ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Gusty, what do you think? TWO "medium chance" or TWD "high chance"? Both at 8pm. OK, now I'm confused, LOL!

: Yeah Bvigal, that's why i posted them ... what can i say, confused for the NHC too

LOLOL! I'm sure Luis is correct, it was just some left-over text from 2pm. I'm anxiously awaiting NWS/SJU's updated marine and discussion tonight. It looks like you will get the first of the rains in Guadeloupe! Here is new 00z precipitable water, moisture around Gaston and into islands is deeper than it was this morning. It's looking more and more like a rainmaker.

Yeah you're right Bvigal. Let's hope that we should not have too much rain from this feature!

[bvigal]

The difficulty for many people who do try to take an interest in the behaviour of tropical waves through to tropical storms is that if they are not connected to S2K or another such forum, they are reliant on the NHC site or sites that take their data from it - like Storm Carib's model info and mapping. So, when Gaston no longer qualifies for warnings, the general level of data immediately available to the public is greatly reduced. Storm Carib carries the models for track forecast; the same reference allows you to calculate distance and future closest point, but when after 3 days of a red circle it still doesn't qualify as an invest or TD, let alone a TS, then the info is blank.

Perhaps the issue is twofold:
1. the impact of a tropical wave or tropical storm on an island 20 miles by 12 miles or less can be far greater proportionately than on a larger island or continental area. Our concerns (and fears) are therefore slightly different
2. where the forecast %age from the NHC is for strengthening above a certain level, then the model data (which is still being produced but is not so easily accessible) should continue to be pumped out. To find out where Gaston is this week is a struggle if you rely on the NHC site, Storm Carib, Stormpulse etc - as it just doesn't show. Many of us in the Islands rely on Storm Carib and it is our first port of call for info. After Ivan, it was critical in getting aid into and info out of Grenada. But it had no info on the location, possible strength and track of Gaston this week - I assume because it would take that from the NHC.
...

Here is a site that you may not have seen, Chris. It contains links to all the island met services. Probably you've seen the one in St. Lucia. But, if that one doesn't have the information you seek, Barbados does very good writeups, and most weather that gets to St. Lucia first passes Barbados. Their "In Depth Discussion" undated this afternoon gives a good description of expected effects from Gaston in Windwards. http://www.cdera.org/index.php (choose Caribbean Weather Forecasts from Menu on the left)

[fci]

michael,
i for one am on the patience side, while gaston is taking longer than i thought to get going again it's survival alone in the environment he has been contending with i think shows us his potential down the line. him staying weak may the gom major problem in the end. l see alot of crow to be served soon and you know who you are.

I think a lot of crow has already been served given the vast number of people who have said just about every few hours since Thursday that Gaston would be reclassified. BTW, crow is reserved only for the amatuers who make their "guesses" based on the latest satellite shot or to try to look like they are genius when their "guess" actually comes true!

[5KOVERLIBOR]

Looks like a patience issue has arisen with this system as well. Happened with the same system that became Katrina. Not everything will turn into a hurricane in 24 hours.

I am actually more concerned with these type systems that traverse the ATL "under the Radar" and miss the weakness in the Atlantic. We have a nice looking system with evidence of a LLC producing its own convection. It is September and once this reaches the Western Caribbean/Bahamas region, the potential is tremendous.

While what you saying is inherently correct, this is not a situation where people grew bored because "Remnant Low Gaston" did not become a hurricane in 24 hours. It has been days now, since Thursday; that this system was declassified and the posts and conjecture since then have been non-stop with talk of regineration into a Hurricane or at least a Tropical Storm or Tropical Depression.

I can't fault people for being weary of it.
And, YES; any system this time of year has the potential to be another Katrina or Andrew that came back from the "dead" to be historic.
However, there are probably hundreds that didn't.......

fci, your sober posts are most appreciated.

[Bailey1777]

i have kept up with this one as much as anyone and maybe you need to go back and read all the poof, goner, and stick a fork in it post before you get involved. i call it like i see it, if i'm wrong i will be the first to admit it. carry on.

[Gustywind]

Continues to struggle?!

[fci]

i have kept up with this one as much as anyone and maybe you need to go back and read all the poof, goner, and stick a fork in it post before you get involved. i call it like i see it, if i'm wrong i will be the first to admit it. carry on.

I commented because I thought your crow comment was smarmy. So if Gaston cones back, people eat crow?
All I said was if you throw out that gauntlet, accept that those who have been continually hyping deserve the same smarmy comment.
Personally, I gave never used the "crow" comment because it seems petty to me
Oh, and I have been keeping up with thread if only because the Pro Mets have been expecting redevelopment.
At this point I would say those who have suggested "poof" are looking better, don't you?
Me, I haven't predicted anything since Gaston has been an enigma.

[Bailey1777]

must be alot of amateurs at the nhc.and i guess 70 and 80 percent chances of formation in sept. in high sst's and ascats showing an established circulation it would be foolish to expect anything....

[Dean4Storms]

I've repeatedly made posts of Gaston's multiple problems, no UL high over it, shear and I've shown the shear maps, dry air and no mid-level circulation ever became apparent during the convective bursts. Even a lower cloud swirl around a low needs convection to persist for at least a full day to begin to develop and stack and even then it needs at least a marginal UL environment which Gaston just hasn't really had.

I've seen a post here or there going on about the GOM and the western Carib. Sea and that once it gets there it will likely develop, not true! For all anyone knows both areas could be enveloped in strong shear, TUTTS or dry air by then. There are way too many variables to say with any certainty.

Gaston's remaining Wave needs to be monitored, certainly there is always a chance he could get into a favorable environment, but unless that becomes apparent and we get some kind of model support and it's not over land I would suggest folks not get so carried away with one or two convective bursts. Give it a half day to a full day at least of constant and growing convection and you won't find yourself being wrong time after time!

[Bailey1777]

last comment and then back to topic the crow is just in fun as the thread is slow. i have said from the begining that i believe this will be a major, right now i look foolish but i have seen this before.i'll tell you what i will bet you a 20 dollar donation to storm2k that gaston becomes a hurricane.deal?

[Dean4Storms]

must be alot of amateurs at the nhc.and i guess 70 and 80 percent chances of formation in sept. in high sst's and ascats showing an established circulation it would be foolish to expect anything....

No, I believe they were playing it safe with it approaching the islands to be honest. But in my opinion they should have kept it 50/50 as it never sustained strong convection for more than 4-6 hours at a time and it was apparent that it was being sheared from the east.

[lester]

must be alot of amateurs at the nhc.and i guess 70 and 80 percent chances of formation in sept. in high sst's and ascats showing an established circulation it would be foolish to expect anything....

The forecasters at the NHC are highly skilled and highly experienced with tropical meteorology. They may be wrong sometimes -- that's human, we all make mistakes. But to call them "amateurs" is highly disrespectful.

[Migle]

last comment and then back to topic the crow is just in fun as the thread is slow. i have said from the begining that i believe this will be a major, right now i look foolish but i have seen this before.i'll tell you what i will bet you a 20 dollar donation to storm2k that gaston becomes a hurricane.deal?

I take that bet

[Ivanhater]

I am still in the redevelopment camp on this one. The potential is there, and that potential is what I will be focusing on.

[summersquall]

I think it's hard to hear sarcasm in someone's posts but I would venture a guess (having read the back and forth banter) that bailey was being sarcastic in his comment re: the nhc. just my take.

[5KOVERLIBOR]

Is there anything to be said for the lack of ramp with ex-Gaston and the below-climo norm vertical instabilities in the CAR and the GOM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... carins.png

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... gmxins.png

And those that have returned to the Tropical Atlantic?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... tatins.png

[Dean4Storms]

I am still in the redevelopment camp on this one. The potential is there, and that potential is what I will be focusing on.

Yea, I believe the ECM was showing it closing off near western Cuba on the 12z run, we'll need to see if any models pick this up and if the ECM continues with that solution. Right now I give it 30% for the next few days due to shear, dry air, the bigger islands and the fact that no global models do anything with it short term.

[Bailey1777]

i was being sarcastic to others not the nhc they have my respect.

[supercane]

Yea, I believe the ECM was showing it closing off near western Cuba on the 12z run, we'll need to see if any models pick this up and if the ECM continues with that solution.

Nope. See the loop here and refer to AJC3 in the Gaston model thread:

It's definitely not Gaston, and it's not PGI42L, nor is it ex-99L either. The Euro moves the low that it initializes near 20N 27W westward to around 45W through H96 and dampens it out. Meanwhile, it starts to spin up something in situ over the islands near 15N 60W at around H96 and pushes it westward to 15N 70W at H156, over Jamaica at H192, just south of the Isle of Youth at H216, and then over the extreme western tip of Cuba at H240

[Ivanhater]

I am still in the redevelopment camp on this one. The potential is there, and that potential is what I will be focusing on.

Yea, I believe the ECM was showing it closing off near western Cuba on the 12z run, we'll need to see if any models pick this up and if the ECM continues with that solution. Right now I give it 30% for the next few days due to shear, dry air, the bigger islands and the fact that no global models do anything with it short term.

Agree with you for the most part, except for the no global model support. GFDL makes it a cat 3

Edit, GFDL makes it a CAT 1.