ATL: GASTON - Models

[cycloneye]

Hmmmm quite a tough call this one looking at the models, the ridging is pretty weak still aloft on the models, esp in terms of heights which is KEY....however equally the 12z ECM for example keeps the upper troughing weak as well and so a system down near 15-17N could just keep on a broad WNW track once at 60W the whole way till land...its a tough one.

This is quite clearly a E.CAribbean threat, could easily become a deeper threat to the Caribbean as well though as we are now seeing on the GFS runs.

About intensity, SHIP (97kts) and GFDL (108kts) on their 18z runs. How you see the intensity as it nears the islands?

[KWT]

The interesting thing is the ECM/CMC bith suggest a real weak system coming into the E.Caribbean which only gets weaker as it gets further west so its far from an easy call...BUT given what we've seen from Fiona in what was frankly very poor conditions I'd have to imagine this one will be somewhat inbetween the two extremes...first of all lets just get a system back again!

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 040024
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0024 UTC SAT SEP 4 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE GASTON (AL092010) 20100904 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100904  0000   100904  1200   100905  0000   100905  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.2N  42.6W   15.9N  44.1W   16.6N  45.9W   17.0N  48.2W
BAMD    15.2N  42.6W   15.9N  44.2W   16.3N  46.2W   16.3N  48.4W
BAMM    15.2N  42.6W   15.8N  43.8W   16.2N  45.4W   16.2N  47.1W
LBAR    15.2N  42.6W   16.1N  44.0W   17.0N  46.0W   17.8N  48.3W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          40KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100906  0000   100907  0000   100908  0000   100909  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.3N  50.7W   17.3N  56.5W   17.6N  61.8W   18.7N  65.3W
BAMD    16.1N  51.0W   15.2N  56.8W   14.8N  62.1W   15.4N  65.5W
BAMM    16.1N  49.1W   15.7N  53.8W   16.5N  58.0W   18.5N  60.9W
LBAR    18.5N  50.9W   19.0N  56.5W   18.6N  61.8W   17.0N  65.6W
SHIP        48KTS          65KTS          78KTS          91KTS
DSHP        48KTS          65KTS          78KTS          91KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.2N LONCUR =  42.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  14.5N LONM12 =  41.3W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  13.8N LONM24 =  40.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  210NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[OURAGAN]

it's that i say, 300° NW, may be a fish system

[Evil Jeremy]

it's that i say, 300° NW, may be a fish system

Uh.. are you looking at the models?

[blazess556]

it's that i say, 300° NW, may be a fish system

most of the models have this hitting the Caribbean islands. its not a fish. and the models still dont have a handle on the synoptic pattern after it passes the islands. right now, its wait and see situation.

[KWT]

it's that i say, 300° NW, may be a fish system

It'll probably top out soon and then bend back due west at sa 15.7-16N....in fact don't be shocked if this loses a couple of tenths of latitude over the next few days compared to its highest point in say 12-18hrs...

Upper high builds in nicely by 24-36hrs.

[blazess556]

it's that i say, 300° NW, may be a fish system

It'll probably top out soon and then bend back due west at sa 15.7-16N....in fact don't be shocked if this loses a couple of tenths of latitude over the next few days compared to its highest point in say 12-18hrs...

Upper high builds in nicely by 24-36hrs.

yep most models have this moving wsw.

[OURAGAN]

What i mean, for my island of Guadeloupe, most of the models indicates Gaston will pass to the North of this Island, and for me it will be a fish.

[BigB0882]

What i mean, for my island of Guadeloupe, most of the models indicates Gaston will pass to the North of this Island, and for me it will be a fish.

Well IMBY posts should be labeled as such, will probably save you a lot of trouble down the line.

[OURAGAN]

i agree

[Evil Jeremy]

What i mean, for my island of Guadeloupe, most of the models indicates Gaston will pass to the North of this Island, and for me it will be a fish.

It's still dangerous to call it a fish, because for others, it won't be.

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, boy did the board clear out and slow down...I guess recurves do that....

[blazess556]

wow, boy did the board clear out and slow down...I guess recurves do that....

how can anyone say that it is a recurve. its going to the caribbean. nobody knows where its going to go after that.

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, boy did the board clear out and slow down...I guess recurves do that....

how can anyone say that it is a recurve. its going to the caribbean. nobody knows where its going to go after that.

What I meant is that everything else is recurving...With Gaston it's still uncertain.

[blazess556]

wow, boy did the board clear out and slow down...I guess recurves do that....

how can anyone say that it is a recurve. its going to the caribbean. nobody knows where its going to go after that.

What I meant is that everything else is recurving...With Gaston it's still uncertain.

my bad. i reread it. i misunderstood you.

[HURAKAN]

GFDL

[CYCLONE MIKE]

wow, boy did the board clear out and slow down...I guess recurves do that....

Business will pick up again. Its a holiday weekend, just had a busy week with Fiona and Earl, so people are just taking a break. Plus this is still at least a week away from possibly affecting someone so plenty of time to watch it.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like Gaston is getting well organized tonight and with the good handling by the GFS with Earl and Fiona well back in time I would really watch this in the islands.

[otowntiger]

I was surprised to see that a local Met here in Orlando pretty much said that this would be a north atlantic system. He showed a spaghetti graphic of models that had it moving into the Carribean and all of them at the end of the run had it just starting a bend to the north generally towards P.R. He pointed that out and said that the models were all on board showing it then re-curving sharply to the north beyond that even though his graphic stopped just prior to that. I think this statement could have been a little pre-mature at best and perhaps irresponsible at worst. What do y'all think?