ATL: GASTON - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#881 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:07 pm

brings it back at 54hr....first time in awhile its brough it back at this hour..

Image
0 likes   
Top
paintplaye
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#882 Postby paintplaye » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:11 pm

72:

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#883 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:21 pm

well at least it sees it up to 92hrs this time...thats a first...

keeps it south of the islands....

Image
0 likes   
Top
paintplaye
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:25 pm

#884 Postby paintplaye » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:22 pm

And gone:

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#885 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:23 pm

though you know that seems like a long time, 4 days to make it that far in the carib.....maybe thats not Gaston's remains...
0 likes   
Top
paintplaye
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#886 Postby paintplaye » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:25 pm

ROCK wrote:though you know that seems like a long time, 4 days to make it that far in the carib.....maybe thats not Gaston's remains...



I tracked the 850mb vort and it is:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_85v_lu_loop.shtml
0 likes   
Top
fasterdisaster
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1868
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm
Location: Miami, Florida

#887 Postby fasterdisaster » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:27 pm

It seems like every model has absolutely no clue what to do with Gaston.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#888 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:40 pm

I dont get it....why would the LGEM, SHIPS and the GFDL go bonkers on intensity but yet the GFS run after run doesnt do anything with it....
0 likes   
Top
fasterdisaster
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1868
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm
Location: Miami, Florida

#889 Postby fasterdisaster » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:49 pm

I suppose once and for all we'll at least see which models are the kings of the season.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#890 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:58 pm

0z CMC sees it up to 108hr then gone.... I am guess into CA....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#891 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 07, 2010 12:02 am

0z GFDL out 72 hours has this under Hispa...at least it sees it... :lol:

78 still moving under Hispa....looks like it abandon the sw dip this run....also at 1005mb..
Last edited by ROCK on Tue Sep 07, 2010 12:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6365
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#892 Postby boca » Tue Sep 07, 2010 12:03 am

We have more cloud cover over South Florida then whats going on with the remnants of Gaston I wish it would just dissapate allready this system is just one thunderstorm that won't die.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#893 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 07, 2010 12:08 am

84hr pulls up through Hispa and out the other side.....what a flip from the 18z...crazy...
0 likes   
Top
fasterdisaster
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1868
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm
Location: Miami, Florida

#894 Postby fasterdisaster » Tue Sep 07, 2010 12:12 am

It does seem to me that Gaston is getting a bit more model support tonight than in previous days.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11153
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#895 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 07, 2010 12:27 am

Not Gaston, but another wave approaching the NW Caribbean is getting some model support. Euro and Nogaps

Image
0 likes   
Michael
Top
Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#896 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Sep 07, 2010 12:41 am

Nothing on 0z CMC
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143862
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#897 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 07, 2010 7:28 am

12z Tropical Models

SHIP continues to bomb it in Western Caribbean.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 071223
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1223 UTC TUE SEP 7 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE GASTON (AL092010) 20100907 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100907  1200   100908  0000   100908  1200   100909  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.8N  62.4W   16.7N  65.1W   16.4N  67.6W   16.4N  69.7W
BAMD    16.8N  62.4W   16.8N  65.1W   16.9N  67.4W   16.9N  69.3W
BAMM    16.8N  62.4W   16.7N  65.0W   16.6N  67.4W   16.7N  69.4W
LBAR    16.8N  62.4W   16.8N  65.3W   16.7N  67.8W   16.7N  70.1W
SHIP        20KTS          19KTS          23KTS          33KTS
DSHP        20KTS          19KTS          23KTS          33KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100909  1200   100910  1200   100911  1200   100912  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.3N  71.2W   16.1N  74.0W   16.1N  77.9W   16.1N  82.8W
BAMD    16.8N  70.9W   16.7N  74.1W   17.1N  78.2W   17.5N  82.4W
BAMM    16.7N  70.9W   16.9N  73.9W   17.5N  77.4W   18.1N  81.6W
LBAR    16.7N  72.2W   16.5N  76.1W   16.8N  80.0W   17.0N  84.1W
SHIP        46KTS          67KTS          86KTS         108KTS
DSHP        46KTS          67KTS          86KTS         108KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.8N LONCUR =  62.4W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  17.5N LONM12 =  59.0W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 =  18KT
LATM24 =  17.4N LONM24 =  55.5W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  110NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#898 Postby rockyman » Tue Sep 07, 2010 12:51 pm

12z Euro is running
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11153
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#899 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 07, 2010 12:54 pm

This is extremely interesting. The intensity models have been exploding this in the mid range consistently. The globals see nothing, then again they saw nothing to begin with and Gaston developed anyway.
0 likes   
Michael
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143862
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#900 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:58 pm

12z ECMWF shows Ex Gaston in GOM. Shows other things but that is for other topics at TT.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 57 guests