ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Vortex]

As of the 315utc notice the magenta color appearing right over the presumed center..As I said earlier I will not be surprised if by tommorrow night we have a storm nearing hurricane strength...




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

[fasterdisaster]

Why has this not been reclassified?!

[Buck]

I'm guessing if convection persists like it has been for a few more hours, we see Tropical Storm Gaston again at 5 AM.

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

I think he's back!

[cycloneye]

Sandy, when does the eclipse start and when it ends?

[StormClouds63]

Gaston, like all good Cajuns, is very resiient.

KWT, I don't want to put you on the spot, but is this a recurve or not? Mixed opinions on the board, but more seem to now be favoring a general westward movement.

Does this make it all the way into the western Caribbean before feeling a northward tug? How strong (and how far west) is that ridge going to build?

[HURAKAN]

Sandy, when does the eclipse start and when it ends?

No idea

[Vortex]

last image before the eclipse is 415utc then a 2 hour elcipse to return with the 615utc image..we have one more image

[ROCK]

As of the 315utc notice the magenta color appearing right over the presumed center..As I said earlier I will not be surprised if by tommorrow night we have a storm nearing hurricane strength...




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

thats a cold top for sure right over the center....I will go along with a strong tropical storm by tomorrow night...good call...

[Blown Away]

Just for giggles, turn TWC on and see the nerdy met w/ his jacket off and sleeves rolled up!! Pretty funny, they are desperate for something!!

[Fego]

Look to me that ex Gastón is heading wnw toward 17 North.

[floridasun78]

their could fly into ex gaston on sat their doing study on tropical system that area that how we know we have gaston first time round because one plane in study want to gaston found ts wind on northern side of gaston

[supercane]

GOES-13 Stray Light Exclusion Zone (SLZ) Schedule:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/eclipse.html

[Vortex]

445utc appears to be devoping quickly tonight...




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html

[Vortex]

nogaps 00z over eastern cuba




https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[SFLcane]

NHC 2am...

THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
FORM NEAR THE CENTER...THEN ADVISORIES COULD BE RE-INITIATED ON
THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

[supercane]

From the 2AM TWD:
THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON IS CENTERED NEAR 15N43W ABOUT 1000 NM
E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W NEAR 9 KT. THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER APPEARS TO B JUST UNDER THE SE PORTION OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 43W-46W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT.
IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM NEAR THE CENTER...THEN
ADVISORIES COULD BE RE-INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[ColinDelia]

6z

SHIPS 35 knots in 12 hours, 64 knots in 60 hours, 95 knots in 120 hours
LGEM 35 knots in 12 hours, 71 knots in 72 hours, 112 knots in 120 hours

Forecast track: BAMM

[KWT]

Well the global models aren't at all agressivve with this one but the statistical and GFDL are both pretty strong and make this a decent hurricane.

StormClouds63, thats not easy to say, I personally favour this getting into the Central Caribbean and lifting out at least somewhat through the Islands so almost certainly no fish with this one unless it really does gain more latitude then expected...but right now I'm not sure I could make a call beyond that.

[Gustywind]

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