ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

does anyone else see a more recent northerly movement on the radar? or maybe ive just been looking at it too long...

well radar can be misleading. I am still plotting position estimates and from recon there is slight wobble. but over all motion is still more NW then NNW. more time is needed if it is more of short term motion or a wobble.

[bohaiboy]

Not sure if related, bu we had a band of strong TS move thru hereSpring TX just N of H Town). My Davis gauge indicated 5.76" rain per hr.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at radar from the first pass to the one coming up. I imagine pressure has fallen some.

[jasons2k]

[MGC]

Hermine is developing an excellent radar presentation with banding evident and an very evident eye forming. The storm should make hurricane intensity prior to landfall....also looks to be moving a bit more to the north......MGC

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at radar from the first pass to the one coming up. I imagine pressure has fallen some.

recon found about 992mb. down from 995. also it has moved little since the last pass mostly because of the convection rotating around. should soon start moving NNW again.

[Buck]

Very impressive radar presentation. Reminds me of her older cousins Humberto and Lorenzo.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/06/10 1946Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1930Z KUSSELSON
.
LOCATION...S TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...TS HERMINE RAINFALL...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VIS SATELLITE IMAGE AT 1745Z PUTTING
CENTER OF HERMINE NEAR 24N/96.7W AT 1745Z AND VIS THRU 1930Z MATCHING
RADAR CENTER CLOSE TO 24.2N/96.7W. IN ANY CASE SIGNIFICANT RAINS FROM
INNER CORE OF HERMINE STILL ABOUT 117 MILES FROM BROWNSVILLE. MOST
SIGNIFICANT OUTER BANDS ON NW SIDE FOR THE TIME WILL GO INTO NE MEXICO
SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. ONLY A WEAK NARROW BAND HEADING NORTH TO AFFECT S
TEXAS AND NEAR THE COAST AND JUST INLAND OVER THE NEXT 3HRS. SATELLITE
6HR RAIN ESTIMATE MAX THRU 1915Z WAS CLOSE TO 7" NEAR 23.8N/96.2W...SEE
ESTIMATE GRAPHIC ON HOME PAGE SHORTLY AT ADDRESS BELOW...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEND MESSAGES EVERY 3HRS WHILE HERMANE
HEADS TOWARD NE MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS.

[CrazyC83]

As for the intensity, I would keep it at 50 kt for now. The FL winds aren't that strong but there have been SFMR as high as 62 kt (but that was in a strong rainband so likely an overestimate).

[supercane]

Latest VDM:
000
URNT12 KNHC 062033
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102010
A. 06/20:24:10Z
B. 24 deg 26 min N
096 deg 53 min W
C. 850 mb 1358 m
D. 45 kt
E. 129 deg 30 nm
F. 179 deg 49 kt
G. 129 deg 37 nm
H. EXTRAP 992 mb
I. 17 C / 1528 m
J. 21 C / 1527 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF301 0210A HERMINE OB 08
MAX FL WIND 49 KT SE QUAD 20:11:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
;

[Aric Dunn]

Hermine is developing an excellent radar presentation with banding evident and an very evident eye forming. The storm should make hurricane intensity prior to landfall....also looks to be moving a bit more to the north......MGC

yeah Banding is becoming very well pronounced in all quads. the pressure will likely be pretty low for a hurricane. but given its rate of organization once the inner core becomes well defined it should strengthen pretty fast.

[Aric Dunn]

ok yeah I read the position wrong from recon.. it has moved from the previous position.. took a jog to NNW

[Buck]

5pm has 60mph and 992mb.

[supercane]

00
WTNT35 KNHC 062037
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

...HERMINE NEARING THE COAST...SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 97.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 24.5N 97.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 26.2N 98.3W 55 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 07/1800Z 28.5N 99.6W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 08/0600Z 30.7N 100.4W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/1800Z 33.0N 100.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 09/1800Z 38.0N 98.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[CrazyC83]

It seems this is a pretty shallow storm with not much wind at the mid-levels. The SFMR has been consistently well above the flight-level winds.

[Aric Dunn]

every frame of radar pointing at this making a run for hurricane very rapidly if the inner core can get going very soon. and it definately seems to wobbling closer to N than NNW now probably wont last but it does bring it ever so closer to brownsville..

[lester]

Center tightening up on radar. Definitely making a run before landfall

[South Texas Storms]

agree. it will be close to hurricane strength at landfall imo. also looks to be back on the NNW motion.

[vbhoutex]

every frame of radar pointing at this making a run for hurricane very rapidly if the inner core can get going very soon. and it definately seems to wobbling closer to N than NNW now probably wont last but it does bring it ever so closer to brownsville..

I've looked at a few different radars and I have to agree with you Aric. I am beginning to think that Hermine may come in just South of or possibly right over Brownsville. That is based only on radar I have looked at and nothing else. I also agree that the core is trying to consolidate more, but I am not sure it is going to make it to a really solid core. Hermine has gone a good deal further development wise than I originally thought she would so we shall see. Recon is in right now so we will know for sure soon enough. Glad they were able to task another plane quickly.

[Aric Dunn]

every frame of radar pointing at this making a run for hurricane very rapidly if the inner core can get going very soon. and it definately seems to wobbling closer to N than NNW now probably wont last but it does bring it ever so closer to brownsville..

I've looked at a few different radars and I have to agree with you Aric. I am beginning to think that Hermine may come in just South of or possibly right over Brownsville. That is based only on radar I have looked at and nothing else. I also agree that the core is trying to consolidate more, but I am not sure it is going to make it to a really solid core. Hermine has gone a good deal further development wise than I originally thought she would so we shall see. Recon is in right now so we will know for sure soon enough. Glad they were able to task another plane quickly.

yeah they really needed to get another plane out. yeah it does not have enough to time to become anymore than a minimal hurricane at best but its angle of approach could keep its intensity a little longer than normal since most of the circ will be over water as it passes brownsville. so if it becomes a hurricane brownsville could experience some of the strongest winds.