saw too much Hurricane in my life:
Hurricane Inez on 27 th of September 1966 in Guadeloupe, i Was in vacation in Martinique when i saw Hurricane David and Hurricane Allen in August 1979 and August 1980, and Hurricane Hugo in Guadeloupe in 1989 at my home at Baie-Mahault,we were in the eye of it, Luis in 1995 ......and others.
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#711 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:15 pm

exactly kwt.. I have the center near 16.1N More importantly, the models are in strong agreement in dropping gaston to the wsw/sw in about 36-48 hours...I'm going with 15-15.5 as he passes through the island chain
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#712 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:16 pm

blazess556 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Is the ridge strong enough to keep it from missing the islands, even if it is now at 15.2N? I ask because there are many members (Including me) who live here that want to know this very important question.

i think the ridge is strong enough to push it wsw towards the islands. most of the models build a pretty strong ridge.



Normally, at the position it is now,is a sure fish.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#713 Postby painkillerr » Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:19 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is moving west per 8 PM TWO.


Hola neighbor, I think this is the one for us to be concerned with.
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#714 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:19 pm

Image

If it's not upgraded tonight, likely tomorrow
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#715 Postby JTD » Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:21 pm

Yeah I might wait until 11 a.m. tommorow to upgrade just to be cautious and sure it's really coming back if it were my call, which isn't. Looks like a serious threat for sure.
Last edited by JTD on Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#716 Postby OURAGAN » Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:21 pm

It's why i say it goes fishing for the moment to the NW to 300°
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#717 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:23 pm

Image

ex-Gaston is unlikely to be a fish
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#718 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:25 pm

04/0000 UTC 16.7N 21.0W TOO WEAK 99L -- Atlantic

Whats up with this?
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#719 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:26 pm

Sorry wrong system
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#720 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 03, 2010 8:26 pm

:uarrow: That is for 99L.

03/2345 UTC 15.4N 42.8W T1.5/1.5 GASTON -- Atlantic
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