ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Showers not so far from the Leewards islands...

[Vortex]

I think the nhc would rather wait to see if the convection persists/increases but given the close proximity I wouldn't be surprised with the upgrade...I'll go with 11pm

[Aric Dunn]

yeah they will wait.. there are some signs its organizing now with some more banding rather than popcorn convection. its needs to do something in the next 24 hours before it interacts with land. or it needs to go north or south of the PR and Hispaniola.

convection is still minimal though.

[Vortex]

Aric, it sure seems to be heading closer to 280...what do you think?

[Weatherfreak000]

yeah they will wait.. there are some signs its organizing now with some more banding rather than popcorn convection. its needs to do something in the next 24 hours before it interacts with land. or it needs to go north or south of the PR and Hispaniola.

They don't necessarily always need to wait. The NHC can be somewhat confounding on this issue. Typically I like to just read the wording. The NHC Met mentioned the environment is going to be more conducive for strengthening, and that appears to be the case to me as well. I believe he may have already made his choice to go N of PR as well. Motion seems to be somewhat WNW.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, it sure seems to be heading closer to 280...what do you think?

I have been plotting and see nearly exactly straight west. 265 or 270

[Aric Dunn]

there is no reason this should go north of the islands.. unless it some how intensified significantly then it might be able to move 280. but west is likely but wsw is possible..

[Dean4Storms]

So strange, on the one hand you have the intensity models going nuts with this and the GFDL making a Cat. 3 in the western Carib. and on the other hand not one Global model is doing anything with it, not even the Canadian which usually turns every fart into a disaster movie!!

I wonder how much the ULL is playing into the Global models or if it is the dry phase of the MJO, I have no idea.

[Vortex]

I have to imagine that given how small gaston is attm this may be playing a facor into "slipping under the radar"

[Bailey1777]

what is recon finding?

[artist]

what is recon finding?

not alot.

[Aric Dunn]

I have to imagine that given how small gaston is attm this may be playing a facor into "slipping under the radar"

yeah its small size does have a affect. but I never look at the GFS for intensity..

[Dean4Storms]

I have to imagine that given how small gaston is attm this may be playing a facor into "slipping under the radar"

That could be also, the pressure is not all that significant with it and it is very small caught up in alot of dry air. The models could be giving up on it combining that with the fact it does not have a UL high situation directly over it.

[Aric Dunn]

what is recon finding?

Depression at best.I think I saw a sfmr at maybe mid 30's. but the convection is just not there for an upgrade but you never know they may do it just because.

[x-y-no]

what is recon finding?

Depression at best.I think I saw a sfmr at maybe mid 30's. but the convection is just not there for an upgrade but you never know they may do it just because.

I think all the 30+ knot SFMR readings were flagged. There have been a number of 32 and 33 knot flight level readings ... that would marginally support TD. But given this system's history, I'd wait at least until 11 before upgrading.

[clfenwi]

what is recon finding?

Extrapolated pressure ~ 1011 mb. Top flight level wind around 33 knots (~30 mph surface). SFMR has been on the fritz. Like the others said, nothing much.

[supercane]

I think the lack of a vortex data message says it all. The recon finding of 30kt winds via SFMR was already suspected by the ASCAT pass from earlier, so it does not provide much new information. The satellite appearance continues to wax and wane with T numbers 1.5 to 2.0. The somewhat surprising thing to me is the difficulty recon is having to close off a well-defined center, especially when you look at the flight through the SW quadrant.

[HurricaneQueen]

"HEAVY SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM."

Given the above and the fact that there are traditionally many tourists on the islands over Labor Day, would it not be prudent to post some sort of warning for the N. Leewards? Granted, the tourist bureau isn't fond of unduly upsetting the tourist trade but on the other hand, I would hate to see some folks get a big surprise after being out celebrating later tonight.

I feel certain most of the islanders are well aware of what is happening on their doorsteps.

Lynn

[artist]

"HEAVY SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM."

Given the above and the fact that there are traditionally many tourists on the islands over Labor Day, would it not be prudent to post some sort of warning for the N. Leewards? Granted, the tourist bureau isn't fond of unduly upsetting the tourist trade but on the other hand, I would hate to see some folks get a big surprise after being out celebrating later tonight.

I feel certain most of the islanders are well aware of what is happening on their doorsteps.

Lynn

I see your concern, and understand it, but as of now there just isn't much being found with Gaston from recon to really warrant it yet, in my opinion.

[fci]

"HEAVY SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM."

Given the above and the fact that there are traditionally many tourists on the islands over Labor Day, would it not be prudent to post some sort of warning for the N. Leewards? Granted, the tourist bureau isn't fond of unduly upsetting the tourist trade but on the other hand, I would hate to see some folks get a big surprise after being out celebrating later tonight.

I feel certain most of the islanders are well aware of what is happening on their doorsteps.

Lynn

I don't think a Tropical Storm Warning holds much importance. Heavy showers and winds to 40-50 are not a real big deal. When we get to Hurricane Watch or Warning it is a whole new game but TS warnings, to me; are pretty meaningless