ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1561 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:22 pm

Admittedly Puerto Rican radar looks weak but this one entered the Caribbean with a head start. I look at this more like untapped vapor just needing a spark. We're obviously seeing a developing cyclone here as predicted.


Perhaps ULL shear-enhanced convection? (Either way it might stimulate development)
Last edited by Sanibel on Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1562 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:35 pm

20 frame LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

I don't know, looks awfully wave-like.

You can speed up the loop to see the circulation, or what's left, but also notice convection near the 'center' is failing.
Last edited by tolakram on Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1563 Postby Bailey1777 » Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:35 pm

question, why is there a discrepancy between the outlook and the forecast discussion? outlook says 20 percent which is an improvement while discussion talks of expected dissipation.
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#1564 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:44 pm

>>If it stays south of Haiti/DR, and develops, you're probably getting a cat-4 in the west-carr. Remember how quickly Gustov intensified?

Cat 4? Eh, I don't know about that. My money would be on a cyclonically turning wave that some think will intensify and others think will dissipate. But that's just me...
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1565 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:45 pm

I don't think there is a LLC anymore.

However, there still is a sharp wave signature, confirmed by ASCAT. Also, ex-Gaston, is moving out of the dry air region and into the moist Caribbean environment. Being September and a sharp wave with very cold cloud tops moving into the Western Caribbean, there is a lot of potential.

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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1566 Postby Frank2 » Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:45 pm

I don't know, looks awfully wave-like.

You can speed up the loop to see the circulation, or what's left, but also notice convection near the 'center' is failing.


Right - that's probably why the NHC is just keeping it at 20%, since it does have the appearance on radar of a wave that's just rolling along...

Well, back to Perry Mason for me (lol)...
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1567 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:47 pm

Ivanhater wrote:I don't think there is a LLC anymore.


Definitely not. Recon was out 3 hours yesterday and never found one.

This system has a long way to go since it's lacking that. At least a couple of days of sustained convection(and this storm has had a major problem keeping convection).
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1568 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:48 pm

A little off topic, but the new Euro is really active. The wave behind ex Gaston develops into a cyclone in the Caribbean at 192 hours. This wave being discussed in Talking tropics

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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1569 Postby Vortex » Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:53 pm

Ivan, I dont have access to the euro at work but what is that approaching the islands...I know off topic but it appears to be the wave the gfs recurves aroud 50w...
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1570 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:54 pm

Vortex wrote:Ivan, I dont have access to the euro at work but what is that approaching the islands...I know off topic but it appears to be the wave the gfs recurves aroud 50w...


That is the wave coming off Africa mentioned in the NHC tropical outlook.
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#1571 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:55 pm

More bark then bite here.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1572 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:59 pm

there is a weak LLC here....low level turning is evident....not as vigorous as it once was but its still there...it needs to sustain convection into the evening and night....if it does that then it might be a go...
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1573 Postby ColinDelia » Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:07 pm

7 hour change

1045z
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1745z
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1574 Postby Macrocane » Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:17 pm

It seems that the LLC is gone, so if it redevelops (and that's a big IF) then it will have another name won't it?
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1575 Postby fci » Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:25 pm

ROCK wrote:there is a weak LLC here....low level turning is evident....not as vigorous as it once was but its still there...it needs to sustain convection into the evening and night....if it does that then it might be a go...

Agree!
I'd say it is a "go" too.
20% chance of it.
80% chance it is a wave with no future over the next 48 hours or so.
100% chance that some posters will say that it will still regenerate
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1576 Postby bvigal » Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:26 pm

Little "nothing" Gaston has caused my power to be out almost continuously since 1am, 3 outages but the "on" times were brief! First it was lightning, then wind. Sure glad the bulk of it went south of VI/PR, and misses DR/Haiti! He may look disorganized but there is still some energy there.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1577 Postby lonelymike » Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:26 pm

Steve made some good posts about vertical instability. Does anyone have a link to good explanation of what vertical instability is or a link to any graphs or charts detailing it?
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#1578 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:32 pm

its is a open circ at the moment but there is still a lot of curvature and the convection will help close it off again if it can maintain for long enough. but its clearly in a better environment now which was expected to happen eventually. the eastern carrib is terrible for development do to the easterly flow close to south America being typically faster the westerly flow of developing LLC or weak LLC. thats why it will likely if at all re develop farther west into the central and western caribb.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1579 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:32 pm

fci wrote:
ROCK wrote:there is a weak LLC here....low level turning is evident....not as vigorous as it once was but its still there...it needs to sustain convection into the evening and night....if it does that then it might be a go...


[quote="fci"]
Agree!
I'd say it is a "go" too.
20% chance of it.
80% chance it is a wave with no future over the next 48 hours or so.
100% chance that some posters will say that it will still regenerate[/quote]


You still seem to have a problem (sense you continually point it out) when a poster thinks regeneration will occur. We are here to throw out potential and possibilities. If you or any other poster feels the opposite, feel free to post it but stop posting your issue with other posters who point out the potential. This goes for anyone.

We will not go down this road again and derail this thread. If anyone has an issue please revert to PM.
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Re: ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

#1580 Postby bvigal » Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:34 pm

lonelymike wrote:Steve made some good posts about vertical instability. Does anyone have a link to good explanation of what vertical instability is or a link to any graphs or charts detailing it?

Not exactly the same, but close, the vorticity. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor That's the 850mb, also have 700,500,200. The last time I checked it, I think Sunday or Saturday, Gaston had vorticity on 850,700,500. Look at him now, low-level only.
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