ATL: GASTON - Models

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not putting too much stock in the 18z GFs, it kept deviating with crazy runs with Earl and Fiona as well. If this scenario shows up in the 0z run tonight and 12z tomorrow I'll give it more credence.

[ROCK]

0Z GFS has nada at 132hr.....who was bashing the ECM earlier today?

[ROCK]

0z CMC does not develop it....just a weak reflection / TW moving into Cuba area....

[Wx_Warrior]

BOC is more exciting than Gastón.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmm, seems like all of the models are starting to back off of developing Gaston now...It doesn't suprise me though, based upon how it's looking.

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS. 42 hours. Very weak. Approaching leewards

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS. 36 hours. 200 mb. ULL over Haiti.

[ColinDelia]

60 hours. Goes Houdini.

[Blown Away]

IMO the models that don't develop have Gaston moving over the big islands

[ColinDelia]

174 hours. Near the Yucutan. That's a long track across some warm drink without developing.

[Ola]

Why nobody posted this?

WHXX01 KWBC 050646

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0646 UTC SUN SEP 5 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE GASTON (AL092010) 20100905 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100905 0600 100905 1800 100906 0600 100906 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 49.2W 17.0N 51.6W 17.0N 54.3W 17.4N 57.4W
BAMD 16.7N 49.2W 16.9N 51.5W 17.1N 54.1W 17.2N 57.1W
BAMM 16.7N 49.2W 16.7N 51.0W 16.4N 53.3W 16.3N 55.8W
LBAR 16.7N 49.2W 17.0N 51.6W 17.4N 54.3W 17.8N 57.3W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100907 0600 100908 0600 100909 0600 100910 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.4N 60.2W 17.7N 65.6W 18.4N 69.6W 18.8N 72.8W
BAMD 17.4N 60.0W 18.0N 65.1W 18.7N 68.8W 19.7N 71.5W
BAMM 16.2N 58.4W 16.6N 63.0W 17.5N 66.5W 18.5N 69.5W
LBAR 18.0N 60.2W 18.2N 65.3W 17.9N 69.3W 17.2N 72.3W
SHIP 47KTS 68KTS 86KTS 106KTS
DSHP 47KTS 68KTS 86KTS 96KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 49.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 16.6N LONM12 = 46.6W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 15.9N LONM24 = 44.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

It once again brings Gaston through Puerto Rico and not north of it. In fact most if not all models now do.

[ronjon]

While this system looks pathetic now this is exactly the type of storm that needs to be watched carefully. Models are all coming into rough agreement on track taking it through the greater antilles (either just south or just north of them, depending on strength). Conditions look marginal for immediate development but at some point they'll get better and then it'll take off - question is...where will it be then...Hispanola, PR, western caribbean, bahamas, straits, or GOM?

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 051227
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1227 UTC SUN SEP 5 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE GASTON (AL092010) 20100905 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100905  1200   100906  0000   100906  1200   100907  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.8N  50.0W   17.1N  52.4W   17.2N  55.6W   17.6N  58.7W
BAMD    16.8N  50.0W   17.0N  52.6W   17.3N  55.6W   17.6N  58.7W
BAMM    16.8N  50.0W   16.7N  52.2W   16.5N  54.8W   16.5N  57.6W
LBAR    16.8N  50.0W   17.0N  52.5W   17.2N  55.3W   17.4N  58.3W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          32KTS          39KTS
DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          32KTS          39KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100907  1200   100908  1200   100909  1200   100910  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.6N  61.7W   18.1N  66.8W   18.7N  70.6W   19.3N  74.3W
BAMD    17.9N  61.6W   18.6N  66.3W   19.6N  69.6W   20.8N  71.9W
BAMM    16.5N  60.3W   16.9N  64.7W   17.8N  68.1W   18.9N  71.4W
LBAR    17.4N  61.3W   17.4N  66.4W   17.3N  70.3W   17.3N  74.0W
SHIP        50KTS          70KTS          87KTS         104KTS
DSHP        50KTS          70KTS          87KTS          56KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.8N LONCUR =  50.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =  16.7N LONM12 =  47.7W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  16.3N LONM24 =  45.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[Ola]

Hey Cycloneye, thats a Cat 1 right over us.

[gatorcane]

06z hwrf develops this into cat 1 passing just north of Puerto Rico heading westnorthwest

[cycloneye]

Hey Cycloneye, thats a Cat 1 right over us.

Yep,if that intensity holds,we may get pounded and we know that the infrastructure is not the best but that is for another topic.

[Ola]

Hey Cycloneye, thats a Cat 1 right over us.

Yep,if that intensity holds,we may get pounded and we know that the infrastructure is not the best but that is for another topic.

Actually, since Earl passed and caused all the power outages, if they got fixed, it would probably mean a lot less power problems for us. All those branches that broke and took out power lines were the weak ones. Now that those are out of the way, we will bear a lot better in the next one than if Earl didnt brush by. Just like small fires help prevent really big fires in a forest, small storms can be beneficial to keep weak trees out.

[ROCK]

what no one stayed up for the EURO? I am ashamed WX Warrior....

redevelops Gaston in the carib..


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

[Migle]

This one is going to cause a lot of problems. This would be bad, very bad, for the islands and this could even be worse than Earl if it goes right over them. And then we have to worry about what it does if it gets into the GOM...

[HouTXmetro]

Starting to look like a west runner if it does develop.