ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[supercane]

Not yet, anyway, as the recent ASCAT pass above clearly shows a low. However, I agree that the system does not look as good now as it did 24 hr ago, and that it may very well degenerate to an open wave if convection doesn't pop near the center tonight. Also, the upper level environment ahead does not look as favorable.

UW-CIMSS-derived map with sat, obs, shear, ASCAT, model overlays.

[hurricaneCW]

I don't think this one is finished either. It may look dead but we've seen time and time again, that the seemingly harmless disturbances become the stuff that nightmares are made of. The gfs really like the wave that will come off of Africa instead of this one, however this one is a threat to land, the other one is a likely recurve.

[dwsqos2]

00Z gfs looks similar to the 18Z gfs through hour 48. I continue to anticipate no regeneration.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Bailey1777]

even without convection right now this one a nice tight spin i highly doubt it would have spun down that fast.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html
Not very official but if you zoom in on the visible, yes I know the visible is no good at night, you can clearly see a tight LLC. IMO, it looks like it is moving slightly south of west.

[ConvergenceZone]

Okay, I may have spoke to soon about there not being an LLC, but if it doesn't START getting its act together overnight, then there isn't going to be anything left of it tomorrow to get its act together.....
It has about 12 hours or so left in my opinion to start building convection.

[Blown Away]

Not yet, anyway, as the recent ASCAT pass above clearly shows a low. However, I agree that the system does not look as good now as it did 24 hr ago, and that it may very well degenerate to an open wave if convection doesn't pop near the center tonight. Also, the upper level environment ahead does not look as favorable.

From 8pm discussion: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GASTON HAVE DIMINISHED SOME THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
...HOWEVER...APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA AT ANY TIME.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[ConvergenceZone]

I am suprised Blown Away that they kept it at 80%. I thought for sure they would bring it down. I mean 80% with the NHC means that it's pretty much "certain" that it's going to happen. Hmmm....

[ConvergenceZone]

Another thing too is that WXMAN stated tonight that this keeps gaining latitude. Yet, the TWO's keep mentioning that it's moving "westard".... Any thoughts on this?

[cycloneye]

I am suprised Blown Away that they kept it at 80%. I thought for sure they would bring it down. I mean 80% with the NHC means that it's pretty much "certain" that it's going to happen. Hmmm....

I really can't see 80% at 2 AM with the images presentation.

[CourierPR]

If you read the earlier post from NWS San Juan, you can see that this system needs a little more time, 12 to 24 hours, for the synoptics to materialize that may allow it to develop. The TWC thinks this has a good shot at developing. With all the manic posts on this board, I may need lithium to save my sanity.

[dixiebreeze]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT SAT 04 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-096

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. PROBABLE 6-HRLY FIXES ON THE REMNANTS OF GASTON
NEAR 16.5N 55.0W AT 06/1200Z.
B. A G-IV FLIGHT FOR 07/0000Z.
C. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 22.5N 96.5W AT 06/1500Z.
3. REMARKS: NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 9 HR RESEARCH FLIGHT
INTO GASTON ABOVE 41,000 FT. DEPARTING 05/1000Z.

[HURAKAN]

unofficial track

[ROCK]

not gaining lat right now...if anything Blown away is right...moving a little s of west attm.....

its not dead..not yet..I saw the 0z GFS loses it around 132hr in the carib....

Earl did the same thing as I recall....every one was calling it then it blew some cold tops and took off....

[cycloneye]

Last image before eclipse show some reds popping up. Lets see how it looks after the eclipse is over.

[fci]

NHC pretty smart in not issuing advisories over the past 24 hours as members on this board clamored for them and insisted that Gaston had risen from the dead.
Looks pretty pathetic now.
No way is this more than 60% at 2 AM and that high only because it would be bizarre to go from 80% to 40% in 6 hours.
Just my opinion.
Let's see......

[Florida1118]

THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED...HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA
LATER TODAY OR MONDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

[dwsqos2]

Earl did the same thing as I recall....every one was calling it then it blew some cold tops and took off....

Earl's subjective t numbers never fell below 2.0; in fact the data t was usually above 2.5. Earl had a far better defined low-level circulation; that is, low-level convergence was far better. Also, models consistently spat out a bunch of closed isobars for Earl, and even the CMC can't muster that for ex-Gaston. While there have been storms to develop without any model support (Felix), I just don't think it happens this time.

I guess I should qualify that last sentence as not an official forecast.

[Wthrman13]

NHC pretty smart in not issuing advisories over the past 24 hours as members on this board clamored for them and insisted that Gaston had risen from the dead.
Looks pretty pathetic now.
No way is this more than 60% at 2 AM and that high only because it would be bizarre to go from 80% to 40% in 6 hours.
Just my opinion.
Let's see......

Hmmm, guess that years of formal education and experience in understanding and forecasting tropical cyclones is actually worth something

I personally think that ex-Gaston does have a decent chance, but it might take a while for it to get its act back together.

[Aric Dunn]

I mentioned it before so Just keep waiting.. another 15 to 24 hours and we will have gaston back...