ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Bailey1777]

so based on that ascat michael posted and presuming we do after all still have a closed llc and we allow for 6 hours of westerly movement center should be tucked up under the heavyer cloud tops.

[Ivanhater]

Cold cloud tops continue to fire

[Sanibel]

Those model intensities show how dangerous these things are and how fine an edge they exist on between dissipation and a real threat. I hope people are keeping an eye on this.

[TwisterFanatic]

Well back when this was a TS, the models were holding this back until after it crossed this islands.

[floridasun78]

my news here in miami fl say that ex gaston look bad their no chance right now of reforming

[hurricaneCW]

This is the best it's looked on a convective level, but I'm pretty sure that's it's nothing more than just a wave. Just goes to show that not every disturbance in the peak of hurricane season will be able to develop even as it traverses in the very warm Caribbean waters.

[Sanibel]

Looks like curvature to me:

[Dean4Storms]

If it can keep this convection going overnight and deepen a bit more it could make it.

[Ivanhater]

You don't see this every day

[Aric Dunn]

You don't see this every day

no ... no you dont.. lol

[hurricaneCW]

Some of the intensity models have really been honking at a major storm from all of this, but it's just completely unrealistic. They've been showing this for days to and if they were to be correct 3 days ago, we would have been talking about Gaston at or near hurricane intensity right now.

[Bailey1777]

are those intensity models based on showing potential if things are just right or do they represent that things are expected to get just right? hope you get what iam asking.

[Sanibel]

It's my opinion we are looking at a system curling up in -obvious- cyclogenesis.

[5KOVERLIBOR]

You can over come some vertical instability issues if you have a highly divergent or even sheared environment such that there is enough lift to overcome a flat vertical temp gradient. we have seen this happen a few time.... if there is a pre existing surface trough or wave with sufficient surface convergence that moves into such a environment where it is moist in the low levels and highly divergent aloft or high shear then you can see convection build enough to intensify the surface feature enough likely a closed LLC so that it can increase the temp/dew point even more at the surface ( warm core ) so that the vertical temp and dew point gradient is increased enough to support organized convection deep in the atmosphere.

Aric, you've been a generous person with your knowledge today, much appreciation.

[Comanche]

Some of the intensity models have really been honking at a major storm from all of this, but it's just completely unrealistic. They've been showing this for days to and if they were to be correct 3 days ago, we would have been talking about Gaston at or near hurricane intensity right now.

Agreed, the perma-bullishness witnessed can be overwhelming at times.........

[BigA]

are those intensity models based on showing potential if things are just right or do they represent that things are expected to get just right? hope you get what iam asking.

They take conditions as they are expected to be, and then use them to calculate an intensity. For instance, it takes forecasted shear into account*

*It is hard to forecast shear.

[Ivanhater]

Bailey, the intensity models are based on the forecasted conditions in the next few days.

Remember, the LGEM is a reliable intensity model and is not one to go bonkers with every storm. Great potential is there.

It either dissipates, or explodes imo.

[fci]

You don't see this every day

no ... no you dont.. lol

I would guess that Gaston will make a terrific case study on models and forecasting.
They have been so all over the board with excessively high wind speeds and development for days now. So some input is not right.
Or it is simply chalked up to the unpredictability of Mother Nature?
Some real learning may come of Gaston after all!

[Steve]

>>They have been so all over the board with excessively high wind speeds and development for days now. So some input is not right.

Well they're not a lot better than dice rolls, but if you compare the 18z early intensity forecasts to last night's you will see that a couple of them have nudged the time frames up 18-24 hours. Wed. Night/Thursday was my target for "let's see what's happening", and it looks like we'll know by about midnight tomorrow if we do or do not have anything (as per the models). JMO

[Bailey1777]

michael that is exactly it. i believe it is an all or nothing system and if the wick gets lit imo the name gaston gets retired. for me alot of it has to do with his birth which was lightning quick. i dont get stuck on storms but theres just something about this one to me.