ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[ColinDelia]

Nearly all of the precipitation is NW of the low level center.

On the TPW image you can see dry air south of the center seemingly inhibiting development
south of 15N recently.

[HURRICANELONNY]

So close but yet so far. If it was a landfall. Gaston coming back and he's pissed.

[OURAGAN]

That's mean it is not for Guadeloupe, we are at 16,5N

[emeraldislencguy]

looks less impressive now than it did 8 hours ago

[ColinDelia]

Best track. 16.3, 45.6



(Previous statement edited for blindness!)

[KWT]

Its getting there, still needs to hold the presentation for a little longer but it could quite easily become a TD again today providing it doesn't take a nice big gulp of more stable air again.

[ColinDelia]

That's mean it is not for Guadeloupe, we are at 16,5N

A number of models have a small southerly component to the motion starting later in the day

[bvigal]

Good morning!

Former Gaston is close enough to the Eastern Caribbean islands to hold our attention, even disorganized as he is. So we watch carefully for redevelopment.

I did notice this morning that GFS gave up bullish forecast on this, maybe upper level influence.

Gaston is way too many miles from the U.S. mainland for anyone there to worry, so enjoy your holiday weekend!

[wxman57]

A look at climatology for today. I searched all past September storms passing within 65nm of Gaston's 12Z position. Only 1 grazed the NE Caribbean, some little 1926 hurricane that eventually ran into Miami. A few other little storms hit the U.S. - some no-named 1938 storm that hit New England, Ione in 1955 and Gloria in 1985 that hit New England.

Looking at Gaston this morning, it's far better organized and likely stronger than Fiona was for the past few days. No idea why it's not classified as a TD or TS already.

[KWT]

Very interesting wxman57, will be interesting to see what that looks like in a few days time when this is still close to 16-17N at 60W...

[cycloneye]

Not looking healthy right now as the low center is semiexposed.

57,there is still dry air in the area and they may be waiting to see if it gets the system again.

[HUC]

Center of TS Gaston exposed???

[bvigal]

...Looking at Gaston this morning, it's far better organized and likely stronger than Fiona was for the past few days. No idea why it's not classified as a TD or TS already.

OK, now that you've said it, wxman57, and you are pro, I will confess, I don't understand what the ___ NHC is waiting for. Is it not a closed low? Do they need more visible shots? Do they need a polar or ascat pass? Is it because the convection isn't over the center? How many other storms with active advisories have been in that state - for sure, many. And yes, Fiona a good example.

[HUC]

[quote="cycloneye"]Not looking healthy right now as the low center is semiexposed.

57,there is still dry air in the area and they may be waiting to see if it gets the system again.

[img]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/vis-l.jpg[/img]

[img]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/wv-l.jpg[/img][/quote]
That's right, let's wait and see Cycloneye.

[ColinDelia]

In the last 2 frames (visible) this has the look of a .5 10 degree log spiral from the original 1984 Dvorak paper. That would make it T2.5 . That's 35 knots. Of course it's only 2 frames and different people see different things when they use the original Dvorak method.

[cycloneye]

SAB came with TD numbers.

04/1145 UTC 16.0N 45.7W T2.0/2.0 GASTON -- Atlantic

[ColinDelia]

I wish we had ADT Dvorak numbers but I guess it doesn't matter too much right now.

[ColinDelia]

LGEM wants to blow this thing up. 130 knots at hour 120 (@ 18.2N, 67.8W)

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 52 62 71 79 85 92 99 106
V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 52 62 71 79 85 92 99 102
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 50 60 73 90 107 119 128 130

[Fego]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

TD Gaston according to the Navy Page.

[Vortex]

Gaston looks to be "drying up" for now...He may have to get pass 50W to cough out this dry air...