ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

#181 Postby **supercane** » Wed Sep 08, 2010 11:05 pm

Latest ASCAT from 00Z:

Easterly shear still present, but better days ahead:

dwsqos2 · #182 Postby **dwsqos2** » Thu Sep 09, 2010 1:44 am

Watching storms struggle in the extreme eastern portion of the basin is hideously boring.

alan1961 · #183 Postby **alan1961** » Thu Sep 09, 2010 1:49 am

I overlaid the low to mid level dry air on that map supercane,
seems to have entrained in on the eastern side of the circulation
a little keeping the convection down but overall the dry air
dont look to bad in the near future.

Water Vapour

#184 Postby **ColinDelia** » Thu Sep 09, 2010 3:50 am

6z SHIPS has the shear starting to relax in a few hours

0 hour: 23 knots of shear
6: 16 knots
12: 14 knots
24: 11 knots

leanne_uk · #185 Postby **leanne_uk** » Thu Sep 09, 2010 4:11 am

Then quite simply dont click on the topic!

dwsqos2 wrote:Watching storms struggle in the extreme eastern portion of the basin is hideously boring.

KWT · #186 Postby **KWT** » Thu Sep 09, 2010 5:10 am

Pattern in the Atlantic, esp deeper into the basin looks favourable for a decent hurricane to form from this system, whether or not it becomes a major is too early to tell but a long tracker is looking just about a certainty.

Track is looking like being safely out to sea with this one...though Bermuda and SE Canada obviously do need to watch this still even if the track does look fairly safe this time round.

#187 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 09, 2010 5:35 am

Igor is still getting easterly shear.

KWT · #188 Postby **KWT** » Thu Sep 09, 2010 5:41 am

Igor may well get downgraded because that presentation looks really poor at the moment to be honest....

#189 Postby **USTropics** » Thu Sep 09, 2010 6:37 am

To go along with the shear, dry air is noted caught in the inflow. A lot of convection to the west of the vorticity though, so once the shear relaxes it should be able to work the dry air out.

KWT · #190 Postby **KWT** » Thu Sep 09, 2010 7:09 am

The models are still very keen to make this a hurricane as well so I've got no reason to believe this one won't make it past the relativly less condusive set-up aloft right now.

#191 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 09, 2010 7:23 am

12z Best Track

Remains as a 35kt Tropical Storm.

AL, 11, 2010090912, , BEST, 0, 144N, 244W, 35, 1006, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

#192 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Thu Sep 09, 2010 8:00 am

KWT wrote:The models are still very keen to make this a hurricane as well so I've got no reason to believe this one won't make it past the relativly less condusive set-up aloft right now.

Sounds a lot like Gaston.

#193 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 09, 2010 8:11 am

Latest

KWT · #194 Postby **KWT** » Thu Sep 09, 2010 8:18 am

I suspect Igor is just a depression now, looks like its weakened a little further and the LLC doesn't look quite as strong.

eastcoastFL · #195 Postby **eastcoastFL** » Thu Sep 09, 2010 8:41 am

KWT wrote:Pattern in the Atlantic, esp deeper into the basin looks favourable for a decent hurricane to form from this system, whether or not it becomes a major is too early to tell but a long tracker is looking just about a certainty.

Track is looking like being safely out to sea with this one...though Bermuda and SE Canada obviously do need to watch this still even if the track does look fairly safe this time round.

This doesn't concern you a little bit about the track?

THE STEERING PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS BEEN QUITE
PERSISTENT AND CONSISTS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE BASIN AND A BROAD TROUGH OSCILLATING BETWEEN THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. THIS
STEERING PATTERN WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
CONTINUE...WOULD FAVOR A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THEN A TURN MORE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

#196 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 09, 2010 8:53 am

Latest

HUC · #197 Postby **HUC** » Thu Sep 09, 2010 8:59 am

Why Igor not yet on Goes floater???

KWT · #198 Postby **KWT** » Thu Sep 09, 2010 9:01 am

eastcoastFL wrote:This doesn't concern you a little bit about the track?

THE STEERING PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS BEEN QUITE
PERSISTENT AND CONSISTS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE BASIN AND A BROAD TROUGH OSCILLATING BETWEEN THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. THIS
STEERING PATTERN WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
CONTINUE...WOULD FAVOR A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THEN A TURN MORE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

A mean WNW track considering its close to 15N now would probably put this system more then far enough north by 55-65W to get lifted out by the weakness, esp if its a hurricane.

#199 Postby **tolakram** » Thu Sep 09, 2010 9:03 am

HUC wrote:Why Igor not yet on Goes floater???

Too far east, too much distortion.

#200 Postby **bvigal** » Thu Sep 09, 2010 9:05 am

HUC wrote:Why Igor not yet on Goes floater???

HUC - goes range for floaters is at about 30W, see http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg

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