ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Gustywind]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2010246at.jpg

Thanks

[bob rulz]

Wow, look at the Western Caribbean! You would imagine that sometime this year there will be a storm to take advantage of that unfortunately.

Gaston has a great structure but as others have said is still lacking in convection. Seems to still be feeling the after-effects of that dry air intrusion.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 042351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB LOW...REMNANT OF GASTON...IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
NEAR 17N47W MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
CURVED BAND SWIRLING AROUND THE WRN SEMICIRCLE FEEDING INTO THE
LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND
FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 45W-50W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA AT ANY TIME.

[cycloneye]

I was surprised that NHC left the 80% with the lack of convection. But as others have said, the structure is good so is a matter that convection pops and mantain to then start to develop.

[bvigal]

Normally that position would not be such a big concern, but the models are just PERSISTANT in moving this thing almost due west. It just keeps me watching very carefully, because I KNOW this could regenerate and strengthen very quickly. The faster it happens, the less prepared people will be who are still cleaning up from Earl.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early2.png

[Blown Away]

The structure is much improved from yesterday, convection popping a little near the LLC, and I see a WSW dip in the last few frames.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 09, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 167N, 477W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[bvigal]

00z Best Track

AL, 09, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 167N, 477W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

So, that's a gain of 0.1 degree N (16.6) and 1.1 degree west (46.6)from last fix, right? 11 degrees west for each degree north, that's about 18N 60W, no?

[Vortex]

looks more and more like it might miss the islands and PR...models are beginning to abandon the sw movement...TCVN looks about right...This would be great news for the islands but possibly bad news for those upstream as gaston would remain over water with very favorable environmental conditions.

[ConvergenceZone]

If you look at that model map that bvigal posted, you can see how all of the models are very tightly clustered just north of Puerto Rico and moving west bound. Thus I'm beginning to think that the chance of Gaston(if it develops) recurving is very slim....

[Bailey1777]

on the end of most model runs there is a slight bend to the north is that areal move or is it expected to resume a westerly path?

[CaribJam]

What is the current steering flow in the proximity of Ex-Gaston?

[Florida1118]

By the end of the model run, are models starting to curve it to the EC or Is it still headed westward at the end of the run?

[blazess556]

By the end of the model run, are models starting to curve it to the EC or Is it still headed westward at the end of the run?

it is still headed westward

[dwsqos2]

No global model really does anything with this. The progged 200 mb winds appear to be okay, but things are still kind of stable out there.
So using no real logic other than globals don't spit out a bunch of closed isobars I vote no development.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ericinmia]

No global model really does anything with this. The progged 200 mb winds appear to be okay, but things are still kind of stable out there.
So using no real logic other than globals don't spit out a bunch of closed isobars I vote no development.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I would have to disagree...
Look into the SHIPS, LGEM, etc... they all are strength models and indicate some serious strengthening in the next 120+ hours.
Also the 12z GFS had a pretty strong hurricane, and the CMC was showing a Hurricane entering the Bahamas (I think 12z also). You can not base an entire theory on only the latest model run... when the average of them all, and the TREND is for this to eventually strengthen into something serious. (Heck, even the NHC is sticking to the fact this will eventually get going.)


Also remember that a ridge is predicted (per the NAM and others) to build over this storm in the coming days... and the ULL is supposed to eventually move to a position that it will be ventilating this system.... if that all happens: WATCH OUT!
-Eric

[cycloneye]

Some models may be very bullish on this to develop,but as of this moment, it looks anemic.

[Vortex]

per IR sat image 145utc..notice the convection beggining to "pop" on the western side of the circulation...that would be near 50W...Ive seen many storms over the years that remain in check until passing 50W..this one may be no different. Should be interesting to watch the sat images come in from this point on.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow Luis, is that really Gaston? Looks like Gaston is running out of Gas..... I wonder if it still has an LLC? It does look very anemic, you are right. Will it or won't it survive...Hmmmm