ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[abajan]

... SHIPS goes to 115 knots in 24 hours. LGEM goes a step further to 135 knots in 120 hours ...

That’s bordering on Cat5!

[supercane]

Latest ASCAT still shows a low with winds peaking at around 20kt mostly N and NE of the center:

Navy still keeps a TCFA over it.

[clfenwi]

Anyone have any idea of what recon is reporting? I saw data being posted in that tread earlier.

Plane hasn't quite arrived on the scene yet. Another 20-30 minutes to go before it's collecting relevant data.

[ConvergenceZone]

But Jeff Masters also mentioned that if it survives the dry air and is south of the mountainous land, that the conditions in the westen carib are very good, and that it could become a hurricane.

Yes he did, so time will tell, but couldn't resist the "Gaston is out of gas" comment (lol), since it is very weak, even with the diurnal thunderstorm development that keeps tricking everyone to believe it's about to take off when it's just taxiing...

I hear ya Frank. This thing has been a depression 2 other times right?. So it's like the boy that cried wolf. I keep asking myself, "well if they upgrade it, are they going to downgrade it again 24 hours later"?.....

[Frank2]

I hear ya Frank. This thing has been a depression 2 other times right?. So it's like the boy that cried wolf. I keep asking myself, "well if they upgrade it, are they going to downgrade it again 24 hours later"?.....

That's right - it even tricked the NHC yesterday at this time...

P.S. Hi bvigal - hope everything is getting back to normal down there!

[Vortex]

1715utc..more impressive with every image..id imagine very near td..as long as there is an llc at the surface i think we'll get the updrade at 5pm and watches/warning seem likely...





http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[Florida1118]

1715utc..more impressive with every image..id imagine very near td..as long as there is an llc at the surface i think we'll get the updrade at 5pm and watches/warning seem likely...

Im not even going to play the "upgrade/no upgrade" game. He looks decent now for a possiblt TD, but hes lost what hes started nearly everytime.

[Frank2]

Right, and it's probably going through a diurnal cycle - sure there'a a small swirl but it's headed due west towards the larger islands, so really it's going to be hard pressed to do much...

We'll see what the 2 p.m. TWO says...

[Florida1118]

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANT LOW OF GASTON...LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND INTERESTS IN
THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

[Vortex]

I hear you florida

[Aric Dunn]

this is best convective pattern i have seen with it in a couple days and the low level clouds in all quadrants (close to the center ) continue to thicken which is a sign things could be getting closer. the environment is slowly improving and we should see this continue.

[Blown Away]

17.7N / 57.1W?? Convection building very close to the LLC.

[Vortex]

1745z vis image...organization continues, convection firing over center and the streamers in all quads are increasing..





http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[ConvergenceZone]

Right, and it's probably going through a diurnal cycle - sure there'a a small swirl but it's headed due west towards the larger islands, so really it's going to be hard pressed to do much...

We'll see what the 2 p.m. TWO says...

Isn't he at least a couple of days or more away from the larger island? I would think he would have plenty of time to get going. Of course the stronger he gets
the less of an impact the mainland will have on him.

[blp]

[quote="Vortex"]1745z vis image...organization continues, convection firing over center and the streamers in all quads are increasing.. [quote]

It does look more impressive Vortex. It also has convection on the east side which it has not had for several days. An indication the easterly shear is relaxing a bit. As per the GFS this has 24 hours before it opens up. It is looking less likely that will happen.

[dwsqos2]

Extrapolated pressures were only on the order of 1012 mb. I still think the globals have the best handle on the situation.

[Vortex]

Im not so sure the center is moving due W...It does appear move wnw on the loop....






http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[CrazyC83]

I wouldn't upgrade it yet. It has an LLC and TS winds but not a great deal of convection. However, once it gets convection, it needs to be upgraded as TS warnings would be needed.

[emeraldislencguy]

does anyone think it will be upgraded at 5 or 11
would love to hear some opinions

[Gustywind]