ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

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#541 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 06, 2010 9:51 pm

wow there is complete lack of observations in the Brownsville area... the winds have to be higher than 14mph ... all the doppler radar estimates around the brownsville area are showing 40 to 45kts.. I think the NWS people do something about there anemometer. lol
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#542 Postby supercane » Mon Sep 06, 2010 9:54 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:when should the rains pick up in earnest in San Antonio?

Judge for yourself. Latest radar composite:
Image
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#543 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:04 pm

"The eyewall" looks as though it will go nearly directly over the radar site.
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#544 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:11 pm

well after searching around there was a few reports of winds in the 50's around brownsville..
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

#545 Postby latitude_20 » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:12 pm

Seeing the leading edge of the northern outflow out my back window now.
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#546 Postby Texashawk » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:13 pm

I swear this thing is going north again... maybe even a touch NNE... looks like it might go directly over Brownsville... could be interesting if it keeps going just a touch east of north...
Last edited by Texashawk on Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

#547 Postby lrak » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:13 pm

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=ptit2 East instead of ESE?

and the radar looks like the low center is heading NNE again? Another wobble?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
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#548 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:19 pm

yeah its moving north for sure.. for the last hour or so .. should go right over the radar station.. in the next couple hours.
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#549 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:22 pm

I am finding a lot of 65 an 70 kt doppler velocities.. at only a 1000 to 1500 feet...in the eastern eyewall
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

#550 Postby lrak » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:23 pm

I wonder if this might take a laguna madre trail after Brownsville. Half land half sea monster tomorrow morning for school and work...ACK!
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#551 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:25 pm

I think people in the brownsville area are in for a little more than they bargained for.... most were expecting a weak TS.. but a strong TS is much different .. once you start getting close to hurricane force you can tell.. and things get a little more interesting...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

#552 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:26 pm

is the NW movement done? or is this just a big northerly jog?
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#553 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:28 pm

finally sustained TS force winds showing up all over
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#554 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:29 pm

Brownsville is definitely going to get smacked with more TS conditions. I brought it up around Page 23 or 24, but I still think Hermine is wetter than either GFS or NAM indicated. NAM, so far, has done a nice job with the idea - just light on rainfall. GFS has simply underestimated. It was good to see the warnings and discussion by both the NHC and the NWS Brownsville who didn't underplay what the models appear to have done. I think there will be plenty of 8+ by Wednesday. And I'm still looking forward to visible presentation tomorrow. Hermine was the type of storm that might hold some tropical characteristics for a while - or certainly an identifiable low. JMO <--- Preceding the opinion of the poster only.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

#555 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:30 pm

steve how much do you think i will get in san antonio?
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#556 Postby Dave » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:31 pm

DATE: SEP 06 23:07:00 EDT
TYPE: TROPICAL STORM
CITY: BROWNSVILLE
COUNTY: CAMERON
STATE: TX
SOURCE: ASOS
DETAILS: WIND GUST OF 51 MPH RECORDED AT BRO ASOS
============================
DATE: SEP 06 23:18:00 EDT
TYPE: TROPICAL STORM
CITY: SOUTH PADRE ISLAND
COUNTY: CAMERON
STATE: TX
SOURCE: DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
DETAILS: 50 MPH WIND GUST FROM TXDOT WEATHER
STATION ON CAUSEWAY FROM PORT ISABEL TO
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND.
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#557 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:33 pm

NWS weather office looks like its going to take a direct hit.. again dopper relative velocities are showing 65 to 70kts in the "eyewall" not sure how much is reaching the surface but the radar is only looking at 1000 ft..
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#558 Postby Texashawk » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:38 pm

Looks like Brownsville is going to take an eyewall hit... should be an interesting next 2 hours there....
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#559 Postby blazess556 » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:39 pm

KSPL reporting 44 mph sustained and gusts to 52 mph.
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#560 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:39 pm

62mph winds near south padre... isle grand resort
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Sep 06, 2010 10:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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