Caribbean development? (Is invest 92L)

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro and 00z Nogaps are developing a tropical system in the NW Caribbean. Not exactly sure what wave this originates from.

[ConvergenceZone]

good catch Ivan, I would think something like that HAS to develop. It's not an option, it has to based upon the time of the year it is.....

[ColinDelia]

That's interesting. Can't figure out where that comes from. Looks like it just spins up

[O Town]

Looking at the nogaps it appears to spin up from all of the moisture
in S.America.

LINK

[ROCK]

Looking at the nogaps it appears to spin up from all of the moisture
in S.America.

LINK

correct...the ECM is seeing this as well at 216hr at the Yucatan channel...

[Ivanhater]

00z Euro still showing the system

[Blown Away]

Looks like the weakness over the SE CONUS would recurve the Atlantic systems but may allow the W Caribbean system to move north instead of west?

[RachelAnna]

Hmm.... Wonder where, or if, this is going to go...

[ColinDelia]

the 0z euro looks like it has it around Barbados at 72 hours then moving west across the entire caribbean

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

[Wx_Warrior]

[Ivanhater]

216 hours

[Vortex]

look at that high coming out of canada...

[Ivanhater]

240 hours

[Big O]

At 216, there appears to be a high centered over LA, which should steer system in NW Carribean toward the NE Mexican/Southern Texas coast if the pattern depicted on the model verifies. Still a long way out and things will undoubtedly change.

[Big O]

Looking at the 240h image Ivan posted, the system did move off the Yucatan in the general direction of NE Mexico/Southern Texas. However, the high over LA and Texas seems to have weakened and/or moved east, which in my opinion would increase the threat to Texas and possibly LA if the 12z European verifies. As I already said, this will undoubtedly change.

[Wx_Warrior]

Good eye Big O....interesting thing would be where does the middle one end up?

[Ivanhater]

At 216, there appears to be a high centered over LA, which should steer system in NW Carribean toward the NE Mexican/Southern Texas coast if the pattern depicted on the model verifies. Still a long way out and things will undoubtedly change.

Between 216 and 240 hours, the high is reduced significantly so if extrapolated, it would likely start gaining much more latitude. However, really no need to over analyze in this range

216



240

[BigA]

look at that high coming out of canada...

What would a big high coming out of Canada do to this system's track, or the track of another system farther to the east over the Atlantic?

[Wx_Warrior]

Ivan,

IF verifies, that could be an ugly problem for Tex/La...SETX would be on the edge of the ridge.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan,

IF verifies, that could be an ugly problem for Tex/La...SETX would be on the edge of the ridge.

Absolutely, of course things will change back and forth but we have consistency here with a storm developing.

This could be the first storm traversing the NW Caribbean and that is trouble in itself.