ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[Air Force Met]

ok well the the center just moved NNE,.. according to recon on this pass.. likely just being pulled to the deeper convection to the east..

Yep..."OK...well" pretty much sums up my thoughts.

I swear. I've been forecasting these things for 24 years...and watching them for longer than that...and their ability to pull a fast one never ceases to amaze me.

[cpdaman]

at what point does this thing get close enough to land....to stop having the ability to intensify ..20 miles...30 miles?

and NNE movement still leaves this thing the same distance from the coast....thankfully the coast runs NNE over N mexico...and even curve out more toward the NE (30-35 degrees just south of texas)..

[Aric Dunn]

ok well the the center just moved NNE,.. according to recon on this pass.. likely just being pulled to the deeper convection to the east..

Yep..."OK...well" pretty much sums up my thoughts.

I swear. I've been forecasting these things for 24 years...and watching them for longer than that...and their ability to pull a fast one never ceases to amaze me.

yeah i have been doing this for about 15 years and I still find it amazing especially in radar range..

there is just too much physics we dont know yet..

[TexasF6]

Troy Kimmel KEYE Austin ProMet mentioned that womans passing due to Hermine....very tragic....she's stalling again though.....NNE? recon confirmed this motion? gotta be a wobble......

[hurricaneCW]

The NNE movement was just a little wobble and the radar already shows it wobbling back to the N/NNW.

[KWT]

NNE motion does seem to be occuring at least in the short term looking at the radar, I suspect it maybe something to do with the E.Eyewall strengthening and effectivly causing the system to wobble to the NNE before the eyewall works its way round to the western side and that'll probably give the system enough thrust to send it into Mexico...

[Ivanhater]

Alex, in this region ,wobbled a bit to the NNE when he started the strengthening phase.

[Aric Dunn]

well I got to go.. I wont be able to watch landfall but it should become a hurricane just before landfall. very interesting systems though.

[lrak]

If this stays off the coast its got another approximate 20 degrees of ocean after it passes Brownsville, that might allwo for a possible hurricane?

have a good one Aric Dunn

[Aric Dunn]

Im now getting some 60kt winds from doppler velocities..

[CrazyC83]

Im now getting some 60kt winds from doppler velocities..

60 kt surface equivalent?

[Aric Dunn]

Im now getting some 60kt winds from doppler velocities..

60 kt surface equivalent?

no its up at about 5000 ft ... but so far the nhc has been matching well with doppler velocities have been showing.

[KWT]

Very interesting Aric, going to be a close run thing as to whether the system has time to make it to hurricane status but the less westerly motion it has the greater its chances for sure.

[supercane]

Latest VDM:
000
URNT12 KNHC 070003
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102010
A. 06/23:33:00Z
B. 24 deg 49 min N
097 deg 08 min W
C. 850 mb 1346 m
D. NA
E. NA
F. 137 deg 52 kt
G. 027 deg 32 nm
H. EXTRAP 991 mb
I. 16 C / 1524 m
J. 20 C / 1525 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF301 0210A HERMINE OB 20
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 61 KT E QUAD 23:35:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
;

As discussed above, NNE jog. Flight level winds continue to increase, pressure steady. Looks like this flight crew's mission is over; great job.

[jasons2k]

[lester]

Estimated total rainfall so far. North of BRO ~3" it looks like

[supercane]

7PM CDT Regional obs below. Not a lot of rain thus far, but expect this to change:

TXZ248>255-070100-
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BROWNSVILLE LGT RAIN 81 75 83 N12 29.70F
6HR MIN TEMP: 79; 6HR MAX TEMP: 86; 6HR PCP: 0.13;
PORT ISABEL LGT RAIN 81 77 88 E9 29.72S
6HR MIN TEMP: 80; 6HR MAX TEMP: 85; 6HR PCP: 0.17;
*SOUTH PADRE N/A 81 77 89 NE16G22 29.70S
HARLINGEN RAIN 80 78 94 NE17 29.72S
6HR MIN TEMP: 77; 6HR MAX TEMP: 85; 6HR PCP: 0.01;
*HEBBRONVILLE CLOUDY 85 71 61 E15 29.78R HX 90
6HR MIN TEMP: 85; 6HR MAX TEMP: 92;
MCALLEN CLOUDY 85 75 72 E16G22 29.72F HX 93
6HR MIN TEMP: 84; 6HR MAX TEMP: 91; 6HR PCP: TRACE;
*WESLACO DRIZZLE 81 77 88 NE13 29.72S
6HR MIN TEMP: 80; 6HR MAX TEMP: 89;
FALFURRIAS CLOUDY 85 76 73 E14G21 29.76R HX 94
6HR MIN TEMP: 85; 6HR MAX TEMP: 91;
EDINBURG CLOUDY 86 75 70 E14 29.74R HX 95
6HR MIN TEMP: 82; 6HR MAX TEMP: 88;
*ZAPATA CLOUDY 80 76 88 CALM 29.74S
6HR MIN TEMP: 78; 6HR MAX TEMP: 93; 6HR PCP: 0.15;


NORTHEASTERN MEXICO

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MATAMOROS CLOUDY 81 77 89 N18 29.70

[Javlin]

Could the NNE motion be due to friction with land?I have seen similiar things it seems once with Danny and it basically died in Mobile bay and with a system S of Hispanola that eventually decoupled.I always figured that with such weak steering currents the system feels the friction with land moreso and bounces.While a system is in a fluid state it does have mass and as such it is a form of a collison.

[wxman57]

Looks like the center will be inland south of Brownsville in a few hours. Probably won't make it to hurricane strength. As for me, I've been up most of the last 2 days so I'm heading to bed. The night crew at the office can handle Hermine. Have to rest up for the next one.

[MGC]

Hermine looks to be headed to the NNW to me.....also, the southern eye appears open on radar. Should be inland in a few hours and Brownsville looks to be catching some decents winds from the strom......MGC