ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[chrisnnavarre]

Will probably look better as it moves into the Western Caribbean.

[KWT]

low level circulation still going but it looks weaker then on previous times...convection is still trying to develop but its just not having much luck in holding at all...

[Aric Dunn]

Is there anything to be said for the lack of ramp with ex-Gaston and the below-climo norm vertical instabilities in the CAR and the GOM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... carins.png

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... gmxins.png

And those that have returned to the Tropical Atlantic?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... tatins.png

I suspect as a lowly "Tropical Wave" I shouldn't be expectant of anyone replying. So I'll respond to this myself.

No, 5KOVERLIBOR, the lack of anything behaving as the biased posters that flood these boards would hope has little if anything to do with persistently anomalously low vertical instabilities.

Cool...thanks.

Funny.. but I did not see your post... And yes we have acknowledged the fact that there is very low instability due to a number of factors that for the past few days were supposed to improve. it has at least moved into a area of greater low level moisture which should help with some convection the other issue has been a lack of upper support mostly being the fact that it has been in a environment of weak divergence aloft which also has improved slightly today. the other issues of dry mid and upper level are still present especially on the east side of the system. so it at least 50/50 on environmental issues. The land interaction may help this time as it should pass south of PR and Hispaniola as it does so the environment should continue to slowly improve and when it gets in the central and western carrib it will have a decent chance of making a comeback. in the mean time we should see a more consistent convective pattern as long as the low level convergence is not completely gone from its struggles with the continued collapse of the little convection it has developed over the past few days. The main thing to remember is that its still a well defined tropical wave with area of low pressure in the peak of the hurricane season and thus needs to be watched..

[canes04]

what a roller coaster ride with this one.
It does look better now than the past 24 hours.

I think it will, forget it (no freakin idea).

[Aric Dunn]

what a roller coaster ride with this one.
It does look better now than the past 24 hours.

I think it will, forget it (no freakin idea).

hehe.. when it comes down to it .. none of us have a freaking idea.... at best we can only give probabilities of certain things happening .. lol

[Froggy]

Seventy seven pages of comments on Gaston...the little "engine" that could, should, would, might...whatever!

[artist]

Seventy seven pages of comments on Gaston...the little "engine" that could, should, would, might...whatever!

and let's hope he doesn't! He needs to just be put out of his and our misery!

[ColinDelia]

hehe.. when it comes down to it .. none of us have a freaking idea.... at best we can only give probabilities of certain things happening .. lol

Ain't that the truth. And the best of us (NHC, IMO) went from thinking it could become a depression at any time to 10% in the next 48 hours.

[blazess556]

Good link to track ex-gaston.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... ightning=0

[ROCK]

Good link to track ex-gaston.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... ightning=0

the eye will pass right under PR......Eye...

[5KOVERLIBOR]

Is there anything to be said for the lack of ramp with ex-Gaston and the below-climo norm vertical instabilities in the CAR and the GOM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... carins.png

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... gmxins.png

And those that have returned to the Tropical Atlantic?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... tatins.png

I suspect as a lowly "Tropical Wave" I shouldn't be expectant of anyone replying. So I'll respond to this myself.

No, 5KOVERLIBOR, the lack of anything behaving as the biased posters that flood these boards would hope has little if anything to do with persistently anomalously low vertical instabilities.


Cool...thanks.

Funny.. but I did not see your post... And yes we have acknowledged the fact that there is very low instability due to a number of factors that for the past few days were supposed to improve. it has at least moved into a area of greater low level moisture which should help with some convection the other issue has been a lack of upper support mostly being the fact that it has been in a environment of weak divergence aloft which also has improved slightly today. the other issues of dry mid and upper level are still present especially on the east side of the system. so it at least 50/50 on environmental issues. The land interaction may help this time as it should pass south of PR and Hispaniola as it does so the environment should continue to slowly improve and when it gets in the central and western carrib it will have a decent chance of making a comeback. in the mean time we should see a more consistent convective pattern as long as the low level convergence is not completely gone from its struggles with the continued collapse of the little convection it has developed over the past few days. The main thing to remember is that its still a well defined tropical wave with area of low pressure in the peak of the hurricane season and thus needs to be watched..

KWT, Aric Dunn - much thanks to the both of you for your knowledge. Is it in your opinions that we can point to these anomalously low vertical instability profiles as a cornerstone in any explanation for the lack of activity, not only with ex-Gaston, but in the basins as a whole? And if this is the case, is it reasonable to state that until we see these instabilities increase, we cannot reasonably expect "typical" peak-season performance?

[Steve]

>>KWT, Aric Dunn - much thanks to the both of you for your knowledge. Is it in your opinions that we can point to these anomalously low vertical instability profiles as a cornerstone in any explanation for the lack of activity, not only with ex-Gaston, but in the basins as a whole? And if this is the case, is it reasonable to state that until we see these instabilities increase, we cannot reasonably expect "typical" peak-season performance?

I don't think it is at all. I think each of the storms is a product of what's going on at the time. The biggest issue to date, and it's something Bastardi threw out there a few weeks ago that KWT and I had been talking about, is that the generally lower pressure in the NE US and Canada have been doing the work of redistribution of heat. In other words, there hasn't really been a need for the tropics to do the dirty work (at least up until Danielle and Earl came along). We're also in a somewhat strong and increasing La Nina season where there is a greater likelihood of a later season with plenty of weaker, western-biased storms and recurves. I think we total it up at the end of the year and see if things made sense. If not, then we wonder if it was low vertical instability, lack of temperature contrast between the sea surface and upper atmosphere (which was what Dr. Masters started hinting at in mid-August before the season took a turn) or if it was something else or many factors. But I think the initial slow start had to do with low pressure profiles in the northeast. There is no strong signal that that profile is going to change or flip for any length of time as both the ECMWF and GFS are +/- neutral-negative NAO for the forseeable future.

[Sanibel]

Big burst. Looks like a go. Our instincts were right.

[Aric Dunn]

this is the most convection i have seen it maintain since it was actually gaston.. lol

[canes04]

Agree Aric,

But we have been down this road before with this one.

All I hope for is it stays south of Haiti.

I will go out on a limb and say it develops within 48 hours(barring land interaction).

[BigA]

Definitely looks better than it has in a few days. Lack of buoy reports near the convective blowup, but a report to its northwest on the south coast of Puerto Rico shows a wind from the north, which is indicative of there being at least part of a circulation left.

For the sake of both the people of Haiti and the storm (with the people of Haiti being infinitely more important) I hope this system remains south of Hispaniola.

[Aric Dunn]

Agree Aric,

But we have been down this road before with this one.

All I hope for is it stays south of Haiti.

I will go out on a limb and say it develops within 48 hours(barring land interaction).

I meant to start that statement with "its pretty sad that"

[fci]

It's dead Jim

Now if it regenerates are you going to post on how you really thought it would come back all along?

With all due repect; do you think the hordes of people who have predicted a Hurricane Gaston since Thursday when it became a remnant low; will post how they thought it was dead all along?

[BigA]

Buoy to the Southeast of the convective blowup is reporting southwest winds, which is consistent with a closed circulation. (but they're rather light, only 10 kts)

[fci]

Amazing that there have been approximately 1,500 posts on a system that has never been more than a weak TS - life's very short folks - don't waste valuable time on something that doesn't require this much discussion...

Frank

Frank; that's easy to say now when the NHC has gone from a consistent 70%-90% chance down to 10%.
They saw something all along.

Hey, I followed this dead dog diligently too since the NHC stayed bullish on regeneration.
This one is a rare one that defied the logic and scientific know-how used by the NHC and The Pro Mets.

Any of the amatuers who predicted it would bomb or it would die were just guessing anyway.
It certainly was entertaining watching the ebbs and flows of this thread as the amatuers opined on what they had no clue about!

That's what makes this science so interesting, it is unpredictable and defies logic at times!