Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

ok.
keep me informed please if anything changes
thanks
barbara

No problem.
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST MON SEP 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK. REMNANTS OF GASTON STILL A THREAT TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF PR/USVI
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED TO THIS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN
AREA AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET OR MOVE OVER
THE MONA PASSAGE. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS REMNANTS OF GASTON MOVE
CLOSER TO OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
REMAIN HIGH...EITHER LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...LOCAL
RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN ALERT TO
ANY CHANGES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AS RAIN BANDS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE LOCAL ISLANDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH 06/22Z IN A PASSING SHRA OR TSRA...WITH A VCSH
LIKELY AT TJSJ...TIST AND TNCM. SHRAS AND TSRAS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD
BANDS OF FORMER TS GASTON WILL REACH TNCM AND TKPK AFT
07/00Z...BRINGING BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KT
OVERNIGHT. THESE SHRAS AND TSRAS SHOULD REACH THE VI BY 07/04Z AND
TJSJ AFT 07/06Z WITH MVFR CONDS...AND LOCALLY IFR VSBYS...AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 30 KT...POSSIBLE ALL TAF SITES AFT 07/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS THE
REMNANTS LOW FROM THE LATE TROPICAL STORM GASTON MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

[cycloneye]

Good news with the 8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook for the NE Caribbean, as the % drops to 50.

MULTIPLE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GASTON REMAINS POORLY
DEFINED...AND THAT THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS AS
IT MOVES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall
Mon September 6 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 33.7C 93F trace
Couva, Central Trinidad 34.8C 95F 29.5mm
Crown Point, Tobago 32.1C 90F 0.4mm

Point Salines, Grenada 31.2C 88F trace
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.2C 88F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 32.4C 90F 0.3mm
Hewannora, St Lucia 32.1C 90F

Le Lamentin, Martinique 32.7C 91F 1.8mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 31.7C 89F 0.2mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.8C 87F trace
VC Bird, Antigua 31.0C 88F 0.3mm

Juliana Airport, St Maarten 32.0C 90F trace
San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.1C 88F trace

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 33.3C 92F 0.3mm
Kingston, Jamaica 33.4C 92F trace
Montego Bay, Jamaica 33.3C trace
Havana, Cuba 33.8C 93F 64.0mm

Hamilton, Bermuda 29.3C 85F 2.5mm

-justin-

[Macrocane]

Yesterday was a very rainy day in some places of El Salvador, but no damages were reported. The rainfall amounts in some stations:

El Salvador International Airport 100 mm/3.94 inches
Ilobasco 100 mm/3.94 inches
La Hachadura 65 mm/2.56 inches
Santa Ana 16 mm/0.63 inches
San Salvador 15 mm/0.59 inches
San Miguel 10 mm/0.39 inches

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1053 PM AST MON SEP 6 2010

.UPDATE...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GASTON...WAS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...AND
REMAINED FAIRLY DISORGANIZED. EARLIER SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ONLY MODERATE AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS WELL...AS THE SATELLITE DERIVED HOURLY
ESTIMATED RAINFALL/HYDRO-ESTIMATOR PRODUCT SHOWED A STEADY DECLINE
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND THIS FEATURE. IN
ADDITION...LATEST WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
SUGGESTED THAT BECAUSE THE REMNANTS OF GASTON REMAIN POORLY DEFINED...
AND THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
THERE IS NOW ONLY A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AS AN OPEN WAVE...WHILE THE NAM WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND BROUGHT
THE SYSTEM CLOSER TOO AND ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THAT SAID...AND REGARDLESS OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OR
NOT...STILL EXPECT FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY
TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ACCOMPANYING SQUALLS AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS
TIME...EXCEPT FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WINDS BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE... SHIP REPORTS AND BUOY DATA. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS SHOULD STILL REMAIN VIGILANT AND CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES AT LEAST THROUGH 07/12Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEAD BANDS OF FORMER TS GASTON WILL REACH TNCM AND TKPK AFTER 07/06Z...
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH THE VI BY 07/012Z AND
TJSJ AFT 07/16Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD TO TJPS...TJMZ...AND TJBQ...AFTER 07/16Z.

[Gustywind]

Good morning to all
000

FXCA62 TJSJ 070813
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
413 AM AST TUE SEP 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH WED.
RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A POLAR TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE NW ATLC. REMNANTS OF GASTON WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF FORMER TS GASTON ANALYZED
NEAR 17.1N AND 61.0W AT 06Z WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WWD NEXT 36 HRS
WITH THE REMNANTS EXPECTED TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF PR AND ST. CROIX
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS PRETTY
FAR NORTH FROM THE CIRCULATION PER BLENDED TPW IMAGERY. SO SHOULD
SEE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA NEXT 36 HRS. THESE
SHOULD BE MORE FREQUENT ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF PR AND THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM 270/18KT AND THE FACT THAT CORE
OF THE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKING AT DAVE ROTH'S TROPICAL CYCLONE PAGE FROM HPC
INDICATES BEST ANALOGS TO GASTON WERE TD JULIE IN 1978. THIS SYSTEM
PRODUCED LOCALIZED AMTS 1-3 INCHES.

IN TERMS OF WIND POTENTIAL...A 0152Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED A LARGE
SWATH OF 20-25 KT WINDS THAT EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS 20N. A NOAA
RAMMB ANALYSIS PAGE ALSO SHOWED AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER THAT EXTENDS TO 19N.

THINGS QUIET DOWN AFTER TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TRADES
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD STILL SEE YOUR
TYPICAL ISOLD/SCT WRN PR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT MODELS INDICATE PW
VALUES REMAINING WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY VALUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GOOD OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
ATLC HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. WITH ATLC RIDGE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS A POLAR TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NW ATLC MOST 00Z GFES
MEMBERS SHOW A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING RIGHT ALONG 60W WITH ANY TC'S
LIKELY TO MISS OUR AREA. BUT OF COURSE THIS IS A WEEK OUT IN ADVANCE
AND SYSTEM HAS YET TO DEVELOP.
&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL PR AND THE VI
TAF SITES THROUGH 07/12Z...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN PASSING
SHOWERS. SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TS GASTON WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT TNCM AND TKPK...RESULTING IN TEMPO MVFR CONDS AND GUSTY
WINDS. MVFR CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS IN SHRA/TSRA WILL OVERSPREAD
ACROSS THE VI BY 07/012Z AND TJSJ AROUND 07/16Z...REACHING
TJPS...TJMZ...AND TJBQ...AFT 07/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE ATLC WATERS
AND EASTERN PASSAGES. SEAS ALREADY RUNNING BETWEEN 6-9 FT AT BUOYS
TO THE NORTH THAT SHOULD BUILD INTO OUR LOCAL WATERS AS REMNANTS
OF GASTON MOVE WWD. SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY THU.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 77 / 70 80 80 30
STT 89 80 88 79 / 70 80 80 30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

23/64

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Here in San Juan, it all started around 3:30 AM with the first big band when heavy showers and loud thunder roared thru. But winds so far are normal in the 10-15 mph range.It looks like the rest of the day will be like this as the system moves westward.

[msbee]

good morning Luis

I hope Gusty is OK. It looks like he is getting the worst of it.
Here all is OK.
It's overcast, windy, but no rain.
airport reports at 8 AM that the wind is from the east at 21 MPH

[Gustywind]

good morning Luis

I hope Gusty is OK. It looks like he is getting the worst of it.
Here all is OK.
It's overcast, windy, but no rain.
airport reports at 8 AM that the wind is from the east at 21 MPH

Thanks Barbara i'm ok i have experienced a strong squall line but things are fairly calm now.

[cycloneye]

Here in San Juan, scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder have been the norm so far today.The winds have been in normal range but sometimes,they go up to above 25 mph. Lets see what the rest of the day brings as the low moves south of PR.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
232 PM AST TUE SEP 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A POLAR TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. REMNANTS OF GASTON WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM GASTON MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND MIMIC-TPW FROM
CIMSS SHOWED AN AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
THIS MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER...
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON...LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF VIEQUES
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST TPW PRODUCTS INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WELL ABOVE 2.0 INCHES FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

THESE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARDS AND AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
MASS WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY...
LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND EACH DAY TO
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA EACH
AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
THROUGH 07/23Z IN PASSING SHOWERS. SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER
TROPICAL STORM GASTON WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES...RESULTING IN TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ALL PR TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 08/12.


&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH WINDS ASSOCIATED TO REMNANT OF GASTON ARE NOT
AS STRONG AS FORECASTED...WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DANGEROUS CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THEREFORE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC
WATERS...INCLUDING THE ANEGADA PASSAGE.

[bvigal]

Good to hear from Gusty and Barbara that all OK in Guadeloupe and St. Martin. Looked like Guadeloupe had the biggest rains! Luis, sounds like you had the lightning a couple hours after it hit us.

Little "nothing" Gaston has caused my power to be out almost continuously since 1am, 3 outages but the "on" times were brief! First it was lightning, then wind. It was really dark this morning, almost like twilight. The wind was from NE so when rain started, closed the N and E windows. Then later had to close W windows the floor was wet, despite the large porch. Finally had to shut S windows, too, for a while. I hate that no breeze, especially with no power and fans. Wind not too bad, and we haven't had a lot of rain, just a few quick downpours, brief gusty winds but only to 25-30kt. (I'm at 1150ft)

Could not get weather done this morning, the power kept going out. My giant UPS says it has a full charge with 348 minutes, but after the power goes, it starts beeping "low" in 4 minutes. Arghh, don't know how I'm going to replace it.

[cycloneye]

Flood Advisory

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
213 PM AST TUE SEP 7 2010

PRC001-013-017-027-039-054-065-071-073-081-083-091-101-107-115-131-
141-072115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0397.100907T1813Z-100907T2115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-JAYUYA PR-ADJUNTAS PR-OROCOVIS PR-
MOROVIS PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-UTUADO PR-LAS MARIAS PR-
LARES PR-BARCELONETA PR-CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-MANATI PR-ARECIBO PR-
213 PM AST TUE SEP 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...CIALES...FLORIDA...JAYUYA...ADJUNTAS...OROCOVIS...
MOROVIS...QUEBRADILLAS...SAN SEBASTIAN...UTUADO...LAS MARIAS...
LARES...BARCELONETA...CAMUY...HATILLO...MANATI AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 515 PM AST

* AT 210 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
515 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 PM AST TUE SEP 7 2010

PRC015-025-029-031-037-053-063-069-077-085-089-095-103-109-119-127-
129-139-151-072315-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0398.100907T2027Z-100907T2315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-JUNCOS PR-GURABO PR-SAN LORENZO PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-
LAS PIEDRAS PR-ARROYO PR-LUQUILLO PR-PATILLAS PR-MAUNABO PR-
NAGUABO PR-CEIBA PR-CANOVANAS PR-FAJARDO PR-CAROLINA PR-HUMACAO PR-
SAN JUAN PR-RIO GRANDE PR-YABUCOA PR-
427 PM AST TUE SEP 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...JUNCOS...GURABO...SAN LORENZO...TRUJILLO ALTO...LAS
PIEDRAS...ARROYO...LUQUILLO...PATILLAS...MAUNABO...NAGUABO...
CEIBA...CANOVANAS...FAJARDO...CAROLINA...HUMACAO...SAN JUAN...
RIO GRANDE AND YABUCOA

* UNTIL 715 PM AST

* AT 421 PM AST... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND THE
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED OCCASIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND STREAMING ACROSS THESE AREAS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ESTIMATED ACCUMULATIONS TO
NEAR AN INCH HAD ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME OF THESE AREAS...AND
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE AT LEAST UNTIL 715
PM AST. THE RAINFALL WILL ALSO CAUSE QUICK RIVER RISES IN RIVERS
AND STREAMS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

[bvigal]

Holy Cow, Luis!! I just hit "refresh" on my radar. Looks like you guys are getting nailed over there!!!!

Having a lot of wind with those rains?

[cycloneye]

Holy Cow, Luis!! I just hit "refresh" on my radar. Looks like you guys are getting nailed over there!!!!

Having a lot of wind with those rains?

So far winds reported are not strong (Between 15-25 mph) The good news is those showers are moving fast not letting big accumulations. Lets see what tonight brings.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 PM AST TUE SEP 7 2010

PRC001-013-017-027-039-054-065-071-073-081-083-091-101-107-115-131-
141-080015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0400.100907T2116Z-100908T0015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-JAYUYA PR-ADJUNTAS PR-OROCOVIS PR-
MOROVIS PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-UTUADO PR-LAS MARIAS PR-
LARES PR-BARCELONETA PR-CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-MANATI PR-ARECIBO PR-
516 PM AST TUE SEP 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS REISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...CIALES...FLORIDA...JAYUYA...ADJUNTAS...OROCOVIS...
MOROVIS...QUEBRADILLAS...SAN SEBASTIAN...UTUADO...LAS MARIAS...
LARES...BARCELONETA...CAMUY...HATILLO...MANATI AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 815 PM AST

* AT 508 PM AST... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND THE
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR CONTINUED TO DETECT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STREAMING ACROSS THESE AREAS. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ESTIMATED ACCUMULATIONS TO NEAR AN INCH
HAD ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME OF THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE AT LEAST UNTIL 815 PM AST. THE RAINFALL
WILL ALSO CAUSE QUICK RIVER RISES IN RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA. MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN
DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall
Tue Sep 7 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 33.4C 92F 53.0mm
Crown Point, Tobago 31.8C 89F trace
Point Salines, Grenada 31.5C 89F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 32.8C 91F trace
Grantley Adams, Barbados 32.1C 90F 0.2mm

Hewannora, St Lucia 32.2C 90F 1.8mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 33.6C 93F
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 32.6C 91F 9.9mm

VC Bird, Antigua 30.6C 87F 5.1mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.3C 86F 7.4mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.7C 89F 29.0mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 32.6C 91F trace
Kingston, Jamaica 33.0C 91F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 33.9C 93F
Havana, Cuba 32.3C 90F 7.0mm
Nassau, Bahamas 32.8C 91F 3.0mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 29.5C 85F 15.5mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

Good morning. All is tranquil here after ex Gaston passed yesterday. Now we start to watch invest 91L.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
413 AM AST WED SEP 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN OVR THE
NEXT 36 HRS AS A POLAR TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WCNTRL ATLC.
TRADE WINDS TO RETURN TO THE BASIN TODAY AND PREVAIL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF GASTON NOW OUT OF THE PICTURE BUT PLENTY
OF LOW LVL MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. BLENDED
TPW IMAGERY SHOWS PW VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 2.25-2.5 INCHES EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON WRN PR
CONVECTION TODAY UNDER A MDT TRADE WIND FLOW AND AND M/CLEAR
SKIES. MUCH DRIER AIR EAST OF THE LEEWARDS WILL WORK QUICKLY INTO
THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION LIKELY TO DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET.

SAL AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THU AND FRI WITH PW VALUES
FCST TO DROP WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. FOR SAT...MODELS
ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF INDICATE A RAPID SURGE IN DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH GFS SHOWS
BEST BUT KEEPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN
SUN WITH DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

OVER THE NEXT 6-8 DAYS...WE`LL BE ALSO WATCHING WHAT IS LIKELY TO
BECOME A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL CAPE VERDE HURRICANE TO BE NAMED
"IGOR" AS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNANIMOUSLY PREDICTING OVR THE
PAST SVRL DAYS AND WHICH NHC HAS DESIGNATED AS INVEST 91L WITH A
50% CHANCE OF TC FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HRS. THIS SYSTEM STILL
6-8 DAYS FROM THREATENING ANY LAND AREAS. THE 08/00Z ECMWF BRINGS
THIS SYSTEM TO 20N AND 60W AND FARTHEST WEST THAN ANY OF THE REST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. RECURVATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON
THE EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF A POLAR TROUGH FCST TO TAKE PLACE
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS ERN NOAM WHICH ECMWF SHOWS THE LEAST
AMPLIFICATION AND GFS SHOWS THE STRONGEST. STILL MANY DAYS OUT
WITH A LOT OF ROOM FOR ERRORS IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
08/14Z...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
TJSJ...TISX...AND TIST. BTW 08/16Z-08/22Z...SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...RESULTING IN
MVFR CONDS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ AND
POSSIBLE TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS STILL RUNNING AROUND 2.1 METERS AT BUOY 41043 SO
WILL KEEP SCA FOR AMZ710 IN EFFECT. DIMINISHING TREND IN SEAS XPCD
OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.18 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT SAN JUAN/P.R.
YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 0.75 SET IN 1963