Caribbean development? (Is invest 92L)

[Wx_Warrior]

Throw that scenario into the mix!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Canadian Ensemble long range..Florida Straits

That wouldnt be pretty.

[Bailey1777]

what does the whole run look like is it heading into the straits from the south and heading out or from the east and into the gom?

[wxman57]

For now, it's just a possible development. I'd still say that most likely it would head to Mexico if it develops. One thing I can guarantee - it'll screw up my upcoming weekend off, after I worked Labor Day weekend with Hermine. Or maybe it'll wait until early next week to flare up...

[Wx_Warrior]

Let's hope so!

[Bailey1777]

shouldnt ex gastons movement give us a clue to where this possible developement should move?

[Ivanhater]

I suspect this will designated 92L in the morning and we will have additional model guidance, although the globals are giving us great guidance already.

[gatorcane]

For now, it's just a possible development. I'd still say that most likely it would head to Mexico if it develops. One thing I can guarantee - it'll screw up my upcoming weekend off, after I worked Labor Day weekend with Hermine. Or maybe it'll wait until early next week to flare up...

I'm really not sold on development. If that is the case should head across the Caribbean into Mexico as a strong tropical wave. Proximity to south America now should thwart development at least for the next few days. Development chances improve somewhat in the western Caribbean.

[Wx_Warrior]

NAM 0z 55Hrs

[Wx_Warrior]

[Vortex]

H+66 organizing and headed slowly NW...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow...now this has model support...looking strong.

[Wx_Warrior]

[Vortex]

should continue to the n/nw as there is a ridge to the east and a weakness to the north before turning back wnw as the trough passes by.

[Vortex]

NAM makes complete sense given the forecasted synoptics and strengthening cyclone...

[gatorcane]

If it develops quickly looks like it heads for a weakness. You can see the weakness the nam shows on the 500mb flow. Trough is digging in the western Atlantic. Of course I doubt it develops this quickly. Remember it is the nam!

[Ivanhater]

The NAM is advertising a large Monsoon type development. Might take some time to consolidate all that tropical moisture.

Moisture doesn't seem to be a problem

[Wx_Warrior]

Don't put all your chips in with the NAM. A few runs had Hermine with me!

Like Ive said, most showing development now.

[Vortex]

The canadian and to a lesser extent the nogaps have similar solutions

[Weatherfreak000]

Now I think it may be decent chance of saying we are looking at the J storm before the 10th. Unbelievable.

At this rate, I can truly believe we can make it to hyperactivity this season.