ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

WOCN31 CWHX 041500
Tropical storm Earl intermediate information statement issued by
The Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 11.49 AM ADT
Saturday 04 September 2010.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT

At 12 noon ADT... Tropical storm Earl was located near latitude
44.5 N and longitude 64.2 W... Near Chester Nova Scotia.

Earl began rapid acceleration this morning and is now moving
Northeast at 40 knots ... 74 km/h. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 60 knots... 111 km/h and central pressure at 960 MB.
Earl is now a strong tropical storm which began the transition to
A post-tropical storm in the last couple of hours.

Earl made landfall in Nova Scotia near the Shelburne Queens
Counties boundary ... About 85 km southwest of Lunenburg ...
Around 10:30 AM ADT.

There is conflicting information as to whether Earl was a strong
tropical storm or a hurricane at landfall. These details will be
Sorted out in a post-storm analysis ... However the difference
between the two is only 8 km/h in terms of maximum wind speeds which
is easily within meteorological observation errors.

The following peak wind reports were received:

Baccaro Point 102 km/h ... 8 AM ADT
Western Head 98 km/h ... 10 AM ADT
Lunenburg 111 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
Obsborne head 109 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
McNabs Island 109 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
Bedford Basin 109 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
Halifax airport 111 km/h ... 11.43 AM ADT
Beaver Island 104 km/h ... 11 AM ADT
Browns Bank buoy ... 100 km/h
West Scotian Slope buoy ... 119 km/h.

The west Scotian Slope buoy also reported 13 metre significant
Wave heights at 11 AM ADT.

Reports received of more than 70 thousand customers with power
outages.

Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts
And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada.

End bowyer/fogarty

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Tropical storm Earl now over Nova Scotia, update 1:

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2010/09/tropical-storm-earl-over-nova-scotia.html

Still raining heavily here in SW New Brunswick. Winds have just gotten gusty past half hour or so. Sustained around 20 mph, with several peak gusts just over 40 mph. Getting clipped by the western TS force windfield here now. Lights flickering a bit. Nova Scotia no doubt, especially the Eastern half, getting pounding right about now going by all data.

If you look at those radar images with my last blog post. You can see that the center is still wrapped pretty tight over Nova Scotia, lots of curvature to the rainbands there.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Heavy band of torrential rain coming through now with gusty winds to over 40 mph. Hope everyone in Nova Scotia is safe. Storm is the worst here it has been yet.

[CrazyC83]

Current winds in the affected area (in mph):

Tropical storm gusts
Tropical storm sustained OR 58 mph gusts
58 mph sustained OR hurricane gusts
Hurricane sustained

Beaver Island - 66 G 77
Caribou Point - 46 G 61 (pressure 979)
Charlottetown - 33 G 43
Greenwood - 15 (pressure 974)
Halifax Airport - 47 G 76 (pressure 971)
Halifax City - 55 G 77
Lunenburg - 27 G 36 (pressure 975)
McNabs Island - 56 G 78 (pressure 972)
Osborne Head - 54 G 72
Port Hawkesbury - 39 G 52
Sydney - 26 G 33
Truro - 31 G 43 (pressure 979)

[Category 5]

Well, I ventured down to Long Branch, NJ yesterday, stayed from about 3:30pm to 7:45pm. Saw some amazing things, I have 400 pictures up on facebook, including massive waves (some 20 feet high), massive riptides, beach erosion, and an amazing sunset. I'll post to flickr later as well.

One of the videos on my youtube channel, I would not recommend trying this at home (standing on a washed out jetty in these conditions) The other two are on my channel or facebook.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7_tAdtl_T8

two more videos
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iecN-7RR ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI3Ur6IXElM

And a ton of photos (also on facebook, in fact, theres more of them on facebook)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/suketoketc ... 877558640/

[Recurve]

media overdone something again

I definitely disagree. Earl was a large and very dangerous Category 4 hurricane that could easily have tracked 50-100 miles west of the forecast and maintained its intensity as was forecast. We do not have the ability to predict precisely where a hurricane will track or when it will weaken. In fact, I don't think that there was enough reaction to this potential very deadly threat. People will be killed next time because they didn't react quickly enough.

Not to go too far off topic, but thank you Wxman.
For pete's sake, let's just do away with the NHC, then there won't be any "hype."

If a storm is less severe than the top-end forecasts (which always stress probabilities, not certainties), some people want everyone to know how smart they are and show their superiority by bashing the media, the forecasters and their neighbors who evacuated.

[Category 5]

The media spreading false information is one thing, but constant coverage of a storm that had the ability to do billions in damage is not overdoing it. Sorry if the result disappointed some people.

[artist]

Well, I ventured down to Long Branch, NJ yesterday, stayed from about 3:30pm to 7:45pm. Saw some amazing things, I have 400 pictures up on facebook, including massive waves (some 20 feet high), massive riptides, beach erosion, and an amazing sunset. I'll post to flickr later as well.

One of the videos on my youtube channel, I would not recommend trying this at home (standing on a washed out jetty in these conditions) The other two are on my channel or facebook.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7_tAdtl_T8

two more videos
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iecN-7RR ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI3Ur6IXElM

And a ton of photos (also on facebook, in fact, theres more of them on facebook)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/suketoketc ... 877558640/

thanks for posting those! In part one you could really hear the winds. Incredible waves! The ocean looks just furious!

[Category 5]

Well, I ventured down to Long Branch, NJ yesterday, stayed from about 3:30pm to 7:45pm. Saw some amazing things, I have 400 pictures up on facebook, including massive waves (some 20 feet high), massive riptides, beach erosion, and an amazing sunset. I'll post to flickr later as well.

One of the videos on my youtube channel, I would not recommend trying this at home (standing on a washed out jetty in these conditions) The other two are on my channel or facebook.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7_tAdtl_T8

two more videos
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iecN-7RR ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI3Ur6IXElM

And a ton of photos (also on facebook, in fact, theres more of them on facebook)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/suketoketc ... 877558640/

thanks for posting those! In part one you could really hear the winds. Incredible waves! The ocean looks just furious!

If you can believe it, the highest I measured was only 27mph.

[artist]

Well, I ventured down to Long Branch, NJ yesterday, stayed from about 3:30pm to 7:45pm. Saw some amazing things, I have 400 pictures up on facebook, including massive waves (some 20 feet high), massive riptides, beach erosion, and an amazing sunset. I'll post to flickr later as well.

One of the videos on my youtube channel, I would not recommend trying this at home (standing on a washed out jetty in these conditions) The other two are on my channel or facebook.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7_tAdtl_T8

two more videos
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iecN-7RR ... re=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI3Ur6IXElM
just shows you how the wind can be deceiving.
And a ton of photos (also on facebook, in fact, theres more of them on facebook)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/suketoketc ... 877558640/

thanks for posting those! In part one you could really hear the winds. Incredible waves! The ocean looks just furious!

If you can believe it, the highest I measured was only 27mph.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2010/09/tropical-storm-earl-over-nova-scotia_04.html

After a rough few hours things are now rapidly clearing out here in SW NB. Never lost the main power this time, so I'm happy. Earl wasn't as bad as many winter & fall nor'easters here imo.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2010/09/tropical-storm-earl-over-nova-scotia_3680.html

Update Number 3

Cloudy, breezy & cooler here with the passage of Earl. Our heatwave finally is over. Other than two bushes that lost some dead branches, & some rain that got into an open window, no damage on my property. Bye bye Ear, see ya likely in 2016.

[artist]

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2010/09/tropical-storm-earl-over-nova-scotia_3680.html

Update Number 3

Cloudy, breezy & cooler here with the passage of Earl. Our heatwave finally is over. Other than two bushes that lost some dead branches, & some rain that got into an open window, no damage on my property. Bye bye Ear, see ya likely in 2016.

so good to hear hybridstorm!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2010/09/tropical-storm-earl-over-nova-scotia_3680.html

Update Number 3

Cloudy, breezy & cooler here with the passage of Earl. Our heatwave finally is over. Other than two bushes that lost some dead branches, & some rain that got into an open window, no damage on my property. Bye bye Ear, see ya likely in 2016.

so good to hear hybridstorm!

Thanks Artist, that means a lot.

[HurricaneBelle]

P.E.-eye:

[ncweatherwizard]

media overdone something again

I definitely disagree. Earl was a large and very dangerous Category 4 hurricane that could easily have tracked 50-100 miles west of the forecast and maintained its intensity as was forecast. We do not have the ability to predict precisely where a hurricane will track or when it will weaken. In fact, I don't think that there was enough reaction to this potential very deadly threat. People will be killed next time because they didn't react quickly enough.

The media will "overdo" just about anything these days---that's a completely different topic for discussion that we'll pass here. I think what Wxman is saying matches my feeling that we perhaps got a little lucky with this one. At the same time though, the ability to not overextend a false alarm to a large population was given only by very consistent model guidance which never really hinted at Earl making landfall. Of course, models can be wrong, and a shift to the west by 50 to 100 miles was certainly possible. But that was two to three days out when residents who did not evacuate could have still taken action. When we got down to crunchtime, the models remained consistent, and it became less likely that Earl was going to shift west unexpectedly.

Models aren't perfect. We'll have a situation where they say a storm won't hit land, then gradually shift until the storm hits a major city. It might happen this year for all we know. But generally, we then convey enough uncertainty in those types of situations to put more people on alert with plenty of time to prepare.

With the exception of maybe that Hurricane Watch from the NC/VA border to Delaware with which I strongly disagreed, NHC did an excellent job at putting together the right watches/warnings to give people notice of what would happen but not create a sense of false alarm. This is the type of forecasting that we need as we move to better models and analysis in the next 25 years. Perhaps the riskiest part in all of this, the decisions most people made weren't based on anything the NHC said though, but rather on the opinions of local TV broadcast meteorologists who most greatly influence how people prepare. (This enters a completely new topic about how effectively TV broadcasters convey uncertainty). If the models had shifted west though, the broadcasters would have jumped all over it, and people would have been ready.

Hopefully, we'll gradually be able to treat hurricanes as less of a black box as we have in the past. I understand that preventing loss of life is the foremost mission in forecasting tropical cyclones. But people and businesses also lose money if they prepare unnecessarily for a storm. Getting the forecast more and more exact and accurate is exactly what we need.

[CrazyC83]

Could they upgrade the storm if Wreckhouse or Grand Etang (Les Suetes) produce hurricane-force winds? Or would those be seen as "not representative of its intensity"?

[CrazyC83]

According to Environment Canada, it was a hurricane at landfall...and I would agree. I'd guess 70 kt for the intensity thinking the highest winds were not sampled.

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

EARL MADE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRRICANE IN NOVA SCOTIA
NEAR THE SHELBURNE QUEENS COUNTIES BOUNDARY ... ABOUT 85 KM
SOUTHWEST OF LUNENBURG ... AROUND 10:30 AM ADT.

PEAK WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WERE RECEIVED FROM NUMEROUS OBSERVING
SITES WITHIN THE HALIFAX REGIONAL MUNICIPALITY AND HARBOUR WITH A
MAXIMUM OF 130 KM/H REPORTED FROM MCNABS ISLAND. BEAVER ISLAND
REPORTED 135 KM/H PEAK WINDS AT 1PM ADT. HALIFAX INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT GUSTED TO 120 KM/H FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE HOURS. NS POWER
REPORTED WELL OVER ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND CUSTOMERS LOST POWER.

THE HIGHEST WINDS FOR EASTERN PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND WILL BE
OCCURRING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GALES ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BRUSH
ALONG WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND THIS EVENING AND WIND WARNINGS WILL
FOLLOW FOR THOSE AREAS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARIED FROM LESS THAN 25 MM ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TO 35-45 MM FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
AND IN NEW BRUNSWICK WHERE RAIN WAS ENHANCED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN HALIFAX COUNTY AND GUYSBOROUGH
COUNTY.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA AND CAPE BRETON. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN P.I.E. AND THE MAGDELAN ISLANDS.
SOME OF THESE WARNINGS MAY BE ENDED WITHIN A FEW HOURS.

THE TIDES ARE RUNNING LOW (NEAP) ... AND COMBINED WITH THE STORM
ARRIVAL NEAR DAILY LOW TIDE THE THREAT OF STORM SURGE DAMAGE IS LOW.
HALIFAX HARBOUR REPORTED A SURGE OF 1.2 METRES AND NORTHUMBERLAND
STRAIT AVERAGED 0.8 M ... ALL WITHOUT IMPACT BECAUSE OF THE LOW TIDE.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Damn four huge gusts just happened here about 15 minutes ago. One peaked at 51 mph jeez lol.

[CrazyC83]

I agree, Earl will probably be back in 2016 - nowhere does it appear the damage was bad enough to warrant retirement. Nice try Earl, but you wasted your energy on poor fish! (I know it wasn't a fish storm, but the core remained over water when it was a beast)