ATL: GASTON - Models

[Macrocane]

I may be wrong but, is the Euro now on board with teh re-generation of Gaston? It has a TD near Cuba in 240 hour.

[cycloneye]

Yes,there it is.

[perk]

Yes,there it is.

Good catch the euro's back on board.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Thats 10 days....LOL

No way that Gaston ....

[x-y-no]

Huh ... I don't think I buy it taking 10 days to get to the western tip of Cuba. That's awfully slow.

[StarmanHDB]

What role is the ULL currently situated between Haiti and the eastern tip of Cuba going to play in whatever will become of ex Gaston?

[perk]

The 12Z GFS still shows nothing.

[ColinDelia]

18z SHIPS is now analyzing less than 10 knots of shear and keeps it below 10 knots for the next 5 days.

[Vortex]

18Z NAM at H+42 over PR




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042l.gif

[Nimbus]

The deep steering runs across the islands and the shallow steering would keep Gaston further south over water. I could see Gaston staying weak passing just south of Puerto Rico. Climatology would say he might not spin up till Jamaica but shear is forecast to be low so he might catch the southern side of Haiti. Its a dangerous track to have to forecast, so we need to be sympathetic to the pro mets who will be under the gun.

[Vortex]

after rolling over pr looks to roll over dr...this guy can't catch a break....



H+48



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

[ROCK]

EURO brings in something behind Gaston at 240hr....You can follow Gaston all the way through the carib into Belize...

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

[ColinDelia]

EURO brings in something behind Gaston at 240hrl

That's PGI42L
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109278

GFS develops it also

[caneseddy]

18Z GFS starting to roll.....

Seems to have good initialization; let's see if any changes to previous runs

12 hrs: crossing the Leeward Islands between Antigua and Guadalupe very weak
18 hrs: entering the Caribbean
24 hrs: GFS loses it
30 hrs: GFS picks it up again south of PR
36 hrs: moving a bit south of west in the Caribbean
42 hrs: GFS loses it again
48 hrs: Nothing

Looks like GFS loses it at 42 hrs

[AJC3]

EURO brings in something behind Gaston at 240hrl

That's PGI42L
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109278

GFS develops it also

It's definitely not Gaston, and it's not PGI42L, nor is it ex-99L either. The Euro moves the low that it initializes near 20N 27W westward to around 45W through H96 and dampens it out. Meanwhile, it starts to spin up something in situ over the islands near 15N 60W at around H96 and pushes it westward to 15N 70W at H156, over Jamaica at H192, just south of the Isle of Youth at H216, and then over the extreme western tip of Cuba at H240

[Comanche]

EURO brings in something behind Gaston at 240hrl

That's PGI42L
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109278

GFS develops it also

It's definitely not Gaston, and it's not PGI42L, nor is it ex-99L either. The Euro moves the low that it initializes near 20N 27W westward to around 45W through H96 and dampens it out. Meanwhile, it starts to spin up something in situ over the islands near 15N 60W at around H96 and pushes it westward to 15N 70W at H156, over Jamaica at H192, just south of the Isle of Youth at H216, and then over the extreme western tip of Cuba at H240

And here's to me, toasting that this is nothing but a phantom run of the euro.............here here!

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

SHIP continues to bomb it in the Western Caribbean.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 070042
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0042 UTC TUE SEP 7 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE GASTON (AL092010) 20100907 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100907  0000   100907  1200   100908  0000   100908  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.5N  59.0W   17.6N  61.8W   17.9N  64.4W   18.0N  66.6W
BAMD    17.5N  59.0W   17.7N  61.8W   18.0N  64.3W   18.4N  66.4W
BAMM    17.5N  59.0W   17.3N  61.9W   17.4N  64.6W   17.5N  66.9W
LBAR    17.5N  59.0W   17.8N  62.2W   18.1N  65.3W   18.5N  68.1W
SHIP        30KTS          33KTS          40KTS          49KTS
DSHP        30KTS          33KTS          40KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100909  0000   100910  0000   100911  0000   100912  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.3N  68.4W   18.5N  71.4W   19.1N  74.5W   19.9N  78.3W
BAMD    18.7N  68.0W   19.0N  70.2W   19.3N  72.8W   19.8N  76.4W
BAMM    17.7N  68.8W   18.0N  71.7W   18.5N  74.8W   19.1N  78.8W
LBAR    18.8N  70.5W   19.3N  74.2W   19.8N  77.1W   19.9N  80.1W
SHIP        60KTS          76KTS          89KTS         108KTS
DSHP        60KTS          58KTS          63KTS          82KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.5N LONCUR =  59.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
LATM12 =  17.4N LONM12 =  55.5W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  17.1N LONM24 =  52.6W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  170NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[ROCK]

every year we see something that totally baffles us....you have the SHIPS and LGEM blowing this up and GFDL to a cat 1.....but you see nothing from the globals....

SHIPS blows it up to a high end CAT 3

[ROCK]

didnt see the mighty NOGAPS posted from 12z....

Gaston over the Isle of Youth...

[ROCK]

0z GFS rolling....has it at 24hr but loses it at 48hr....goes under the islands...