ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[msbee]

Gusty
that doesn't look very well organized. and it looks pretty far north too

[cycloneye]

Gusty
that doesn't look very well organized. and it looks pretty far north too

Barbara, if it continues to move wnw, it may miss all the islands so is great news for us if it continues going this way. I dont buy at all a wsw movement as it was progged in the past few days.

[Gustywind]

Gusty
that doesn't look very well organized. and it looks pretty far north too

Yeah i'm quite agree with you Msbee. As Cycloneye mentionned it previously " it has a lot of work to do"! Whereas looks like convection is trying to refire but once again very very slightly... As usual and as we're in the peak of the season i advice all islanders to maintain always an eye on this feature, especially those who lived in the Leewards (Huc, Msbee and the others friends). We never know, Mother Nature is always full of surprises. Let's wait and see.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Gusty
that doesn't look very well organized. and it looks pretty far north too

Barbara, if it continues to move wnw, it may miss all the islands so is great news for us if it continues going this way. I dont buy at all a wsw movement as it was progged in the past few days.

That will be good news for us Cycloneye after Earl and Fiona, a well welcomed rest in the islands! But that's not the moment to let our guard down with this "leazy" ex Gaston. We should continue to follow it as given NHC a TD could form at anytime.

[Gustywind]

SAL is fairly decreasing right now between the the 50w and the Lesser Antilles. Whereas, will it be sufficient to allow this feature (ex Gaston) to gain more convection given the increasing sst's to make an ultime comeback as TD tonight or especially tommorow?

[msbee]

Gusty and Luis
I was looking for a 5 PM update to see what NHC siad.
Has one come out?
Let's hope for it to go way North and stay disorganized

[fasterdisaster]

Convection is weak, but the organization is actually fairly good and still improving.

[cycloneye]

Gusty and Luis
I was looking for a 5 PM update to see what NHC siad.
Has one come out?
Let's hope for it to go way North and stay disorganized

No 5 PM advisory was issued by NHC. Lets now wait for the 8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook and see if they go up, stays at 80% or go down.

[Aric Dunn]

the upper environment is not that conducive for convection at the moment.. but should be in about 12 to 24 hours when things become a little more divergent aloft

[Migle]

I think they will stay at 80% for the 8pm TWO. Looks like we will have to wait to tomorrow to see Gaston come back. It gained alot of convection over night and then lost it in the morning. Let's see if that happens again.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[Cryomaniac]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_pages/thumbnails/thumbs/tc10/ATL/09L.GASTON/amsre/89hw/thumb/20100904.1645.aqua1.x.89hw.09LGASTON.30kts-1007mb-166N-466W.71pc.jpg

latest

Looks to have a very good structure, just very little convection.

[cycloneye]

IMO,down to 40% at 8 PM.

[emeraldislencguy]

stays at 80% at 8 and theone in the BOC is 40% and the other one in the atlantic is now down to 0 percent

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE WITTLE
QUEBEC.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GASTON HAVE DIMINISHED SOME THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
...HOWEVER...APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA AT ANY TIME.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TODAY...AND
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Migle]

That seems just right. If convection shows up tonight, we could easily have a TD in the morning.

[AtlanticWind]

I would really expect this to blow up when this passes 50 west as the SST's are muchn warmer , also a path just north of the islands seems most likely IMO.

[Gustywind]

Maintained at 80%...

[Macrocane]

I agree with the NHC, with that structure it only needs to pass 50W (I know it has been repeated a lot today ) and a D-max to increase and mantain convection.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 0246at.jpg