ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Warmer SST's and higher moisture ahead so Gaston might spin up like Earl and Danielle did. I'm not sure yet whether Gaston will get trapped under the east coast ridge and threaten Florida yet but I do think the models that show a Belize landfall are keeping him too weak.

Based on the persistent convection overnight, this morning I would bet on there being a developing LLC that should be observable in the morning sat shots. Heading appears to be almost due west. Put a well initiated TS in the models and see what they do with that today.

[WeatherGuesser]

I'm guessing if convection persists like it has been for a few more hours, we see Tropical Storm Gaston again at 5 AM.

Nope. Didn't happen.

Still at 70%

[OURAGAN]

the models are right, it is beginning to move may be slightly W to WSW to 265W now.

[OURAGAN]

I notice NRL has it at 30 KTS now

[KWT]

I suspect the NHC may well upgrade next time round if the Vis.imagery still looks good in 3-4hrs time.

As for track, the track in the next 2-3 days is rather easy, due west and maybe even a smidge south of west at some points with a pretty strong upper high in the C.Atlantic.

[Gustywind]

I notice NRL has it at 30 KTS now

Right.
20100904.0915.09LGASTON.30kts-1008mb-152N-434W. :rarrow: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc1 ... atest.html

[Ladylight]

Translation for non-mets: if Gaston gets it together, he's headed pretty much due west (i.e. Carib). Then maybe to Fl or GOM but it depends and too early to say. Did I get this about right?

[WeatherGuesser]

Did I get this about right?

You left out the 'or maybe not'.

[Gustywind]

Lates from SSD
04/0615 UTC 16.2N 43.9W T2.0/2.0 GASTON
03/2345 UTC 15.4N 42.8W T1.5/1.5 GASTON

[Gustywind]

[abajan]

their could fly into ex gaston on sat their doing study on tropical system that area that how we know we have gaston first time round because one plane in study want to gaston found ts wind on northern side of gaston

Did you mean to say:

“They might fly into ex-Gaston on Saturday because they’re doing a study on tropical systems in that area. That’s how we knew it was a storm the first time around because upon arrival, one plane in the study found TS force winds on the northern side of the system.”?

Just wondering.

Anyway, I’m more than a little surprised that Gaston hasn’t redeveloped into a TD this morning.

[Gustywind]

Continues steadily its improvement...

[jlauderdal]

Translation for non-mets: if Gaston gets it together, he's headed pretty much due west (i.e. Carib). Then maybe to Fl or GOM but it depends and too early to say. Did I get this about right?

yikes, translating then asking if its correct. Yes the modeling has Gaston heading west for a few days under the ridge so you have it correct.

[OURAGAN]

Best track updated at NRL 15,4N / 44W, 30KTS

[KWT]

Interestingly the GFS has really backed off development on its 06z run...when that happens with the other models weak it tends to suggest this one will stay weak for at least a while.

However a weaker system would almost certainly find its way into either the W.Caribbean or Gulf and you wouldn't want a system in that part of the basin at this time of the year...though with the ridge the way it is over the states if it misses the weakness at say 60-70W it'd probably go near due west the whole way until it reaches its end...

[perk]

Interestingly the GFS has really backed off development on its 06z run...when that happens with the other models weak it tends to suggest this one will stay weak for at least a while.

However a weaker system would almost certainly find its way into either the W.Caribbean or Gulf and you wouldn't want a system in that part of the basin at this time of the year...though with the ridge the way it is over the states if it misses the weakness at say 60-70W it'd probably go near due west the whole way until it reaches its end...

Agree the carribean waters is untapped potential,so is the GOM.

[KWT]

With a strong system like Danielle and Earl its quite easy to call what the general set-up would be, but with weak or possibly unknown strength systems it becomes so much harder...because for example a strong system probably recurves through the NE Caribbean, maybe as far west as PR...but a weak system probably would end up bypassing the trough and then could quite easily track the whole way across the Caribbean/Gulf till it finds land.

Anyone brave enough to make a call beyond say 120hrs deserves a medal...I'm happy to call it when I see it, but right now I'm seeing a situation where alot of places in theory could be at elevated risk.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GASTON CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Looks like the center is trying to wrap around again. Looks like around 16.5n 45.5w. Should be a depression today. As for vector. I'd say west/wsw. Might not even hit the U.S. Won't know till models start coming out after it's a depression. I don't look at wave models.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 09, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 163N, 456W, 30, 1008, LO

HURRICANELONNY, you almost nailed the exact position.