ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#141 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 09, 2010 7:00 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looks to be putting out a lot of outflow boundaries this afternoon. I'd say no TD until maybe Sunday or Monday. No evidence of an LLC presently. It'll take quite a while to organize.


These sorts of systems do tend to take a while, I know the models have backed off somewhat but quite a few did't really get going till later...

Quite a few take a real interesting track to the NW/NNW, will be interesting to see if it verifies.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#142 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 09, 2010 7:06 pm

I went 20% for next 48 hrs and 60% thereafter. Not a guarantee of development by any means.
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Re: Re:

#143 Postby abajan » Thu Sep 09, 2010 7:07 pm

chrisjslucia wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Meteo-France Guadeloupe and Martinique don't waste any time and prefer to be vigilant with 92L in the area. Consequently, yellow alert have been required for both islands this afternoon 5PM for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. Wet weather conditions are expected til Sunday morning in Guadeloupe. For those who are interrested :) here is the french version of the latest advisories code Yellow :rarrow: http://www.meteo.gp/index.php?page=Incl ... e=spe_gene


Hi Gusty, used my rusty French to read the Martinique alert. I'm puzzled by comments here and the reports from Grenada, Barbados and St Vincent as well as the Meteo's forecast for wind speeds, although rainfall of a 100mm seems consistent with experience further south.

Friends in St Vincent and Grenada say it is continuous heavy rain and little wind. Barbados reports intermittent rain and showers. I don't see how this is centred on Barbados, the position and rain seems further west and south of that, with 92 shuffling NW at a very slow speed. Any insights from your part of the island chain as to where it is and where it's headed?

Here’s how Frengly.com translated the PDF document for Guadeloupe, in part:

Current Status and Observations

A rain-storm disturbance is located on Barbados. At the front, sometimes heavy showers are triggered already on Guadeloupe. It was thus observed today, 20 liters per m2 on Basse-Terre, 50 litres/m2 mountain. The Northern Great Earth was somewhat concerned, but on the south there are 15 to 40 litres/m2 litres/m2 the area Pointe a Pitre / Gosier.

WEATHER

The rain gradually become more frequent over the next two days. They will be accompanied by thunderstorms and give significant accumulations in places. The southeast wind will increase as well, blowing up to 40 km / h with gusts exceeding 80 km / h in the storm. The sea will grow moderately , between 1.50m and 2m, but will take an unusual direction southeast.

Summary

The risk of occurrence of the phenomenon is moderate to strong impact is expected to moderate

Validity - duration of the phenomenon

Validity scheduled until Sunday morning. Next update: tomorrow Friday, September 10 before 6:30

Clearly, something got “lost in translation.” :)
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#144 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 09, 2010 7:13 pm

really "drying" up tonight...
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Re: Re:

#145 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 09, 2010 7:15 pm

abajan wrote:
chrisjslucia wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Meteo-France Guadeloupe and Martinique don't waste any time and prefer to be vigilant with 92L in the area. Consequently, yellow alert have been required for both islands this afternoon 5PM for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. Wet weather conditions are expected til Sunday morning in Guadeloupe. For those who are interrested :) here is the french version of the latest advisories code Yellow :rarrow: http://www.meteo.gp/index.php?page=Incl ... e=spe_gene


Hi Gusty, used my rusty French to read the Martinique alert. I'm puzzled by comments here and the reports from Grenada, Barbados and St Vincent as well as the Meteo's forecast for wind speeds, although rainfall of a 100mm seems consistent with experience further south.

Friends in St Vincent and Grenada say it is continuous heavy rain and little wind. Barbados reports intermittent rain and showers. I don't see how this is centred on Barbados, the position and rain seems further west and south of that, with 92 shuffling NW at a very slow speed. Any insights from your part of the island chain as to where it is and where it's headed?

Here’s how Frengly.com translated the PDF document for Guadeloupe, in part:

Current Status and Observations

A rain-storm disturbance is located on Barbados. At the front, sometimes heavy showers are triggered already on Guadeloupe. It was thus observed today, 20 liters per m2 on Basse-Terre, 50 litres/m2 mountain. The Northern Great Earth was somewhat concerned, but on the south there are 15 to 40 litres/m2 litres/m2 the area Pointe a Pitre / Gosier.

WEATHER

The rain gradually become more frequent over the next two days. They will be accompanied by thunderstorms and give significant accumulations in places. The southeast wind will increase as well, blowing up to 40 km / h with gusts exceeding 80 km / h in the storm. The sea will grow moderately , between 1.50m and 2m, but will take an unusual direction southeast.

Summary

The risk of occurrence of the phenomenon is moderate to strong impact is expected to moderate

Validity - duration of the phenomenon

Validity scheduled until Sunday morning. Next update: tomorrow Friday, September 10 before 6:30

Clearly, something got “lost in translation.” :)

Thanks Abajan :) very good job my friend. So for the next episodes you won't miss anything! :P
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#146 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 09, 2010 7:23 pm

Image
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#147 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 09, 2010 7:46 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 100005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...


A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 16N59W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N61W...TO 10N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO
15N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO IS OCCURRING
IN AN AREA OF A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY IS AFFECTING
THE ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND MAYBE IN
NEARBY VENEZUELA.


$$

MT
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#148 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 09, 2010 7:52 pm

Based on that above data, the pressure is 1008mb. The SE Caribbean typically has high background pressures, correct?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#149 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 09, 2010 7:54 pm

Best Track

AL, 92, 2010090918, , BEST, 0, 123N, 610W, 20, 1009, DB
AL, 92, 2010091000, , BEST, 0, 123N, 610W, 20, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest


Here are the last two best track updates (18z/00z) and you can see it's stationary at this time.
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#150 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Sep 09, 2010 8:02 pm

I'll be surprised if this gets going for at least 2 days. Little Convergence and not much divergence aloft.
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#151 Postby wx247 » Thu Sep 09, 2010 8:05 pm

When all else fails and the convection dries up, show the Meteo France satellite... it makes any disturbance look like a tropical storm!!! 8-)
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#152 Postby bvigal » Thu Sep 09, 2010 8:10 pm

00z fix location
Image
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#153 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 09, 2010 8:14 pm

Major flood threat for the Windwards right now? I wonder if a reports thread should be made for 92L?
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#154 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 09, 2010 8:54 pm

Well as I mentioned last night on this system did not expect any development until maybe the western caribbean. Likely just a pulsing tropical wave traversing the caribbean with no development then inland into Mexico.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#155 Postby expat2carib » Thu Sep 09, 2010 8:59 pm

Looks like nothing really happening in the islands at the moment.

Image
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#156 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Sep 09, 2010 9:01 pm

I agree, perhaps we jumped the gun on this one. And some people were already talking about landfall points. :lol:


Vorticity appears to be dissipating rapidly. If it does not refire very soon it's chances are going to drop off.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#157 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Sep 09, 2010 9:04 pm

Not one model had this developing today. Everything happening now is expected.

If nothing happens in 2 days, that's a different story.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#158 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Sep 09, 2010 9:17 pm

Personally, I think 92L is a fish storm that is going to recurve! :D

Sorry, just kidding.
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#159 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 09, 2010 9:42 pm

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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Discussion

#160 Postby boca » Thu Sep 09, 2010 9:47 pm

Nothing left of 92L except for a thin cirrus deck.
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