ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Windward islands area.

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2010, DB, O, 2010090912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922010
AL, 92, 2010090812, , BEST, 0, 118N, 583W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010090818, , BEST, 0, 119N, 587W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010090900, , BEST, 0, 120N, 591W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010090906, , BEST, 0, 121N, 596W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010090912, , BEST, 0, 122N, 602W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest


Thread that discussed all about this system at Talking Tropics.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109304&hilit=&start=0

[ColinDelia]

This has been the most interesting invest of the year IMO. Really fascinating from the way the globals have forecasted it up until now.

[Migle]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON IGOR ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON IGOR ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
NNNN

[KWT]

This IMO is the one we've been waiting for, conditions look condusive for slow development and given its starting place its going to hit land somewhere.

Some disagreements with the models with regards to the track as well with the GFS/ECM being further south and the CMC/Nogaps/NAM being further north, in a developing system its not easy to call the first 24-36hrs motion.

Either way this is going to be a threat, probably the biggest since Alex for the W.Gulf states at least.

[expat2carib]

This is definitely one to watch for the islanders. With the climatological peak only one day away and a possible northern track it might affect many of the local islands.

[hurricaneCW]

Probably another Mexican landfall, that's what the gfs shows right now and it would fit the pattern we're in. Igor will recurve, this one will hit Mexico and the U.S. is sitting pretty.

[KWT]

Whilst I think that is the most likely option its way too far out to make that sort of call Hurricanecw, as you know I'm happy to make a call like that when I'm confident from even 10 days out but IMO still a little early in the game.

If I was in the Yucatan, W/C.Gulf states, Mexico and probably Cuba as well I'd be keeping a VERY close eye on this one.

This might become a classic La Nina Caribbean hurricane by the time it gets in the W.Caribbean.

Most models have this with us for the next 10 days as well FWIW.

[Vortex]

I think it will be interesting to see how the weakness progged to develop over the western atlantic and North of PR will interact or not with this system as the polar trough swings by...

[hurricaneCW]

It's going to be unfortunate for Mexico, they've been gettiing battered this season and this one could end up being really powerful. It's going to be tapping into the warmest waters in the Atlantic basin, who knows how strong it could get. It's intensity may eventually allow for a more northward track but the ridge across the gulf states is in no hurry to leave. The U.S. chances of being hit will probably go way up by late September into October when the troughs are strong enough to finally break down the gulf states ridge.

The storm I fear the most is an Opal like storm, which is a real possibility this season.

[KWT]

Yeah it sure will be Vortex, I suspect it'll lift up a little more then some of the models are currently expecting, maybe upto say 15-16N before the W/WNW motion kicks in as all the models suggest it will, esp if it strengthens a little quicker then expected...

That being said I doubt the CMC/NAM solution comes off.

HCW...the W.Gulf needs to watch this closely, no way is this *just* a Mexico/Yucatan affair, its way too early to make that call as I just said, even if it is the most likely solution in a La Nina.

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

Lots of convection down there and interestingly the greatest vort is a little to the east of the islands so I wonder whether that'll be the region that ends up trying to develop?

[Aric Dunn]

So to comment on the Nogaps and CMC. they both bring the system farther north in the organizational time frame which at least in a Physics point of view makes sense. there is no real weakness to allow a northerly motion like that so it is likely just dynamical motion. The point being... if the system does end up that far north initially then the weakness in the ridge that develops with the first trough maybe enough to take it north of the islands especially if it strengthens quickly. It however would be very unlikely to be picked up as its not a huge weakness.


there is a weak rotation developing just WSW of Barbados...

[Aric Dunn]

The floater is up to now..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[chrisjslucia]

Clear overnight. At dawn in the north of St Lucia, clear views to Martinique and the Pitons from here but very heavy rain has been moving along the East Coast NW along the Island and now heavy rain clouds moving into us from SSE / SE. Can still see Martinique but the hills to the south of us are covered in cloud and the rain is visible. Breeze picking up, mainly from SE but seems to be switching back and to, ESE. Trinidad reporting storms and winds of 30 mph plus.
I wondered when this would arrive and it looks as if it will do so imminently, but we are only just within its northern edge and it seems more to be moving more westerly than I had guessed. Puerto Rico bound or further south? Hopefully the Leewards will get a break this time.

[KWT]

Interesting Aric, I was thinking this one perhaps gains a little more latitude then expected by some of the models though I do think the Yucatan-Mexico route is the most likely of the lot.

That sure does look like a developing system down there btw Aric!

[Vortex]

Martinique radar




http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

Looking good Cycloneye on that image. Obviously if this one was to wrap up quickly it'd be a possible threat to the Windward Islands.

System will probably lift out to the NW over the next 48-72hrs before the upper trough moves away and the system bends back to the west again.

Going to be a long ole week!

[WmE]

It's in the vicinity where Felix bombed out 2007. Needs to be watched.