ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#801 Postby Fego » Sat Sep 04, 2010 9:48 am

My bad... It has been there all this time.

(TD Gaston on Monterey website ... wxman57)
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#802 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 04, 2010 10:08 am

For me is not a surprise the not upgrading at 11 because it looks unhealthy at the moment.

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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#803 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 04, 2010 10:10 am

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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#804 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 04, 2010 10:26 am

I get the impression that if the Caribbean hostile upper doesn't do this one in it will be the type of system that makes it into an untapped Atlantic area to boom later on.
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#805 Postby BigA » Sat Sep 04, 2010 10:26 am

As has been mentioned before, there seems to be something special about 50 west. When Ex-Gaston passes this, I believe that it will regenerate some sustained convection.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#806 Postby Migle » Sat Sep 04, 2010 10:40 am

Looks like it lost all of its convection thanks to the dry air. Looks like we have to wait to later tonight to see Gaston again.
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#807 Postby supercane » Sat Sep 04, 2010 11:03 am

It's not a matter of ASCAT:
Image

Microwave showed a ball of convection without much banding:
Image

Buoy 41041 south of the center had winds shift from typical NE trades yesterday to SW currently peaking at around 16kt sustained earlier. NDBC Buoy 41041 site
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#808 Postby Tstormwatcher » Sat Sep 04, 2010 11:06 am

Looks like alot of dry air and dust surrounding it.
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#809 Postby Gustywind » Sat Sep 04, 2010 11:32 am

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#810 Postby ColinDelia » Sat Sep 04, 2010 11:54 am

Oceanic Heat Content on the increase. "Gaston" is at about where the 12 hour image is now.

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#811 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 04, 2010 12:02 pm

50W is often the longitude for many storms that have delayed development to get going..I think by later tonight we may see more sustained and lasting convection....
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#812 Postby OURAGAN » Sat Sep 04, 2010 12:09 pm

It seems like Gaston is for us in guadeloupe as this Forecast points
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#813 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 04, 2010 12:10 pm

The ULL over the Caribbean should affect the SST climatology as it progresses past 50W. Perhaps the system will transfer directly from dry air inhibition to ULL. I get the feeling that since we are in prime time the system should do better against hostile conditions. If a more north track materializes Gaston would tap the north of Antilles waters that sometimes breed Florida-bound monsters. The seasonal timing is right for such a storm. But if you follow the trend the track is sliding north so I would be concerned about any east coast location.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#814 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 04, 2010 12:11 pm

Convection has to increase over the circulation to then get the upgrade.

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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#815 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 04, 2010 12:15 pm

Image

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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#816 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Sat Sep 04, 2010 12:17 pm

Looks like convection maybe trying to wrap around the western side of the circulation. The key word is trying.
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#817 Postby ColinDelia » Sat Sep 04, 2010 12:23 pm

The 12z GFS brings the ULL to Haiti by 48 hours then moves to the SW Caribbean by 72 hours
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#818 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 04, 2010 12:31 pm

Well developed circulation...convection should really increase tonight and that should be enough for the upgrade...It's looking more and more like this system is westbound in the long term..
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#819 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 04, 2010 12:32 pm

I noticed that colin and that will really help to ventilate the system...Also if it stays just north of PR and the greater antilles gaston could really bomb out before entering the bahamas...
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#820 Postby OURAGAN » Sat Sep 04, 2010 12:34 pm

Tropical cyclone formation Alert at NRL

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