ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

This area is really lacking in the observations..

[supercane]

And winds at Brownsville back up to 60kt (SE 45 MPH gusting to 69 MPH). Also wind veering from E to SE, suggesting system passing to SW but exposing Brownsville to the NE eyewall:
KBRO 070423Z 13039G60KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR SCT007 BKN011 OVC017 26/26 A2952 RMK AO2 PK WND 12060/0420 P0021 $

[Aric Dunn]

apparently a couple shrimp boats have washed into the rocks near south padre

[Aric Dunn]

numerous trees and signs down... in Brownsville ... port of Brownsville completely without power

[TwisterFanatic]

Wow! sounds like Brownsville is getting hit hard. Prayers go out them.

[supercane]

Brownsville has had an hour of sustained TS force winds with gusts approaching hurricane force.
KBRO 070453Z 14038G51KT 1 1/2SM +RA BR BKN007 BKN015 OVC022 26/26 A2954 RMK AO2 PK WND 12060/0420 SLP001 P0029 T02560256
KBRO 070448Z 14039G51KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR OVC007 26/26 A2953 RMK AO2 PK WND 12060/0420 VIS 1 1/4V4 P0029
KBRO 070433Z 13034G55KT 3SM RA BR BKN007 OVC018 26/26 A2953 RMK AO2 PK WND 12060/0420 PRESRR P0021 $
KBRO 070425Z 13038G60KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR BKN007 BKN011 OVC025 26/26 A2952 RMK AO2 PK WND 12060/0420 VIS 1 1/4V5 P0021 $
KBRO 070423Z 13039G60KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR SCT007 BKN011 OVC017 26/26 A2952 RMK AO2 PK WND 12060/0420 P0021 $
KBRO 070416Z 11037G53KT 1 1/4SM +RA BR FEW007 BKN017 OVC024 26/25 A2951 RMK AO2 PK WND 10060/0405 P0015 $
KBRO 070401Z 11038G60KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR SCT011 BKN016 OVC025 26/24 A2951 RMK AO2 PK WND 12060/0401 P0002
KBRO 070353Z 10039G53KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR BKN011 BKN016 OVC029 26/25 A2953 RMK AO2 PK WND 11053/0352 PRESFR SLP998 P0066 T02610250

[somethingfunny]

Wow! That's a heck of a storm hitting them down there!

[supercane]

Gusts in Brownsville falling as Hermine passes to the west. Radar image from the Hermine floater page here at Storm2K.

[Texashawk]

Wow... I think this thing's trying to make a run for the coast... the east eyewall is only about 30 miles from the open water... heading just east of due north as of 12:30 AM CDT... could yet be interesting!

edit... more like 10 miles

[dwsqos2]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=PTIT2

PTIT2 reported 46 g 55 kt at 0506Z.

09 07 12:06 am SE 46.0 55.0 - - - - 29.64 - 78.4 84.9 - - - -

SPECI KHRL 070543Z AUTO 11047G60KT 3/4SM RA BR FEW004 BKN010 OVC015 25/25 A2938 RMK AO2 PK WND 10060/0543 TWR VIS 5 PRESFR

47 knot sustained winds in Harlingen; that's quite a distance inland; also pressure was 29.38 in.

[paintplaye]

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
100 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010

...CENTER OF HERMINE CROSSES THE RIO GRANDE...SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 97.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SSW OF HARLINGEN TEXAS
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.7 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HERMINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. VERY RECENTLY...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...87 KM/HR...AND
A PEAK GUST OF 69 MPH...111 KM/HR...WERE REPORTED AT HARLINGEN
TEXAS WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH...72
KM/HR...AND A PEAK GUST OF 69 MPH...111 KM/HR...WERE ALSO REPORTED
AT THE BROWNSVILLE/SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WARNING AREA
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.

RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN

NNNN

[supercane]

Harlingen now up to 70 mph (61kt) gusts:
KHRL 070552Z AUTO 11046G61KT 3/4SM RA BR FEW001 BKN010 OVC015 25/25 A2932 RMK AO2 PK WND 11061/0549 TWR VIS 5 PRESFR SLP929 6//// T02500250 10267 20244 402940244 58123

[dwsqos2]

SPECI KHRL 070558Z AUTO 12048G63KT 1SM RA BR FEW001 BKN008 OVC015 25/25 A2929 RMK AO2 PK WND 12063/0558 TWR VIS 5 PRESFR P0002

Now Harlingen is reporting 48 g 63 knots with a pressure of 29.29 in.

(To give some perspective, during Dolly of 2008 Harlingen reported 49 g 64 knots.)

[supercane]

And now gusting to 63kt (72mph) at Harlingen, just shy of hurricane force:
KHRL 070558Z AUTO 12048G63KT 1SM RA BR FEW001 BKN008 OVC015 25/25 A2929 RMK AO2 PK WND 12063/0558 TWR VIS 5 PRESFR P0002

[Texashawk]

It's hard to tell, but it looks like the east eyewall is only about 7-10 miles from water. We're about to truly find out whether close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades...

[Texashawk]

It's also interesting to me that we have a very strong tropical storm that just made landfall and is lashing a fairly large (400,000+) city and there's barely a peep on these boards. And it's not really *that* late yet! Curious...

[paintplaye]

It's also interesting to me that we have a very strong tropical storm that just made landfall and is lashing a fairly large (400,000+) city and there's barely a peep on these boards. And it's not really *that* late yet! Curious...

haha it is 1:19 central time and considering a lot of people have to work tomorrow, it is kinda expected. Plus a lot of people didn't think it would head north and hit bro with so much force to knock out most of the power.

[Texashawk]

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=6&delay=5&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BRO&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=389&map.y=243&centerx=400&centery=240&lightning=0&smooth1&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0

You can do it, girl!! Go, go!

[HouTXmetro]

I think it's just dry air entrainment, still looks NNW to me. Are there any computer models that remotely suggest due north or NNE at this time?

[Texashawk]

I think it's just dry air entrainment, still looks NNW to me. Are there any computer models that remotely suggest due north or NNE at this time?

Perhaps, but she's not moving very quickly west, if at all, at least visually.