ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[lonelymike]

Could yet redevelop but I just can't see it, esp given the models are now pretty much in total agreement that its not going to form.

You go from major hurricane to not developing in the matter of a few posts?

[hurricaneCW]

Either this system has no chance to develop and will dissipate or it's a ticking time bomb that's just waiting to go off. I could easily see this system explode once it gets into the Caribbean but I can also see it completely die off and I'd put my money on the latter.

[Sanibel]

You go from major hurricane to not developing in the matter of a few posts?

Which is perfectly reasonable because, if you have a good understanding of cyclones, the margins are set up so that is possible. Cyclones are weird that way, they exist at a very slim margin between development and non-development which is why NHC itself can't predict them perfectly either. Here we have a little more leeway.

[KWT]

Could yet redevelop but I just can't see it, esp given the models are now pretty much in total agreement that its not going to form.

You go from major hurricane to not developing in the matter of a few posts?

I've not said anywhere today since the models have all jumped off about a major hurricane, I did say it needs watching in the W.Caribbean/W BoC/Gulf but I weren't implying anything that strong!

Typically when you have all models offboard like we have seen a system probably won't end up developing...

[amawea]

Could yet redevelop but I just can't see it, esp given the models are now pretty much in total agreement that its not going to form.

You go from major hurricane to not developing in the matter of a few posts?

I went back several pages and did not see anywhere that kwt said this would be a major. Even if he had what Sanibel said is correct.

[artist]

Look at the visible loop - the closed circulation is obvious. Also, it's elongated east-west, not north-south.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

Gaston looks like it has a wave like configuration to it now.Its eleongated north to south and no longer has that weak circulation to it.I think the 30% will win out.I think when the NHC updates at 2pm they'll drop the percentage of development to 30 or 40% if that.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-avn.html

are you willing to go out on a limb and tell us what you think ex-Gaston might do?

[Sanibel]

I think I'm seeing a pull-up. The Gaston Low should either go right over the Antilles or pull above them.


This is acting like the previous naked spirals in this area earlier this year. My thoughts are since the western Gulf is showing good moisture that even a nude system has a chance of blooming convection.

[ColinDelia]

The 200 mb high is getting closer and closer to gaston.

[Blown Away]

TAFB shifted north and has the low going westward and not WSW once it enters the Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

even a nude system has a chance of blooming convection.

What would such a system look like?

[Blown Away]

Does look like the LLC is moving north of due west?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

[x-y-no]

Does look like the LLC is moving north of due west?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

Ever so slightly, yes. I'm not seeing any hint of the advertised south of west movement. I'm thinking it may run straight across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, like the BAMD track (except it's not showing any sign of deepening either, so really one would expect the BAMS to be better ... )

[Aric Dunn]

Just a little longer peeps... still to get a little closer to carrib where things improve. looks like shear has come down a little which was expected as it approached the upper trough, and upper divergence has increased.

[emeraldislencguy]

what do yall guys think the percertange should be for it to become a tropical storm
just wondering what the pro mets think

[CourierPR]

Just a little longer peeps... still to get a little closer to carrib where things improve.

Aric, I agree. This morning's tropical weather discussion at Crown Weather indicated that conditions will improve as the system gets farther west. The discussion also indicated that the models that the NHC relies on are showing significant strengthening.

[Aric Dunn]

Just a little longer peeps... still to get a little closer to carrib where things improve.

Aric, I agree. This morning's tropical weather discussion at Crown Weather indicated that conditions will improve as the system gets farther west. The discussion also indicated that the models that the NHC relies on are showing significant strengthening.

yeah I have been mentioning it for a couple days now. only problem was that the circ may not survive but it is doing quite well..

[Sanibel]

The feature is very close to busting. It needs another burst quick.

[Blown Away]

Just a little longer peeps... still to get a little closer to carrib where things improve.

Aric, I agree. This morning's tropical weather discussion at Crown Weather indicated that conditions will improve as the system gets farther west. The discussion also indicated that the models that the NHC relies on are showing significant strengthening.

Define "farther west"? (E of 60W, E Caribbean, C Caribbean, W Caribbean)??

[boca]

Look at the northern part of x Gaston around 21n and 61w looks like a burst on its tail.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

[fci]

Just a little longer peeps... still to get a little closer to carrib where things improve.

Aric, I agree. This morning's tropical weather discussion at Crown Weather indicated that conditions will improve as the system gets farther west. The discussion also indicated that the models that the NHC relies on are showing significant strengthening.

yeah I have been mentioning it for a couple days now. only problem was that the circ may not survive but it is doing quite well..

Aric:
Really; for a couple of days now?
"I mentioned it before so Just keep waiting.. another 15 to 24 hours and we will have gaston back..."
This is what you said at 2 AM Sunday morning.
NOBODY has predicted accurately what "Remnant Low Gaston" would do in 1,2 or 3 days, let alone 15-24 hours.
This one has defied the experts.