PGI41L. Coming off African coast (Now Invest 91L)
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Wx_Warrior
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Wx_Warrior
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Good news is once again the glaring weakness at 60W is back looking at the models and its going to have to remain weak like Ex-Gaston is to really have a shot at missing the weakness....
Still its got good model support so it likely will be our next hurricane IMO.
Still its got good model support so it likely will be our next hurricane IMO.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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ColinDelia
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HURAKAN
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862
ABNT20 KNHC 071158
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HERMINE...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 50 MILES WEST OF CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GASTON. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
LOW MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
ABNT20 KNHC 071158
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HERMINE...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 50 MILES WEST OF CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GASTON. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
LOW MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
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Re: PGI41L. Coming off African coast
The cfc model did a remarkable job in predicting this weakness near 60W months before the peak of hurricane season....
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ColinDelia
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Brent
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Re: PGI41L. Coming off African coast
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HERMINE...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN
ANTONIO TEXAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE REMNANTS OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS REMAINS MINIMAL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HERMINE...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN
ANTONIO TEXAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE REMNANTS OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS REMAINS MINIMAL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
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#neversummer
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Blown Away
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Re: PGI41L. Coming off African coast
Will the wave to the NW keep PGI41L on a more westward track?
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cycloneye
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Re: PGI41L. Coming off African coast
I see a pronounced recurve just before 60W. Is that curve going to be that way?
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Brent
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Re:
abajan wrote:Okay, what’s going on? The Active Storms forum has this as Invest 91L on the chart but the topic isn’t closed here. Hmm...
I was just about to ask. There is NO confirmation of 91L on either NRL or ATCF. I think it's a mistake.
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#neversummer
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Ivanhater
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- Location: Pensacola
Re: PGI41L. Coming off African coast
Models being run...Now invest 91L
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109316
000
WHXX01 KWBC 071856
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1856 UTC TUE SEP 7 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100907 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100907 1800 100908 0600 100908 1800 100909 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 20.5W 14.5N 22.7W 14.5N 25.4W 14.2N 28.5W
BAMD 14.1N 20.5W 14.7N 23.0W 15.4N 25.7W 15.9N 28.6W
BAMM 14.1N 20.5W 14.6N 22.5W 15.0N 25.1W 15.2N 28.0W
LBAR 14.1N 20.5W 14.8N 22.2W 15.7N 24.5W 16.6N 27.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 35KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100909 1800 100910 1800 100911 1800 100912 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 31.9W 12.5N 38.6W 11.0N 42.1W 11.7N 41.2W
BAMD 16.4N 31.7W 17.1N 37.9W 16.5N 44.0W 15.0N 49.3W
BAMM 15.4N 31.2W 15.5N 37.8W 14.2N 43.7W 12.8N 46.9W
LBAR 17.9N 30.7W 20.2N 37.4W 21.0N 42.8W 16.0N 43.7W
SHIP 40KTS 58KTS 70KTS 78KTS
DSHP 40KTS 58KTS 70KTS 78KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 20.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 19.5W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 17.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109316
000
WHXX01 KWBC 071856
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1856 UTC TUE SEP 7 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100907 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100907 1800 100908 0600 100908 1800 100909 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 20.5W 14.5N 22.7W 14.5N 25.4W 14.2N 28.5W
BAMD 14.1N 20.5W 14.7N 23.0W 15.4N 25.7W 15.9N 28.6W
BAMM 14.1N 20.5W 14.6N 22.5W 15.0N 25.1W 15.2N 28.0W
LBAR 14.1N 20.5W 14.8N 22.2W 15.7N 24.5W 16.6N 27.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 35KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100909 1800 100910 1800 100911 1800 100912 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 31.9W 12.5N 38.6W 11.0N 42.1W 11.7N 41.2W
BAMD 16.4N 31.7W 17.1N 37.9W 16.5N 44.0W 15.0N 49.3W
BAMM 15.4N 31.2W 15.5N 37.8W 14.2N 43.7W 12.8N 46.9W
LBAR 17.9N 30.7W 20.2N 37.4W 21.0N 42.8W 16.0N 43.7W
SHIP 40KTS 58KTS 70KTS 78KTS
DSHP 40KTS 58KTS 70KTS 78KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 20.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 19.5W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 17.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Michael