ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1281 Postby clfenwi » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:19 am

Latest thoughts from Jeff Masters

Dry air will continue to be the major impediment to development for Gaston, and the system is unlikely to become a tropical depression today. However, wind shear, which is currently a moderate 10 knots, if forecast by the latest SHIPS model run to fall very low, 0 - 5 knots, tonight through Wednesday. With almost no wind shear affecting it, Gaston will a better chance of keeping the moisture from its heavy thunderstorms near it core on Tuesday. This will insulate the storm from the dry air surrounding it. The atmosphere is also moister in the eastern Caribbean, further increasing the chances of development. I believe it is probable Gaston will become a tropical depression again on Tuesday. NHC is currently giving Gaston a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast. The models don't give much support for Gaston surviving past Wednesday, since many of them have the storm hitting the rugged island of Hispaniola, disrupting the storm.

Heavy rain showers and gusty winds from the storm will affect Puerto Rico Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. This activity will spread to the Dominican Republic Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Assuming dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola's high mountains do not destroy Gaston, heavy rain from the storm should move over Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Jamaica Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Though none of the global dynamical computer models are showing this, should Gaston survive the dry air and its coming encounter with Hispaniola, the storm will find itself in a very favorable environment for development in the Western Caribbean late in the week, and could intensify into a hurricane by next weekend.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1282 Postby boca » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:21 am

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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1283 Postby Javlin » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:23 am

He is definitily trying to sneak in under the radar isn't he?
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#1284 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:29 am

Ex-Gaston doesn't like all of the attention that Hermine is getting, so I think he might make some progress today.
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#1285 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:33 am

I must say it looks like gaston may finally be making a comeback...Not so sure it doesnt pull up just north of the islands...looking much better on the vis.



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1286 Postby Frank2 » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:39 am

I've been waiting to say this all weekend (lol)...

Looks like Gaston is out of gas...

LOL

P.S. I'd have to agree with Jeff Masters - if the dry air doesn't get it, the moutains will - or that ongoing TUTT feature...
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1287 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:39 am

Frank2 wrote:I've been waiting to say this all weekend (lol)...

Looks like Gaston is out of gas...

LOL

P.S. I'd have to agree with Jeff Masters - if the dry air doesn't get it, the moutains will - or that ongoing TUTT feature...


Well you're certainly alone in that sentiment.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1288 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:47 am

Maybe I'm seeing things but it sure does look like the LLC is moving WNW. If WNW is happening it's going to be difficult to miss PR & Hispaniola IMO.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1289 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:50 am

Image

Frank2 wrote:I've been waiting to say this all weekend (lol)...

Looks like Gaston is out of gas...

LOL

P.S. I'd have to agree with Jeff Masters - if the dry air doesn't get it, the moutains will - or that ongoing TUTT feature...

You think this is outta gas already? Hes still firing which makes him still a player to develop.
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#1290 Postby Hurricane » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:54 am

Everyone needs to watch this! We have a system that has a 70% chance of developing, heading straight for the GULF! Gaston WILL be back.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1291 Postby bvigal » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:56 am

Frank2 wrote:I've been waiting to say this all weekend (lol)...

Looks like Gaston is out of gas...

LOL

P.S. I'd have to agree with Jeff Masters - if the dry air doesn't get it, the moutains will - or that ongoing TUTT feature...
Hi Frank!
I have to agree that it's rather a stretch for the mainland to be much worried about this right now. But for us here in islands, it can get us before "the mountains" 200 miles to our west, get it. For sure nothing very strong, but since we are still in 'cleanup' mode and our usual drainage systems are clogged with debris, we really don't want any gusty winds or heavy rains right now. ;-)
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1292 Postby Frank2 » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:58 am

Yesterday the NHC perhaps got ahead of themselves and at 2 p.m. said that warnings might need to be issued if redevelopment occured at any time, then backed off in the next TWO and said that it was determined that dry air was inhibiting development and that formation was still possible in the next 48 hours...

It's easy to panic when a swirl suddenly forms a few thunderstorms but the old thinking was to wait at least one forecast cycle to see how things panned out - SIGMETS are always the option if thunderstorms increase between the TWO's, but in my mind what was said at 2 p.m. and then retracted at 8 p.m. only caused undue anxiety for the folks in the islands since it was obvious that whatever was out there was still very weak even with the developing thunderstorms...

Just my opinion, but perhaps there's too much information being pushed down the information pipeline, and that only confuses the public, especially if the information becomes inconsistent...

The public isn't like most people who are on this board and know the weather at every turn, and it's safe to say that the public is often easily confused if too much or conflicting information is given, and is why the old "wait one cycle" thinking worked better for a weak or marginal system like this one, in my honest opinion...

Frank
Last edited by Frank2 on Mon Sep 06, 2010 12:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1293 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 06, 2010 12:01 pm

1645Z per vis..continued improvements and convection now firing right over center...appears to be moving just N of W...seems possible it could just miss islands to the north...





http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1294 Postby chrisnnavarre » Mon Sep 06, 2010 12:01 pm

Blown Away wrote:Maybe I'm seeing things but it sure does look like the LLC is moving WNW. If WNW is happening it's going to be difficult to miss PR & Hispaniola IMO.


On Atlantic wide view visual satellite...with the LAT/LONG feature on it looks like he's heading due west and may remain just south of PR/Hispaniola. We can only hope he goes further north, because anything rapidly developing and approaching Jamaica will perk everyone's little ears up in my neck of the words. That's Ivan track country, and I don't even want to think about that again.

:roll:
Last edited by chrisnnavarre on Mon Sep 06, 2010 12:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1295 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 06, 2010 12:02 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1296 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 06, 2010 12:02 pm

Vortex wrote:1645Z per vis..continued improvements and convection now firing right over center...appears to be moving just N of W...seems possible it could just miss islands to the north...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1


Would be nice to get some official confirmation of what we see as N of W movement.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1297 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 06, 2010 12:03 pm

Frank2 wrote:I've been waiting to say this all weekend (lol)...

Looks like Gaston is out of gas...

LOL

P.S. I'd have to agree with Jeff Masters - if the dry air doesn't get it, the moutains will - or that ongoing TUTT feature...



But Jeff Masters also mentioned that if it survives the dry air and is south of the mountainous land, that the conditions in the westen carib are very good, and that it could become a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1298 Postby chrisnnavarre » Mon Sep 06, 2010 12:06 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Vortex wrote:1645Z per vis..continued improvements and convection now firing right over center...appears to be moving just N of W...seems possible it could just miss islands to the north...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1


Would be nice to get some official confirmation of what we see as N of W movement.


Anyone have any idea of what recon is reporting? I saw data being posted in that tread earlier.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1299 Postby Frank2 » Mon Sep 06, 2010 12:07 pm

But Jeff Masters also mentioned that if it survives the dry air and is south of the mountainous land, that the conditions in the westen carib are very good, and that it could become a hurricane.


Yes he did, so time will tell, but couldn't resist the "Gaston is out of gas" comment (lol), since it is very weak, even with the diurnal thunderstorm development that keeps tricking everyone to believe it's about to take off when it's just taxiing...
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1300 Postby johngaltfla » Mon Sep 06, 2010 12:08 pm

Javlin wrote:He is definitily trying to sneak in under the radar isn't he?


I just wonder what will happen if it holds together once it pasts the Eastern islands. The conditions do seem conducive to some rapid development but this has been another weird season.
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