Caribbean development? (Is invest 92L)

[Vortex]

consensus is growing....

[Ivanhater]

Add the 12z UKMET jumping on the bandwagon

[Vortex]

sure looks like a go. Most all the models forecast some development with varying degrees of intensity....Canadian to the right and Euro to the left...

[Vortex]

H+78 NAM really winding up and appears to be a threat to PR





http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

[Vortex]

18Z NAM loop...most aggressive run thus far and threatening PR.





http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ivanhater]

Nam 84 hours

[Vortex]

very similar to the 12z canadian but stronger..looking at the synoptics towards the end of run a bend to the wnw looks likely....

[srainhoutx]

HGX comments this afternoon...

FWIW...THE TROPICS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT QUIET AS WE PASS OVER THE
AXIS OF THE BELL CURVE OF CYCLONE FREQUENCY. FALLING ON THE RIGHT
SIDE OF THIS CURVE THROUGH MID-SEPTEMBER IS ARBITRARY AS THE EURO
TAKES A WEAK SYSTEM FROM THE CARIBBEAN DUE WEST UNDER RIDGE INTO
THE YUCATAN/BAY OF CAMPECHE BY NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE EURO/GFS
STEER IGOR TOWARDS THE EAST COAST WITH A HOPEFUL EAST COAST TROUGH
STEERING IT MORE NORTH THAN EAST AT 240 HOURS. 31

[Bailey1777]

so in nutshell for easier understanding do i have this right?most models are seeing developement in the eastern car. and moving towards the yucatan with an eventual landfall somewhere around the tx. mex. border but there could be some weakening of the ridge that might allow it to go in a little higher up the tx coast.....all long range of course...

[Ivanhater]

so in nutshell for easier understanding do i have this right?most models are seeing developement in the eastern car. and moving towards the yucatan with an eventual landfall somewhere around the tx. mex. border but there could be some weakening of the ridge that might allow it to go in a little higher up the tx coast.....all long range of course...

You are starting to get too far into specifics. Right now we need to look at ridge set up not specific locations.

Canadian and Nam have a break in the ridge allowing this to get out of the Caribbean. Euro is further west and indications of a break down in the ridge. GFS is showing more of a surface reflection but not much. UKMET is now on board. Nogaps on board as well.

We will see how strong future models make this. I have a feeling a stronger system will get into the Gulf or Cuba and not plow straight into the Yucatan.

[Bailey1777]

got you michael i have a tendency to get tropicaly hyper as you know by the 40 it looks like i will be donating.

[cycloneye]

[Vortex]

I think we may get an invest later this evening and for sure by tomorrow...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

So this bad boy is lookin' to stir some trouble...more moisture with it
today and more convection...Could get Wild in the Caribbean.

[CrazyC83]

Should be 92L soon at this rate.

[Vortex]

18Z GFS at H+54 on it



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

Anyone have long range 12z CMC?

I didn't see much thru 144hrs

[wxman57]

If you look at the MIMIC-TPW loop, you'll see that the wave entering the eastern Caribbean is actually the same wave that spawned Gaston. Gaston just outran the wave axis over the last 3-4 days.

[Vortex]

long range is only issued on the 00z run..

[Wx_Warrior]

Thanks vort!