ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Climo still says it would be extremely rare for a storm within 65nm of Gaston's position to enter the Caribbean or hit the U.S. I am still thinking north of BVI and north of PR then recurve.

Wxman, I ran my own query which included all storms in all months passing with 65NM of Gaston's location. I got several more that have impacted the U.S. than you did. Are you querying all months, or just September?

At any rate, the query considers "all storms" not a strong tropical wave that we have right now. In addition, I don't see any synoptic features that will recurve this away from the U.S. as well if it develops. Seems like a stronger storms rides to the north of the Leewards towards the Bahamas and a weaker one, or open wave passes through the Antilles or just south.

[wxman57]

Climo aside, what synoptic feature would induce a recurve north of PR? I don't see anything to cause that. The trough off the US East coast is forecast to be too weak to lead to a recurve.

Climo still says it would be extremely rare for a storm within 65nm of Gaston's position to enter the Caribbean or hit the U.S. I am still thinking north of BVI and north of PR then recurve.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/paststorms.gif

The high to its north (by Wed/Thu) looks quite weak. There's a large TUTT across the eastern Caribbean now right in Gaston's path. And another cold front/upper trof will be moving off the East U.S. Coast on Wed/Thu. I didn't say it would recurve AT PR, just that it would not recurve until it passed PR.

[wxman57]

Climo still says it would be extremely rare for a storm within 65nm of Gaston's position to enter the Caribbean or hit the U.S. I am still thinking north of BVI and north of PR then recurve.

Wxman, I ran my own query which included all storms in all months passing with 65NM of Gaston's location. I got a few more that have impacted the U.S. than you did. Are you querying all months, or just September?

At any rate, the query considers "all storms" not a strong tropical wave that we have right now. In addition, I don't see any synoptic features that will recurve this away from the U.S. as well if it develops. Seems like a stronger storms rides to the north of the Leewards towards the Bahamas and a weaker one, or open wave passes through the Antilles or just south.

I did just September, gatorcane. June-August wouldn't be representative because there are no cold fronts or deep trofs moving off the East U.S. Coast then, typically. And the Bermuda high is typically stronger the first half of the season.

[Aric Dunn]

about 12 hours left...

[coreyl]

about 12 hours left...

For?

[Ivanhater]

I just can't see this recurving, that scenario has no model support whatsoever. If anything, it may just crash into the Yucatan.

[gatorcane]

Climo aside, what synoptic feature would induce a recurve north of PR? I don't see anything to cause that. The trough off the US East coast is forecast to be too weak to lead to a recurve.

Climo still says it would be extremely rare for a storm within 65nm of Gaston's position to enter the Caribbean or hit the U.S. I am still thinking north of BVI and north of PR then recurve.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/paststorms.gif

The high to its north (by Wed/Thu) looks quite weak. There's a large TUTT across the eastern Caribbean now right in Gaston's path. And another cold front/upper trof will be moving off the East U.S. Coast on Wed/Thu.

You must be talking about this shortwave as seen by day 4 digging into the Western Atlantic? I suppose that if Gaston does develop into something significant, it could recurve with this type of setup. The GFS has kept it weak the past couple of runs (an open wave), so explains why it just heads west with the easterly flow in the Caribbean.

[Aric Dunn]

about 12 hours left...

For?

well ex-gaston gets into a better upper environment. I made a few post yesterday and last night about it..

[Aric Dunn]

yeah no recurve especially while its so weak. the ridge is plenty strong enough and building to keep the system moving west with maybe a wsw motion if it stays weak.

[x-y-no]

Climo still says it would be extremely rare for a storm within 65nm of Gaston's position to enter the Caribbean or hit the U.S. I am still thinking north of BVI and north of PR then recurve.

That certainly seems to be the best bet, especially given the pattern so far this year.

The caveat is that there's some small percentage chance that the timing is just wrong and it gets caught under the EC ridge that periodically builds in and shoots the Florida Straights or SFL into the Gulf. Basically, the scenario that the Euro was showing with Fiona for a few runs before it flipped to the correct solution.

[Vortex]

NWS San Juan this morning:


THESE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THIS LOW TO RE-DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE EITHER LATER TODAY OR MONDAY. WHILE THE
EXACT TIMING...TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM ALL REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...LOCAL RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY LATE TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. NOT CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

[gatorcane]

Convection starting to wrap into the "llc" (center). Seems to be well on its way to regenerating into a TD or TS. Click this link to see what I mean:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

[Bailey1777]

imo no recurve if this makes a comeback which i believe it will i can see a gom player. just my opinion though.

[Migle]

Convection starting to wrap into the "llc" (center). Seems to be well on its way to regenerating into a TD or TS. Click this link to see what I mean:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

Definitely looks like building convection around the center. Maybe a TD or TS again 5 if this keeps up.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection starting to wrap into the "llc" (center). Seems to be well on its way to regenerating into a TD or TS. Click this link to see what I mean:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

easterly shear is still a bit much but the upper environment is slowly becoming better. it may try to ramp up quickly just before the islands..

[gatorcane]

Climo aside, what synoptic feature would induce a recurve north of PR? I don't see anything to cause that. The trough off the US East coast is forecast to be too weak to lead to a recurve.

Climo still says it would be extremely rare for a storm within 65nm of Gaston's position to enter the Caribbean or hit the U.S. I am still thinking north of BVI and north of PR then recurve.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/paststorms.gif

Jconsor, can you elaborate on what type of synoptics you see for this system that would not cause a recurve if it were to develop?

[Tireman4]

I guess this bears watching no matter which way the disturbance goes.

[Bailey1777]

how many of the models that have synoptic input call for a recurve? i just dont see it.

[ColinDelia]

12z SHIPS takes this to 98knots at 108 hours before hitting Hispaniola
12z LGEM takes this to 121 knots at 108 hours before hitting Hispaniola

(Very low Shear after 24 hours)

Uses BAMM track for a track this run

[Aric Dunn]

none of the models recurve at least none of the reliable models... the short wave trough does is not digging far enough south and the ridge is building in all the way to the gulf.