ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

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Re: Re:

#381 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 06, 2010 1:56 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:well its a little left of the track so it probably wont make it to the 11pm advisory before landfall.. unless it starts wobbling more N than NNW


It's a lot more west of the track.

First of all, the intermediate advisory located the center too far to the east. Second...the movement is closer to 310 instead of 335.

As I mentioned a couple of pages back...I think this goes at least 70 miles south of the border...probably closer to 100...well south of the current NHC track. It would have to move at 350 to make the NHC track and its just not going to do that. The 12Z 500mb showed a small ridge located north of Hermine...over central TX. It's not going through that ridge. There isn't enough time for this to get strong enough to get steered by the upper levels...and gain more latitude.


yeah I posted somewhere not too long ago that I calculated more NW than NNW after plotting on GR. its pretty clear its off track.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

#382 Postby loon » Mon Sep 06, 2010 2:20 pm

A heavy line is moving through downtown right now, raining pretty hard, windy and lightning.

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#383 Postby Tstormwatcher » Mon Sep 06, 2010 2:22 pm

Wow, thats pretty intense rain.
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#384 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 06, 2010 2:22 pm

Looks like 50 knots is a good estimate
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#385 Postby funster » Mon Sep 06, 2010 2:23 pm

Hopefully too far west of Houston for any Allison type of situation. It does seem like a very wet system.
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#386 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 06, 2010 2:24 pm

Recon was right on the money with the 1 pm advisory there. 50 kt seems right given the SFMR.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

#387 Postby jasons2k » Mon Sep 06, 2010 2:26 pm

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

#388 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Sep 06, 2010 2:39 pm

Galveston, Harris and Waller Counties have been added to the Flood Watch from HGX.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

#389 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Sep 06, 2010 2:39 pm

is there a bit of a north wobble right now?
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#390 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Sep 06, 2010 2:40 pm

We are getting pounded in Humble
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

#391 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 06, 2010 2:41 pm

getting pretty close in organization... the winds are not quite there yet to be a hurricane but it still has a good 8 to 10 hours..

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

#392 Postby masaji79 » Mon Sep 06, 2010 2:43 pm

Is that an eye appearing on radar or just a dry slot of air?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

#393 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 06, 2010 2:45 pm

masaji79 wrote:Is that an eye appearing on radar or just a dry slot of air?


yeah I have been watching it for a few hours organize. that is the a developing eyewall.
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Re:

#394 Postby Houstonia » Mon Sep 06, 2010 2:49 pm

Tireman4 wrote:We are getting pounded in Humble


nasty batch of storms in southwest Houston...
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#395 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 06, 2010 2:49 pm

There was a 62 kt (and flagged 64 kt) SFMR reading, but they were in very heavy rain so I wouldn't count them right now.
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#396 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 06, 2010 2:50 pm

If Hermine continues to organize toward landfall, it will be interesting to watch to see if the structure stays intact across NE Mexico and South and Central TX.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

#397 Postby supercane » Mon Sep 06, 2010 2:54 pm

masaji79 wrote:Is that an eye appearing on radar or just a dry slot of air?

Maybe, but no mention of a developing eyewall on the VDM. On radar it looks like one of the feeder bands on the SW combined with thunderstorms on the NE quadrant.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

#398 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Sep 06, 2010 2:57 pm

does anyone else see a more recent northerly movement on the radar? or maybe ive just been looking at it too long...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

#399 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 06, 2010 3:01 pm

supercane wrote:
masaji79 wrote:Is that an eye appearing on radar or just a dry slot of air?

Maybe, but no mention of a developing eyewall on the VDM. On radar it looks like one of the feeder bands on the SW combined with thunderstorms on the NE quadrant.


its still in the early stages..
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

#400 Postby lester » Mon Sep 06, 2010 3:05 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:does anyone else see a more recent northerly movement on the radar? or maybe ive just been looking at it too long...


Looks to be moving nw to me

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