WTPQ50 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1009 MALOU (1009)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 32.7N 127.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 071200UTC 34.9N 129.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 081200UTC 36.9N 135.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 091200UTC 37.0N 143.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE E 16KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 101200UTC 38.3N 152.7E 280NM 70%
MOVE E 18KT
120HF 111200UTC 41.2N 163.3E 375NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT =
WTPN33 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 32.9N 127.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.9N 127.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 34.6N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 35.8N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 36.5N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 36.8N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 37.1N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 33.3N 127.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND
071500Z.//
NNNN
WDPN33 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 061025Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS THE DEEPER CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AND A RJTD
RADAR FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, AS WELL AS 35
KNOT WIND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ON CHEJU ISLAND (40 NM TO THE NORTHEAST) HAVE BEEN
INDICATING 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED INTO THE WESTERLIES AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW HAS DECREASED.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY. HOWEVER, THIS FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTER TO THE RIGHT
WITH A FASTER RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
B. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH
OF CHEJU ISLAND AND IS NOW TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STEERING RIDGE. TS MALOU IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH WITHIN
12 HOURS. BY TAU 24, TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY ABSORBED
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR GFDN AND NOGAPS WHICH
TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS WITHIN THE TIGHT PACKING OF GFS, JGSM,
ECMWF, EGRR, AND WBAR, WHICH RECURVE TS 10W INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. //
NNNN
TXPN25 KNES 061601
SIMWIR
A. 10W (MALOU)
B. 06/1501Z
C. 33.2N
D. 127.6E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/AMSU
H. REMARKS...LLC IS SHEARED SW OF CONVECTION AND POSITION INFLUENCED
BY MI DATA. DT=3.5 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN. MET=4.0 BUT PAT=3.5 FT BASED
ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
06/1226Z 33.0N 126.6E AMSU
...SWANSON
=