ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Steve]

Thanks TC.
---------------
I don't have a feel one way or the other. The remnants are something we will all be watching anyway be it a wave, td or whatever. A variety of possible US implications are there if something spins back up. Ex-Gaston has ridden more of a track you pay attention to if you live in the SE. Whether anything else comes out of it or not remains to be seen.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like a patience issue has arisen with this system as well. Happened with the same system that became Katrina. Not everything will turn into a hurricane in 24 hours.

I am actually more concerned with these type systems that traverse the ATL "under the Radar" and miss the weakness in the Atlantic. We have a nice looking system with evidence of a LLC producing its own convection. It is September and once this reaches the Western Caribbean/Bahamas region, the potential is tremendous.

While what you saying is inherently correct, this is not a situation where people grew bored because "Remnant Low Gaston" did not become a hurricane in 24 hours. It has been days now, since Thursday; that this system was declassified and the posts and conjecture since then have been non-stop with talk of regineration into a Hurricane or at least a Tropical Storm or Tropical Depression.

I can't fault people for being weary of it.
And, YES; any system this time of year has the potential to be another Katrina or Andrew that came back from the "dead" to be historic.
However, there are probably hundreds that didn't.......

I agree. I mean this has bounced from 60-80% for...what 3-4 days? Theres been at least twise when "Could develop into a TD at anytime" and we all think its gonna get it...but then it dies and its back down to "conditions appear favorable for slow development" and I wish it would do 1 or the other. I do believe still he will regenerate but its staring to look like a 98L again

The NHC keeping it code red for 3 days should be telling. FCI, if you look around at some of the METS opinions, they have a high chance of this being reclassified, so this is not your average 10% wave that might develop down the line.

[Gustywind]

I didn't mean to cause a stir about (please note the wording) "some sort of warning". A tropical storm warning may be overdoing it but I do subscribe to the idea of a special tropical weather statement issued as BatzVI suggested. This would be broadcast on the local radio stations so people are not caught unaware of potential tropical storm force gusts and locally heavy downpours, especially at night.

fci, I, too, am in Florida and would see such a "warning" as overkill here in this case but the islands are subject to flooding, mud and rock slides particularly after loosing much of their vegetation to Earl. Also, there are people visiting from all over the world who have never felt such gusts and might be unaware of the oftentimes dark roads underwater until its too late. It doesn't hurt to be cautious and at least let people who are often out to all hours of the night be aware that all may not be perfect in paradise tonight and tomorrow.

Of course, this is all a moot point since the decision is up to the government of the various islands. Enough said.

Lynn
P.S to all our friends who may have some sort of impact from "Gaston", please be safe down there in the Caribbean.

Thanks

[cycloneye]

That was a good ascat pass, but at 9:02am EDT, when we could see the circulation on visible sat, about 6hrs before the recon was there.

Warnings and watches issued by NWS/NHC have closely-defined meanings, often written in the text of the product. Any type of warning means possibly hazardous conditions are expected within a certain time period.
Tropical storms can have winds up to 73mph, and gusts much higher. High enough for a flying piece of debris to injure you badly, or kill you. There is also a type of WARNING issued for thunderstorms with high wind gusts, heavy rain, reduced visibility, frequent lightning, it's called a THUNDERSTORM WARNING.

I'm not saying I think they should begin TD advisories on Gaston, if he doesn't meet the requirements. It really looks like the LLC is gone. I would have waited a bit longer to cancel him in the first place, because I've seen systems that lost nearly all convection and had a few more advisories before being dropped. I think the decision was more based upon the demands of Earl and other systems. But that's water under the bridge, with no bearing on the current status of Gaston. In the past 2 days, I'm confident that NHC has kept a very close eye on this system and would have upgraded it, if conditions warranted.

And lastly... 11years in the tropics I've often marveled at how gentle the weather is here, compared to the storms that roar through tornado alley, where I grew up. We do have thunderstorms, but they are usually not violent, and a wind gust over 40kt is REALLY AN EVENT, and if unexpected, often causes injuries to boaters. There are outdoor restaurants, bars, porch furniture, little roadside shacks selling fresh tropical fruit, sailboats on moorings, whalers tied to mangroves, and dingys pulled up on beaches. This is our charm, this is why people love it and come to relax.

Our rains are usually gentle, too, and don't last very long. When we get tropical-system rain, it falls in such density, and lasts longer, it can't drain into the sea fast enough, and flooding occurs. Along our roads, big rocks the size of your car come down, along with mud and smaller rocks. On the hillsides, sometimes the rock/mud slides just race right through homes. When a system isn't organized enough to have advisories from NHC, the local Met services will issue watches and warnings for all hazards - hopefully local residents pay attention.

Well said. Maybe the chapter is not closed yet down the road but at least weather like when a passing tropical wave occurs is what we will get in the NE Caribbean.You talked about the BVI, but here, flooding events occur many times and that is the part I am worried about.

[KWT]

The fact mosr models still don't show anything and the fact this one has struggled for days now to get past this stage is really telling IMO...

Now thats not to say it can't develop down the line again, indeed I suspect it probably will in the W.Caribbean as it gets close to the Yucatan....if there is a part of the basin that can kick these sorts of waves into life its that part of the basin....but its clearly still struggling to keep things going and thats not going to change in the short term at least.

By the way whilst it may loose a little latitude I'd be very surprised if it drops as far as some models expect, the GFDL gets this down to something close to 15N...and the models tried the same trick a few days ago between 50-60W and it didn't come off...though I suspect there will be some latitude loss, just not as much as some models expect.

[CourierPR]

The fact mosr models still don't show anything and the fact this one has struggled for days now to get past this stage is really telling IMO...

Now thats not to say it can't develop down the line again, indeed I suspect it probably will in the W.Caribbean as it gets close to the Yucatan....if there is a part of the basin that can kick these sorts of waves into life its that part of the basin....but its clearly still struggling to keep things going and thats not going to change in the short term at least.

By the way whilst it may loose a little latitude I'd be very surprised if it drops as far as some models expect, the GFDL gets this down to something close to 15N...and the models tried the same trick a few days ago between 50-60W and it didn't come off...though I suspect there will be some latitude loss, just not as much as some models expect.

The fact that the NHC is keeping the chance of development high is very telling IMO. As of this morning their "go to" models were showing significant development in the days to come.

[KWT]

Didn't the NHC also keep 93L though as a code red for like 4-5 days solid before it finally reached even worse conditions...and that was in a similar set-up, though shear was higher with that system, broadly it was in a similar airmass to this one.

The system just can't hold the convection for long enough and the general instablity isn't high enough yet...

I'd still suspect this one finds better conditions down the line and I wouldn't rule out a TD before then but anything more then that is pretty unlikely until the background conditions change...

[fasterdisaster]

Convection is dying once again. What a zombie of a system.

[gone2beach]

Are the last 3 frames of this loop telling?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

[KWT]

Yeah convection is weakening though thats to be expected given we are just in Dmin right now, but I think ther eis clearly something preventing this system from holding its convection for any amount of time, I can't remember many times where there hasn't been some sort of outflow boundary being spat out by this system and thats not generally a great sign for development.

Still its wave that will likely be in the W.cAribbean/Gulf...IF this had never been Gaston and was just an invest now...we'd be watching this like a hawk even without any real major model support...and to be fair thats how we should be looking at this one.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah convection is weakening though thats to be expected given we are just in Dmin right now, but I think ther eis clearly something preventing this system from holding its convection for any amount of time, I can't remember many times where there hasn't been some sort of outflow boundary being spat out by this system and thats not generally a great sign for development.

Still its wave that will likely be in the W.cAribbean/Gulf...IF this had never been Gaston and was just an invest now...we'd be watching this like a hawk even without any real major model support...and to be fair thats how we should be looking at this one.

Couldn't agree more.

[fci]

Deleted by fci

[Gustywind]

Dryness...

[fasterdisaster]

Gaston looks like it's trying to create some outflow, but he's not very good at it. If he hits Hispaniola, he's done for IMO. If he goes to the south in the warm and moist central to western Caribbean, he has an excellent shot at regeneration. Either way, for the next couple days I'm inclined to say he'll remain a wave.

[KWT]

Ouch Gustywind the conditions really aren't all that great for ole Gaston right now, the fact general instablity right now is below normal in the Atlantic combined with the dry air nearby isn't a combo that is good for keeping a system convective for long enough to deserve an upgrade.

[Ivanhater]

fci,

I get where you are coming from. However, even 3 days is a very short time frame when it comes to the tropics, especially with waves that came off Africa. As far as the Katrina comparison, I think it is the best example because most people will remember that the most (ex system traversing the ATL and redeveloping in the Western ATL).

[artist]

That was a good ascat pass, but at 9:02am EDT, when we could see the circulation on visible sat, about 6hrs before the recon was there.

Warnings and watches issued by NWS/NHC have closely-defined meanings, often written in the text of the product. Any type of warning means possibly hazardous conditions are expected within a certain time period.
Tropical storms can have winds up to 73mph, and gusts much higher. High enough for a flying piece of debris to injure you badly, or kill you. There is also a type of WARNING issued for thunderstorms with high wind gusts, heavy rain, reduced visibility, frequent lightning, it's called a THUNDERSTORM WARNING.

I'm not saying I think they should begin TD advisories on Gaston, if he doesn't meet the requirements. It really looks like the LLC is gone. I would have waited a bit longer to cancel him in the first place, because I've seen systems that lost nearly all convection and had a few more advisories before being dropped. I think the decision was more based upon the demands of Earl and other systems. But that's water under the bridge, with no bearing on the current status of Gaston. In the past 2 days, I'm confident that NHC has kept a very close eye on this system and would have upgraded it, if conditions warranted.

And lastly... 11years in the tropics I've often marveled at how gentle the weather is here, compared to the storms that roar through tornado alley, where I grew up. We do have thunderstorms, but they are usually not violent, and a wind gust over 40kt is REALLY AN EVENT, and if unexpected, often causes injuries to boaters. There are outdoor restaurants, bars, porch furniture, little roadside shacks selling fresh tropical fruit, sailboats on moorings, whalers tied to mangroves, and dingys pulled up on beaches. This is our charm, this is why people love it and come to relax.

Our rains are usually gentle, too, and don't last very long. When we get tropical-system rain, it falls in such density, and lasts longer, it can't drain into the sea fast enough, and flooding occurs. Along our roads, big rocks the size of your car come down, along with mud and smaller rocks. On the hillsides, sometimes the rock/mud slides just race right through homes. When a system isn't organized enough to have advisories from NHC, the local Met services will issue watches and warnings for all hazards - hopefully local residents pay attention.

Well said. Maybe the chapter is not closed yet down the road but at least weather like when a passing tropical wave occurs is what we will get in the NE Caribbean.You talked about the BVI, but here, flooding events occur many times and that is the part I am worried about.

hey Luis. How do the mets there warn for systems such as this during hurricane seson when there is not an advisory from the NHC? Do most people there pay attention to those or is it better coming from the NHC when lots of rain is expected from a wave?

[Florida1118]

MULTIPLE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GASTON REMAINS POORLY
DEFINED...AND THAT THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS AS
IT MOVES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

[gone2beach]

Gaston looks like it's trying to create some outflow, but he's not very good at it. If he hits Hispaniola, he's done for IMO. If he goes to the south in the warm and moist central to western Caribbean, he has an excellent shot at regeneration. Either way, for the next couple days I'm inclined to say he'll remain a wave.

Just asking....trying to become more educated...When you say warm and moist, are you meaning air temp or water temps? Or both? From what I can discover, right now there is only about a 4* variance from where Gaston is now to the central gulf.

I also totally trust the pro mets!!

[Florida1118]

TWO seems more reasonable to me.