ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[Wx_Warrior]

When is the "nw" movement supposed to begin?

[Ivanhater]

The structure looks miles better today with the evident banding.

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[HURAKAN]

Looks better but still miles away from becoming a tropical depression. I'm pretty sure the RECON mission will be cancelled.

[cycloneye]

Looks better but still miles away from becoming a tropical depression. I'm pretty sure the RECON mission will be cancelled.

That mission is for tommorow afternoon as yesterdays TCPOD said. Lets see what today's TCPOD says.

[HURAKAN]

Looks better but still miles away from becoming a tropical depression. I'm pretty sure the RECON mission will be cancelled.

That mission is for tommorow afternoon as yesterdays TCPOD said. Lets see what today's TCPOD says.

Somehow I though today was the 11th! Too much Calculus 3 can do that!!

[HURAKAN]

HPC likes the ECMWF solution

[HURAKAN]

72 hours

[Bailey1777]

question on the day 7 map that low depicted in the tx panhandle would that induce a weakness? just trying to learn.

[MGC]

40% chance looks generous to me....but I know things can change quickly this time of year.....MGC

[HURAKAN]

Last night wxman57 said, "20% for the next 48 hours and 60% thereafter"

[Bailey1777]

i got to thinking about the percentages put out by the nhc and i think we take to much out of them considering they are based on 48 hr's. so if in 120 hr's they were very confident say 80 percent but did not think it would form for 72 hrs then they would give a low percent or maybe lower a prior percent not because it wasnt going to form but because it was going to take longer.expectation of formation that is.

[RL3AO]

Looks like a future tropical cyclone to me. Probably not for another 3 to 4 days though.

[jlauderdal]

Last night wxman57 said, "20% for the next 48 hours and 60% thereafter"

(20+60)/2=40

[wxman57]

As with Alex, this one won't be developing quickly. It'll take another few days of persistent convection. Might be something for recon to examine by Sunday. More likely on Monday. I think we'll have a TS next Tuesday. I'd say the chances of 92L becoming a TD within 48 hours are closer to 10%. Even 20% is too generous for a TD by noon Sunday.

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... mtcbarvis2



Latest

[KWT]

Yeah I agree wxman57, this one won't be quickly developing and probably will take several days yet...if not even longer if it does decide to get close to Hispaniola/Cuba like a few models suggest.

Still there is a pretty strong signal from the models for this to develop I'd imagine it will get going in the end, possibly in C.Caribbean or close to the Bahamas depending on what solution comes off...

Personally the ECM solution looks more realistic.

[StormClouds63]

It's got a long way to go to equal Alex.

[Red Seal]

TD by Sunday evening

[mascpa]

Welcome to the board, RS. First ever post.