Caribbean development? (Is invest 92L)

[Ivanhater]

You don't have to have a trough to turn a hurricane KWT, rounding the edge of a high pressure center is enough. The trough that moved through the Conus, induced a weakness in the ridge that a larger storm could easily take advantage of.

[KWT]

Very true a system could well do that though of course with every upper high feature there has to be some sort of weakness with it relative to the upper high to some degree, its just where that lower heights are placed thats key obviously.

The reason why your idea wouldn't work though is becuase the progressive pattern is bringing in a new upper high, take a look at 240hrs on the eCM Heights:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

That upper high is clear as day in the Texas region and there is a ridge present to its east as well...there IS as you rightfully say a weakness present but its real weak.

The set-up is enough probably to give the system more of a WNW motion for sure BUT as the eCM suggests the pattern it has would shunt the system WSW/W...because of the building upper high.

Haha it'll probably all change again tomorrow anyway!

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR A FEW HUNDRED
MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES
LITTLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Ivanhater]

Well have to agree to disagree KWT and wait for the next model data to debate

Up to 20 percent I see...

[ronjon]

Hey IH and KWT, you guys are debating something out 200+ hours in the models. Let's see if a system develops first and then worry about where it goes. I agree, any system that develops down here could be big trouble for the region.

[gatorcane]

Both

GFS and Euro are showing the weakness with the ridge. Long way out, gonna be a long week!

Not so sure about that. Model support is pretty-lackluster except the euro which keeps it pretty weak. With igor quite possibly hitting a weakness and recurving, it may just be a pretty uneventful next week or more for those in the United States. I'm still thinking October will be the eventful month at least for landfalling systems for the U.S.

[ronjon]

Both

GFS and Euro are showing the weakness with the ridge. Long way out, gonna be a long week!

Not so sure about that. Model support is pretty-lackluster except the euro which keeps it pretty weak. With igor quite possibly hitting a weakness and recurving, it may just be a pretty uneventful next week or more for those in the United States. I'm still thinking October will be the eventful month at least for landfalling systems for the U.S.

Ah GC, did you see the 18z GFS. Here it is:

[Bailey1777]

gator what are you talking about michael showed model after model .

[gatorcane]

Hmmm missed that run. So there is some model support but let's see if the gfs continues to show development. That is the first run that shows this

[Bailey1777]

18z shooting the gap.that would be nasty.

[lonelymike]

GFS agrees with the Euro....well it is the 18zGFS

[Vortex]

Looking at the radar out of martinique, 2345z IR2, and surface obs it certainly appears that we have surface circulation beginning to form just se of barbados moving slowly wnw.....

Invest should be up later tonight...

[ROCK]

I am going to have to side with Ivan on this one....though 240hr for the ECM and GFS is la la land its all going to depend on where the weakness is ends up setting up shop..Brownsville to FL right now if it does track into the GOM.....a MX threat is probably less likely given the current pattern we are in...

[Vortex]

Maybe this is why the canadian/nam/nogaps lift the system north before turning back west...

NWS San Juan this afternoon:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST WED SEP 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS AS A POLAR TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.

[cycloneye]

Observations from Trinidad & Tobago show west and westsouthwest winds.

Code: Select all

8 PM (0) Sep 08 77 (25) 69 (21) 29.88 (1012) W 3 light rain; showers in the vicinity
 7 PM (23) Sep 08 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) WSW 13 rain showers; showers in the vicinity


[Vortex]

Notice how the wind shifted to the wsw/sw over Trinidad during the last 4 hours....




8:00 AM 66.2 °F 60.8 °F 83% 30.01 in 5.0 miles South 4.6 mph - N/A Clear
9:00 AM 71.6 °F 60.8 °F 69% 30.01 in 6.2 miles South 9.2 mph - N/A Clear
10:00 AM 77.0 °F 60.8 °F 57% 30.01 in 6.2 miles South 9.2 mph - N/A Clear
11:00 AM 82.4 °F 59.0 °F 45% 30.01 in 6.2 miles South 9.2 mph - N/A Clear
12:00 PM 86.0 °F 59.0 °F 40% 29.98 in 6.2 miles SSE 9.2 mph - N/A Clear
1:00 PM 89.6 °F 59.0 °F 36% 29.92 in 6.2 miles SE 9.2 mph - N/A Clear
2:00 PM 90 °F 59 °F 26% 29.86 in 6 miles SE 6.9 mph - - Smoke
2:00 PM 89.6 °F 59.0 °F 36% 29.86 in 6.2 miles SE 6.9 mph - N/A Clear
3:00 PM 91.4 °F 60.8 °F 36% 29.83 in 5.0 miles ESE 6.9 mph - N/A Clear
4:00 PM 91.4 °F 62.6 °F 38% 29.80 in 5.0 miles SSW 5.8 mph - N/A Clear
5:00 PM 87.8 °F 68.0 °F 52% 29.80 in 5.0 miles WSW 5.8 mph - N/A Clear
6:00 PM 84.2 °F 68.0 °F 58% 29.80 in 5.0 miles SW 3.5 mph - N/A Clear
7:00 PM 80.6 °F 68.0 °F 65% 29.80 in 3.7 miles SW

[Vortex]

The NAM one of the first models to pick up on this potential system begins rolling in a few minutes...It was also one of the first models to pick up on Hermine...The last 6 runs have been very close to identical in terms of track...The last run was stronger than prior runs but the consistency is what Ill be looking for on the 00z run about to roll.

[jlauderdal]

The NAM one of the first models to pick up on this potential system begins rolling in a few minutes...It was also one of the first models to pick up on Hermine...The last 6 runs have been very close to identical in terms of track...The last run was stronger than prior runs but the consistency is what Ill be looking for on the 00z run about to roll.

if that system can roll through the Caribbean and get up towards the caymans, watch out, plenty of juice up there to work with...these systems that develop inside of 60 are much more of a concern for landfall than the headline cape verde stuff

[Vortex]

For those that don't have it here's the Martinique radar..May come in handy the next few days..There appears to be some rotation both on the IR2 and radar about 65 miles e/ese of Barbados.


http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[Ivanhater]

Canadian Ensemble long range..Florida Straits