ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[KWT]

I see a system with slow movement this far east, then think about the general pattern for a weakness near say 60W this season combined with what will probably be a hurricane and what you have is the perfect recipe for a 60W recurve.

ps, this will really rake up the ACE, could easily see a 40-50 type system if this one ends up being a long lasting hurricane.

[ColinDelia]

Check out the shear forecast (from 12z SHIPS)

SHEAR::
0 hours. 29 knots of shear
6 hours. 30 knots
12 hours. 25 knots
18 hours. 26 knots
24 hours. 16 knots
36 hours. 17 knots
48-120 hours. Less than 10 knots of shear

[KWT]

Yeah the conditions look pretty good according to the models in the central Atlantic, but then again that region has hurt systems this season, for example Danielle weakened, Earl stayed steady and it also finished off Colin and Gaston (though the former came back later on) so we will see...

[Cyclone1]

Wow. I honestly did not expect to have Tropical Storm Igor today, to the point where I decided not to even bother checking.

[Vortmax1]

Check out the shear forecast (from 12z SHIPS)

SHEAR::
0 hours. 29 knots of shear
6 hours. 30 knots
12 hours. 25 knots
18 hours. 26 knots
24 hours. 16 knots
36 hours. 17 knots
48-120 hours. Less than 10 knots of shear

That's the forecast...now please come back with what actually happens after 48-120 hours.

[cycloneye]

CrazyC83, interesting that Best Track had this as a TD at 06z.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

AL, 11, 2010090806, , BEST, 0, 140N, 227W, 30, 1006, TD,

[masaji79]

Wow, tropics sure didn't waste any time pumping out a new storm. Plus not too far off the coast of Africa too.

[CrazyC83]

CrazyC83, interesting that Best Track had this as a TD at 06z.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

AL, 11, 2010090806, , BEST, 0, 140N, 227W, 30, 1006, TD,

That actually seems about right, heck a case could be made even at 0000Z that it was TD11 from what I remember (they don't normally issue a STDS for a distant system). It pretty much developed out of nowhere.

[masaji79]

Would the two other lows spinning near Igor hinder development? They seem to be in very close proximity.

[sandyb]

Although I'm 99% sure it will recurve, it should still be monitored, I mean the Cape Verde islands are already under the threat zone (very rare). Right now I'm guessing the point of recurvature will be similar to Danielle's or around 60-62W. This one could be a massive monster so you wouldn't want it getting any closer.

so what makes you 99% sure it is way to far away and right now no one knows they cant even predict these things two days out much less 2 weeks

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 11, 2010090818, , BEST, 0, 138N, 237W, 40, 1005, TS

Up to 40kts.

[wxman57]

Check out the shear forecast (from 12z SHIPS)

SHEAR::
0 hours. 29 knots of shear
6 hours. 30 knots
12 hours. 25 knots
18 hours. 26 knots
24 hours. 16 knots
36 hours. 17 knots
48-120 hours. Less than 10 knots of shear

That's the forecast...now please come back with what actually happens after 48-120 hours.

It's true that the shear forecasts have been quite bad this year. The models only know what's fed into them. If there's little data out there, then the forecasts of shear won't be very good. Garbage in, garbage out.

[wxman57]

Would the two other lows spinning near Igor hinder development? They seem to be in very close proximity.

The disturbance NE of Igor's center is already being drawn into the circulation of Igor. The one to the NW is insignificant.

[fci]

Igor is already eating it's young; the wave behind it will be absorbed according to the TWO.
The name Igor is scary to me, from Young Frankenstein, so I am mindful if this one and all "I" storms.
While a recurve is fairly common for a storm that develops so far east; the climatology (sorry, Rock) shows that storms DO make it all the way across and the 5 that have from this vicinity make the recurve something we need to SEE happen. It is a long way away and conditions can change a lot in the week or so it will take. Good to see someone already asking if it might be a GOM'er about 2 weeks out!

[HURAKAN]

IGOR

Gender: Masculine

Usage: Russian, Polish, Slovene, Croatian, Macedonian

Other Scripts: Игорь (Russian), Игор (Macedonian)

Pronounced: EE-gahr (Russian), EE-gawr (Polish) [key]
Russian form of Ingvarr (see INGVAR). It was brought to Russia by the Varangians in the 10th century. This name was borne by Igor Stravinsky (1882-1971), a Russian composer whose most famous work is 'The Rite of Spring'.

http://www.behindthename.com/name/igor

Meaning - Warrior archer http://babynamesworld.parentsconnect.co ... _Igor.html

[SootyTern]

Although I'm 99% sure it will recurve, it should still be monitored, I mean the Cape Verde islands are already under the threat zone (very rare). Right now I'm guessing the point of recurvature will be similar to Danielle's or around 60-62W. This one could be a massive monster so you wouldn't want it getting any closer.

so what makes you 99% sure it is way to far away and right now no one knows they cant even predict these things two days out much less 2 weeks

Actually the NHC is pretty dang good with their forecasts 2 days out, esp. for track. But, yeah, 2 weeks out you can't say for sure what will happen, although a recurve at sea is a pretty good bet.

[CrazyC83]

9/3/2 is exactly where we were when 2009 ended. It only took until September 8 to get that far this year.

[tallbunch]

A funny... I was watching the weather channel yesterday and they laughed Igor off and said there was less then a 5% chance there would be a igor from this system

[breaking wind]

Officially yes, but bonnie, colin and gaston were quite lame and probably wouldnt of been counted or even hardly noticed 40 years ago. Maybe just me but it seems like an average to slow year (so far) Hope it stays this way.

[hurricaneCW]

Well it's certainly not slow, especially if Igor becomes another major. Even if he doesn't, it's at least average to slightly above average. There's a good chance that Igor becomes a major and than the wave behind him becomes another named system. Gfs spins that one up to a hurricane as well. If that's the case than we'll be more so above average than average.